NFL Wild Card Round Preview

I apologize for not posting any weekly NFL Previews the last three weeks. I had a lot going on with working two jobs and have barely had any time to myself. I even took a break from writing about RAW the last two weeks. It didn't help that those two RAWs were on Holiday Eves, but I just needed a break to recharge. But I am now back and am starting a new year.

The NFL Playoffs start this week with the Wild Card Round. I never posted any official Playoff Predictions to start the season, but I can say that I correctly picked 4 out of the 6 AFC teams (Missed Cincinnati and Indianapolis, picked Buffalo and Tennessee instead). I correctly picked 3 out of 6 NFC teams (Missed Minnesota, Washington and Seattle, picked Detroit, NY Giants and Chicago instead). A little better than 50% so not great. There are a couple of hot teams heading into the post-season and also a couple sliding teams. Without wasting time, lets get into the Preview. Each Preview will be accompanied by 3 bullet points then a prediction at the end.

Justin's Take: Stars, Goats & Notes From Week 16 of the NFL

Game of the Week: New Orleans 34  Dallas 31  (OT)
-There weren't that many close affairs this week in the NFL. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh was low scoring and ugly at times. This one had some offense involved and late game heroics from Tony Romo and the Cowboys. But in the end, the Saints were able to pull this one out and put a temporary halt to the Cowboys post-season plans. Drew Brees tore the Cowboys secondary apart, going for 446 yards and 3 TDs. But just when it looked like the game was over, Dallas came back and scored 2 TDs with under 4 minutes to play. Dallas couldn't ride the momentum into overtime, however. It was the most entertaining game from a slate of not so great games.

NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC North Edition

We are less than two months away from the start of the NFL season. Less than a month away from the start of training camp. The NFL season is slowly creeping up on us. Its my favorite sport, and now that I no longer have any type of schooling to go to, its my favorite time of year as well. Summer is fun, but fall means football, and you can't top that.

Much like I did with my off-season previews, I will break down each of my Season Previews into eight parts, looking at each division individually. I'm going to try and churn one of these out every week leading up to the start of the season. There shouldn't be any major roster moves between now and the start of the season. There will be the typical injury or two during the pre-season, but everything is set enough now that I feel confident starting these previews.

NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC North Edition

These are coming at a quicker pace with Free Agency coming soon. Today we look at the AFC North, which might have been the best division in all of football last year. They put three teams in the Playoffs last year. The Ravens and Steelers have been a model of consistency in recent years. They also have the best rivalry in all of football. Every time these two teams get together, you can expect a hard-hitting, smash mouth game of football. Both teams are getting up there in age, however, and may be on a slight decline. I still think both are Playoff teams, but they may not be as infallible as they once worth. The Bengals shocked everyone last year by finishing 10-6 and securing a Wild Card berth. They will only get better. And then there is the Cleveland Browns. Unless they trade up for Robert Griffin, they will be basement dwellers without a doubt. Hell, they probably will still be basement dwellers even with Griffin.

NFL Wild Card Round Preview

No Week 17 Review. Since I'm doing Playoff Previews as well as an off-season preview, I really don't find it necessary. Instead I'm going right into my Playoff Previews. Here are my records to end the year.

Head-to-Head Record: 165-91
Spread Record: 38-29-1

Almost every team in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs is heading into it with a big question mark attached to it. Two teams, Denver and Cincinnati, backed their way into the Playoffs and have pretty much no momentum going in. The Texans, a team I thought could get to the Super Bowl, sure haven't looked like that kind of team in the last month of the season. The NFC doesn't seem as wide open as the AFC, with the Saints and Packers looking like the heavy favorites. But lets not get ahead of ourselves, here we are only going to focus on the Wild Card round of the Playoffs. Lets go!

