Thursday, November 18, 2010

JC's Take: Week 11 NFL Picks

JC's Take: Week 11 NFL Picks

Hello everyone! Welcome back for my Week 11 NFL Picks. Lets get right to it!

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

This is the Thursday night game this week. It has big implications for both teams. The Bears are 6-3, the Dolphins 5-4. Both teams need this win to keep pace in their respective playoff pictures. The Dolphins probably need this win a little more, because there are more teams in playoff contention in the AFC. Miami is going with Tyler Thigpen at QB because of injuries to Chad Henne and Chad Pennington. Thigpen is a mobile passer who can handle himself quite well. He had a pretty good year in Kansas City a couple of years ago. The Bears are coming off of a good home performance against the Vikings. Jay Cutler has played well the past couple of games. I also think the Bears have an edge in the Special Teams department. Devin Hester can break off a punt return in an instant. The Dolphins special teams got gashed by New England earlier in the year, and while it may be fixed, it can be broken just as easily. I give the slight edge to the Bears because they are healthier and have a better special teams.

Chicago 23  Miami 17

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

Congrats to the Bills for their first win last week. They've fought hard all year and deserve it. They're probably better than their 1-8 record indicates. The same could be said for the Bengals. They're much better then their 2-7 record, especially offensively. This game also has Terrell Owens facing the team he played for last year. The Bengals have been major disappointments this year. They were expected to be contending for a Wild Card spot at the very least. The Bills were expected to be bad, but at least they've been entertaining. Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven he can step in and play quite well. He's not the future, but he's a nice bridge to it. The Bills defense has also played better the last couple of weeks. But I'm giving the edge to the Bengals here. They have more talent and are playing at home.

Cincinnati 31  Buffalo 26

Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

Maybe the Cowboys really did quit on Wade Phillips. They looked like a completely different team under Jason Garrett last week. They went into New York and dominated the Giants, who had been playing great football the past couple of weeks. The Lions meanwhile are stuck in limbo. They have the young talent, but can't stay healthy. They fell to the Bills last week, but have nobody to blame but themselves. They couldn't run the ball against one of the worst run defenses in the league. I'm giving this one to the Cowboys. Playing at home, and more motivated under Jason Garrett.

Dallas 28  Detroit 19

Washington Redskins vs Tennessee Titans

Talk about being humiliated. The Redskins, at home in front of a nationally televised audience, got absolutely whooped by the Eagles. They were taken to the woodshed. How you come back from a loss like that is beyond me. The Titans, meanwhile, disappointed in Miami last week. They were essentially beaten by a 3rd string quarterback. Randy Moss disappointed in his Titan debut. Hopefully he can do better with a pass defense that was torched by Mike Vick last week. I'm going with the Titans here in a close one. The Redskins will be out to make people forget about Monday night, but the Titans are the better team and can put pressure on Donovan McNabb.

Tennessee 27  Washington 23

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Cardinals are a team with no direction. They have no QB, are being run over on defense, and have a star WR who they can't get the ball too. They aren't out of the NFC West race, but they are probably the farthest away from winning it. The Chiefs have lost two straight and were embarrassed by the Broncos last week. So much so that Todd Haley didn't shake Josh McDaniels hand afterward. I guess someone got their feelings hurt. Anyways, the Chiefs need this win. They can't lose three in a row and keep pace in the AFC West. I'm sure they'll be happy to be back home. Expect a heavy dose of RB Jamaal Charles.

Kansas City 30  Arizona 14

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

So first it's Favre's ankle, now his shoulder. How long until humpty-dumpty can't be put back together again? The Vikings are in disarray and have no answers. Brad Childress feels obligated to play Brett Favre, but he should consider playing a healthy Tavaris Jackson. He might be a better option. The Packers are healthy coming off a bye, and you know they have to be looking forward to playing a wounded Brett Favre. I don't see the Vikings playing well here. As a matter of fact, I like the Packers in a rout here. And expect Chilly to be gone Monday.

Green Bay 35  Minnesota 20

Houston Texans vs New York Jets

Last year the Jets went to Houston Week 1 and won in Mark Sanchez's debut. The Jets have won the past two weeks, but they've had to squeak them out. They're 7-2 but could just as easily be 5-4. The Texans have to be considered a disappointment. After their Week 1 win against Indianapolis, they've gone downhill. Last week they lost on a heart-breaking hail mary pass against Jacksonville. The Texans defense is having problems stopping anything at this point. I think the Texans are a team falling, and the Jets could deliver the knock out blow.

NY Jets 27  Houston 13

Oakland Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Last year, Oakland went into Pittsburgh and shocked the Steelers 27-24. Now the Raiders are playing better football, and are rested coming off of a bye week. The Steelers are coming off being dominated by the Patriots at home on Sunday night. They're a better team than what we saw on Sunday. The Raiders have an absolute brutal schedule down the stretch. They have 3 division games, plus road games at Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, and home games against Miami and Indianapolis. The Raiders can win this game, but they need to play a near flawless game in order to do that. I like the Steelers here though. I would never bet on the Steelers losing two at home.

Pittsburgh 28  Oakland 24

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers

I'm not going to over-analyze this. The Panthers are starting Brian St. Pierre at QB. He wasn't on the team two weeks ago. The Ravens have a good defense that can pressure the QB. LOCK OF THE YEAR!

Baltimore 41  Carolina 10

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The Browns almost pulled off another upset last week against the Jets. They are a dangerous team for playoff teams down the stretch. The Jaguars had their prayers (haha) answered last week when they won on a last second Hail Mary pass. The Jaguars have been playing some good football offensively the last couple of weeks, and they are right back in the AFC South race. But as I said, the Browns are a good football team. I see them going into Jacksonville and shutting down the Jags. It'll be another close one, but I think the Browns pull it off.

Cleveland 23  Jacksonville 21

Atlanta Falcons vs St. Louis Rams

The Falcons staked their claim to being one of the best teams in the league last week after beating the Ravens. They almost let it get away late, but a non-call on Roddy White allowed them to win. The Rams lost another heartbreaker on the road, this time against San Francisco. They're a young team learning to win. They play much better football at home, and the Falcons tend to struggle a bit on the road. But I see the Falcons pulling this one off. They have too much talent offensively for the young Rams defense to stop.

Atlanta 34  St. Louis 23

Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints

The Seahawks have sole possesion of first place in the NFC West after their win in Arizona last week. That doesn't mean anything yet. They need to play better football on the road, and they need better performances out of their offense no matter where they play. The Saints are coming off their bye, and will more than likely get an added spark to their offense back with RB Reggie Bush returning. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll knows how dangerous Bush can be considering he coached him at USC. The Saints look like they have returned to form after their early season struggles. I like the Saints here.

New Orleans 24  Seattle 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers

I'm sure many people thought the records of these two teams would be switched when they faced each other. But instead, the 49ers struggled early, and the Bucs are beating teams that are worse than them. The 49ers are a completely different team with Troy Smith at QB. He's more of a playmaker and can use his scrambling ability to make plays and find open receivers. Tampa Bay is doing the same thing with Josh Freeman. But I like the 49ers here. They've won 2 in a row and are right back in contention in the NFC West. The 49ers win, and the Bucs stumble in the NFC Wild Card race.

San Francisco 26  Tampa Bay 17

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots

It's pretty much been an annual tradition for the past five years. Mannnig vs Brady. It's always a good one when these two teams get together. The Patriots took care of the Steelers last week, and the Colts held on against the Bengals. The Colts have injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but the Patriots also have a young defense that I'm sure Manning will find holes in. The Patriots looked to find their rhythm offensively last week. They were playing the underneath game and not going deep. I expect this one to be close throughout. I almost can't go against the Patriots, but I also can't go against Peyton Manning in a late November game. But no ties here, Manning drives for a late field goal to win it.

Indianapolis 24  New England 21

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

I think Michael Vick just scored another touchdown. The Eagles rolled Monday night against Washington. The Giants were the complete opposite. They were dominated by the Cowboys in New York. The winner of this game gets sole possesion of first place in the NFC East. The Giants can be prone to late season slumps, and they need to do everything they can to avoid slipping again. Luckily for them it's a down year in the NFC. But the Eagles are just playing too good football right now. Mike Vick is doing everything right with the second chance he's been given. I like the Eagles here.

Philadelphia 31  NY Giants 23

Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers

The loser of this game will lose some major ground in the AFC West race. Especially the Chargers. If they lose they fall to 0-3 in the division. But the Chargers have been playing some good football the last couple of games. Phillip Rivers is playing some of the best football of his career. He's almost unstoppable. The Broncos got their groove back last week at home against the Chiefs. They showed signs of the high-powered offense they were earlier in the season. But even after the bye week, I don't see Phillip Rivers slowing down. I like the Chargers to stay hot here at home.

San Diego 35  Denver 23

That's all for this week, I'll be too busy at work this weekend for anything else. (DAMN YOU HARRY POTTER!!!) Monday I'll have my Survivor Series review, NFL review Tuesday, and more than likely NFL picks on Wednesday. I planned on writing a wrestling blog but forgot Thanksgiving was next week. I'll defintiely do one in two weeks.

Until next time,
Justin C

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