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans: Saturday 4:30 P.M. on NBC
As I just said above, neither of these teams are going into the Playoffs with a lot of momentum. The Bengals got into the Playoffs thanks to losses by Oakland and Denver. The Texans have lost three in a row and almost had to rely on Jake Delhomme in the Playoffs after T.J. Yates left last week's game. For the Texans, it is their first Playoff appearance in franchise history. They took advantage of a down year for the AFC South. The Jaguars were horrible, the Colts didn't have Peyton Manning, and it took the Titans half a season to finally get everything together. Had the Titans played better all year they probably would have won the division. The Bengals exceeded everyone's expectations this year by even getting to the Playoffs. I thought they were a Bottom 5 team this year. But Coach Marvin Lewis got rid of the distractions, mainly Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, and righted the ship to get his team here. Even if the Bengals didn't get to the Playoffs, 9-7 was still an accomplishment for them. These two team met in Week 14, with the Texans winning on a late TD to win 20-19. That was their last win. Lets look at 3 storylines headed into this game.

Can the Texans Go Far With T.J. Yates?
The Texans had high hopes going into the year, and rightfully so. With Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson leading the offense, many thought the Texans were Playoff bound for the first time ever. They still got there, but they took a different path. After Schaub got hurt in Week 10, Matt Leinart took over. Then Leinart got hurt and T.J. Yates took over. Yates struggled in the last month of the season to get any kind of offense going. Of course, Yates didn't have his star WR Andre Johnson at his disposal. But that is not an excuse for Yates poor play. Now Yates faces the high pressure of the Playoffs, and he is coming off taking a big hit last week against Tennessee. In his 5 regular season starts, Yates has only thrown 3 TDs to go along with 3 interceptions. Yates will need to step up his play in the Playoffs if the Texans have any hopes of advancing.

How Will the Bengals Rookies Handle Playoff Pressure?
If it wasn't for Cam Newton's all world year, Andy Dalton would be under consideration for Rookie of the Year. Dalton isn't putting up flashy stats, but he has been a great game manager for the Bengals. He doesn't wow you with his flashy skills, but he doesn't make mistakes that cost his team games. He also has WR A.J. Green to help him. Green is a big play threat that can change the game with one long catch. But we all know the Playoffs are a different type of season. While the Bengals finished 9-7, they only beat one team with a winning record, the Titans. They also lost to every AFC Playoff team besides the Patriots, who they didn't play. While the Texans have struggled recently, they are still a good all around team. The Bengals rookies have done well during the regular season, but can they keep it up in the post-season?

Which Defense Comes Out On Top?
I expect this game to be a bit on the low scoring side because both of these teams have solid defensive units. The Texans finished the year second in total defense, the Bengals finished seventh. Both teams are solid against the run, and each team finished in the Top 10 in the league in sacks. The Texans lagged a bit when Wade Phillips left the team, but they should have everything together now. The Bengals pass defense, however, has struggled since losing CB Leon Hall to injury earlier in the year. The Bengals will probably have to double cover Andre Johnson if they really want to shut him down.

PREDICTION
I expect this game to be very similar to these two's Week 14 meeting. A close, low scoring game throughout that will be decided in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. You know that the Texans will be motivated by their home crowd who will be pumped for their first Playoff appearance. If the Texans can get to Andy Dalton, I think they have a great shot at winning. The Bengals, meanwhile, will need to focus on shutting down Arian Foster and Ben Tate and make T.J. Yates beat them. Both teams struggled to end the season, but I think the Texans have more overall talent, and they win their first playoff game in franchise history. I think Andre Johnson is a big factor in this one and shows why, when healthy, he is a top WR in the NFL.

Houston 24  Cincinnati 19

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints: 8 P.M. on NBC
Well, the Lions have no one to blame for themselves for this match-up. All the Lions had to do was beat the Packers second stringers, but they couldn't even do that. In fact, they let back-up QB Matt Flynn thrown for 480 yards and 6 TDs, something that neither Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers ever did as a Packer. If the Lions defense couldn't stop Matt Flynn, how do they expect to stop Drew Brees? They couldn't stop Brees in their Week 13 match-up, which saw the Saints win 31-17. The Saints are rolling into the Playoffs. They have won eight in a row, and some would consider them a better all around team than the Packers. Drew Brees has been making his case for the MVP award. The Saints offense looks unstoppable, and I don't know if anyone can stop them. Questions Time!

Can Anyone Stop Drew Brees?
I kind of answered this in my game preview. The Lions couldn't stop Matt Flynn, what makes them think they can stop Brees? In their Week 13 meeting, Brees threw for 342 yards and 3 TDs. The Lions are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense, which is not a good sign for them. The Lions will need to pressure Brees if they want to stop him, but Brees is so good at getting the ball out quickly that even that makes it hard to stop him. And you can't sit back in coverage and give him time to find his secondary targets. Its tough stopping Brees, and I don't know if the Lions can do it.

Don't Forget That Lions Offense Though. But Can They Hang with the Saints?
While the Lions didn't play the best defense last week, the offense definitely showed up to play. Matthew Stafford threw for over 500 yards and the offense looked good again for the third week in a row. Stafford has been able to utilize all the weapons at his arsenal, similar to what Brees does in New Orleans. While Calvin Johnson is the star, he also gets taken out of the game at times due to double and even triple coverages. But Stafford uses his other options like Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew. He will need to use all of those guys to keep up with the Saints offense. Stafford threw for over 400 yards in their Week 13 match-up, but the team only scored 17 points. The Lions will need more than that to beat the Saints. They're capable of that on offense.

Can the Lions Avoid Dumb Penalties?
The Lions had a problem with penalties towards the end of the year. In their match-up with the Saints they had two 15 yard personal foul penalties. They have a tendency to lose their focus at times. If the Saints offense is having their way with the Lions defense, can they keep their composure long enough to stay in the game? Or will the Lions take dumb penalties and cause the game to get out of reach? You never know when Ndamukong Suh could snap again. The Lions can't let a couple early Saints touchdowns get them down and do stupid things.

PREDICTION
Unlike the Bengals/Texans game, I think this will be a very high scoring affair. The Saints defense is good, but they don't get to the QB often and don't force a lot of turnovers. The Lions can match the Saints with scores for a short time, but eventually they will need their defense to step up and stop Drew Brees. If the Lions front seven has the game of their life and pressures Brees, then the Lions might have a shot. But the Lions best defense might be their offense. If the Lions offense can keep the Saints offense off the field through good clock management, then the Lions will have a shot. But I don't think that will happen. The Saints are just playing so well right now that the Lions can't stop them. The Lions made the Playoffs like their as many expected, but they are a few pieces away on defense from being a Title contender. Saints win.

New Orleans 45  Detroit 34

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants: 1 P.M. on FOX
This is probably the toughest game of the weekend to predict. Both teams are evenly matched. The Giants won their "win and your in" game against the Cowboys Sunday night that got them here. The Giants have been inconsistent all year, but they have played well the last two weeks. The Falcons clobbered the Bucs in their finale and are probably sending the Packers Thank You baskets for beating the Lions. You know the Falcons didn't want to see the Saints again, two weeks after being clobbered by them. Both of these teams are very similar on offense which should lead to a great match-up. Neither team out matches the other greatly, so expect a close match up throughout. Question time? You bet!

Which Giants Team Shows Up?
As I said, the Giants have been a very up and down team this year. The Giants have beaten the Patriots on the road, a decent Jets team, and almost upset the Packers. But the Giants also lost to the Seahawks at home early in the season, and were swept by the Redskins. The Giants offense is usually never the problem, but the defense has had flashes of inconsistency all year. Injuries have been a big part of that, but the Giants are finally almost fully healthy heading into the Playoffs and that will be a big help, especially with the pass rush. But the Giants have looked impressive in their last two games, both wins against good teams. If that Giants team shows up Sunday, they will be tough to beat.

Can the Falcons Offense Keep Clicking?
Outside of their loss to New Orleans, the Falcons offense has been rolling in recent weeks. They totaled 31, 41, and 45 points. Now yes, those games were against Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay, but those are very impressive numbers on offense. With Julio Jones fully healthy, the Falcons have a very potent offense attack. Matt Ryan has lead the Falcons to their third straight Playoff appearance. He has one of the better receiving corps in the league with Roddy White and Julio Jones at WR, and Tony Gonzalez is possibly the best TE to ever play the game. He's also never won a Playoff game, and with his career running out of time, you know he is graving that first playoff win. Oh, and the Falcons also have Michael Turner at running back. You can't focus on one aspect of the Falcons offense because they are one of the most balanced offenses in the league.

Will No Dome Affect the Falcons?
I know lots of people don't like to say weather is a factor for teams that play in domes, but I think it could be here. Not only do the Falcons play in a dome, but they also played New Orleans twice, at Minnesota, and at Indianapolis. That's 12 games indoors. Two of their other games were against Carolina and Tampa Bay, very warm weather cities. The weather won't be bad in New York on Sunday, but it will be colder than normal. Being outdoors can change a team's gameplan and affect their play, but only if they let it happen.

PREDICTION
As I said, this is the toughest game of the weekend to predict. Both of these teams are evenly matched, especially on offense. I think I have to give the edge to the Falcons on offense. Their WRs are more explosive and Michael Turner is a better running back than Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Tony Gonzalez could be a huge factor in this game. The Giants don't have the greatest linebackers so they may have to bring a safety down to cover Gonzo. But that would leave one-on-one match-ups for Roddy White and Julio Jones. The key for the Giants will be their pass rush. If they can get to Matt Ryan then they will win this game. But with Osi Umienyora plagued by injury, it takes away a threat if he plays. This one is an honest coin flip for me. As much as I love the Falcons offense, they still haven't won a Playoff game with Matt Ryan. They lost last year as the #1 seed. The Giants have Playoff experience and know what to expect come Playoff time. I'm giving the Giants the edge here, but I'm not confident. But I would be saying the same thing if I was picking Atlanta. Giants win a nail biter.

NY Giants 28  Atlanta 27

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos: 4:30 P.M. on CBS
Remember that time when Tim Tebow was the darling of the NFL? Yeah, that seems like ancient history. The Broncos have lost three in a row and backed their way into the Playoffs thanks to a Raiders choke job at home against San Diego. Tebow has looked awful in his last two starts. You can't blame him for the loss to New England, it wasn't his fault the defense couldn't stop anything. The Broncos come into the Playoffs on a three game losing streak, but the Steelers come in banged up. Ben Roethlisberger is still nursing a high ankle sprain, and they just lost Rashard Mendenhall to a torn ACL. The Steelers have also struggled to score in recent weeks. What time is it? It's question time!!! (had to throw in a C.M. Punk reference)

Will TEBOWMANIA Meet Its Final Resting Place?
Broncos fans enjoyed the ride Tim Tebow gave him during his first seven starts, but you have to wonder if even they are starting to realize that he may not be the QB of the future in Denver. Tebow has looked horrible the last two weeks. Against a bad Buffalo defense in Week 16, Tebow threw 1 TD, ran for another, but also threw 3 interceptions and lost a fumble. Last week against Kansas City, he lead no TD drives and had 1 fumble and interception. Teams are finally catching on to Tebow. They're dropping everyone back in coverage, keeping their defensive lines in their running lanes, and making Tebow beat them with his arm. And trust me, I've seen Tebow throw in person, he's not going to beat you with his arm. The Steelers love to blitz the QB, but you have to wonder if they will just sit back in this game and let Tebow try to throw against them. I don't see how Tebow does that.

Can the Steelers Avoid Being One Dimensional?
In Week 17 the Steelers lost running back Rashard Mendenhall for the rest of the season to a torn ACL. Mendenhall wasn't a game changer, but he was clearly the best back on the Steelers roster. Now the Steelers will have to rely on Isaac Redman to carry the load for them, and he doesn't have a proven track record in the backfield. The Steelers have been a pass heavy team, and  you have to wonder if they might become a bit too pass heavy this week with Mendenhall out. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will stretch out the Broncos secondary, but if the Steelers can't run the ball then the Broncos will just drop their safeties back to prevent that. The Steelers will need to try and establish some sort of run game early on, because if they don't the Broncos can key on the pass and put pressure on Big Ben.

Will QB Pressure Be the Key to Victory?
I think this will be the key factor in determining the winner of this game. Each team has some of the best pass rushers in the NFL. The Broncos boast rookie Von Miller (11.5 sacks) and Elvis Dumervill (9.5). The Steelers bring James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, who each have nine sacks. If Miller and Dumervill can get to an immobile Ben Roethlisberger, then the Steelers offense might face some problems. Big Ben suffered a set back with his ankle injury last game, so it might be difficult for him to move around in the pocket. If the Steelers bring pressure, Tebow can escape the pocket and make some plays with his legs. That won't stop the Steelers from blitzing, but Tebow could burn them if they do it too much.

PREDICTION
This game has low scoring affair written all over it. And I mean really low scoring. The Broncos offense is having trouble doing anything of note. Their option style offense has been figured out. Tebow can't throw. Even with Ryan Clark out for Pittsburgh, it still doesn't mean Tebow can win this game in the air. The Steelers might not have much of a running game but they still have some threats at WR that can make a big play when needed. Big Ben is one tough son of a gun, and you know he will make a play or two that no other regular QB will make. He has the Playoff experience and doesn't have a problem winning on the road in January. The Steelers get a big TD pass from Mike Wallace, and that is the only TD of the game.

Pittsburgh 16  Denver 6

There's my Wild Card Preview. For those wondering, I'm still sticking with my pre-season Super Bowl prediction of the Ravens over the Packers in the Super Bowl. Divisional Round Preview same time next week.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 17 Picks

Last week of regular season picks. I will do a preview for each round of the Playoffs as well, then more than likely an off-season preview in March and April, along with a Draft preview as well.

Last Week's Record: 10-6
Year to Date Record: 153-87

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
This is a match-up of two offenses that are fun to watch for different reasons. For Carolina, they have the always entertaining Cam Newton for them at QB. Newton's big arm and play making abilities on the ground make him a duel threat under center. Along with Johnathan Stewart and DeAngleo Williams, the Panthers have one of the best running attacks in the league. The Panthers are going to be a popular playoff pick next year, and this match-up could be a bigger game next year for both teams. The Panthers need to get healthy on defense and if they do that, watch out. The Saints offense is fun to watch because they have Drew Brees at QB. Brees has one of the best football minds in the game. He finds his open WR every play. It doesn't matter if it is his first option or fourth option, Brees finds him. Brees just broke Dan Marino's single season passing record, so he doesn't have that to play for this game. But the Saints are still fighting for a 1st round bye, but that seems unlikely with the 49ers easy match-up. But the Saints will play hard here. The Panthers almost knocked off the Saints earlier in the season, but a late Saints TD drive stopped that. I think the Saints pull out a close one here. Brees will pick apart a weak Panthers secondary.

New Orleans 35  Carolina 24

NFL Week 10 Picks

All 32 teams are playing this week. Plus we have our first Thursday night game of the year. Another solid set of games as well. Lets get to it.

Last Week's Record: 8-6
Year to Date Record: 84-46

Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers
Two teams on big slides here. Ever since the Raiders lost Jason Campbell they've been on a slide. The Raiders have lost two games in a row since losing him, both to AFC West opponents. The Raiders swept the AFC West last year but haven't won a single game in it this year. And now, people are starting to question if the power Hue Jackson has received since the passing of former owner Al Davis has gone to his head. Jackson pretty much benched WR Darieus Heyward-Bay and TE Kevin Boss last week. Jackson said the offensive packages but in place for the game didn't fit their strengths. Yeah sure. Plus Carson Palmer didn't look to great in his debut. The Chargers have lost 3 games in a row and there appears to be something getting to Philip Rivers. He's having one of the worst years of his career and it's affecting the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers actually had a chance to beat the Packers last week if it wasn't for Rivers two pick-6's. Both of these teams need this game. I think the loss of Darren McFadden for another week hurts the Raiders more than they think, and there is too much questioning of Hue Jackson going on. Chargers win a close one.

San Diego 26  Oakland 24

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles
This was suppose to be Kevin Kolb's big return to Philadelphia. But Kolb is unlikely to play due to a foot injury. The Cardinals won their first game since Week 1 last week against St. Louis thanks to an amazing Patrick Peterson 99 yard punt return for a touchdown in overtime. But the Cardinals still looked bad offensively with John Skeleton at QB. Philadelphia was upset by the Chicago Bears at home on Monday night football. That loss put the Eagles at 3-5 and all but shut the door on their playoff chances. It's going to take at least 10 wins to get into the playoffs in the NFC, and I don't know if this Eagles team can win 7 of their last 8. They have all the talent in the world but can't seem to mesh together as a team. But they start a potential comeback with a win here. Mike Vick should tear a poor Cardinals secondary to shreds and the Eagles defense will double Larry Fitzgerald and pressure John Skeleton all day long.

Philadelphia 31  Arizona 13

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers
Tennessee just can't seem to put everything together for an extended period of time. They beat Baltimore at home in Week 2, but they haven't beaten any other team that is better than them this year. They are the classic definition of a mediocre team. They beat the bad teams but can't beat the good teams. And of course, Chris Johnson is playing terrible. Johnson had his first decent game last week, getting over 100 yards from scrimmage in defeat. It's sad that that is considered good now for Johnson. The guy used to run for over 100 yards a game on a regular basis. The Titans pass defense got beaten badly by Andy Dalton last week, giving up 3 touchdowns to 3 different WRs. That's bad news heading into this week's match-up with the Carolina Panthers. Cam Newton spreads the ball around a lot. Plus he runs the ball a lot. Newton should be able to find open WRs all day. The Panthers are my pick for "Late Season Spoilers" in the NFL. They could be the team that squashes playoff hopefuls chances in the second half. Their offense is legit and their defense can hang with offenses. It won't shut teams down but it can limit them. The Panthers win here with Cam Newton running wild on the Titans defense.

Carolina 34  Tennessee 27

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Texans seem to be coming together. After losing two in a row, they've reeled off 3 straight wins. The offense is still going even without star WR Andre Johnson. And that's because of their new two-headed monster at RB in Adrian Foster and Ben Tate. It's a smart move by Texans Coach Gary Kubiak. Foster has been a bit injury prone in his short career, and having Tate help share the work load will keep Foster healthy and limit his touches heading into the playoffs. And trust me, the Texans will make the playoffs. There is no one else in the division that is better than them. The defense is a bit shaky and it may hurt them come playoff time, but no one can compete with the Texans in the AFC South. The Buccaneers have struggled a bit this year after high expectations coming into the season. The young Tampa team is 4-4 and not playing as well as they did last year during their 10-6 season. Josh Freeman isn't playing as well, and Mike Williams has hit a wall. The defense took a big hit losing DT Gerald McCoy for the year. They signed Albert Haynesworth, but you have to question if he has anything left after being cut by New England. I don't think Tampa has the same magic that they had last year. Houston wins here because of their offense.

Houston 27  Tampa Bay 21

Washington Redskins vs Miami Dolphins
It seems that these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Dolphins have played hard the last few weeks and it finally paid off with a big win against Kansas City last week. They shut down a red hot Chiefs team. Reggie Bush has looked really good, and Matt Moore looked competent under center last week. Plus the defense came alive and pressured Matt Cassel into bad decisions. The Redskins, meanwhile, have looked terrible offensively since handing the reigns to Jon Beck. They've scored a combined 44 points in the last 4 weeks, including getting shut out by Buffalo. The only bright spot has been youngster Roy Helu who played well last week against San Francisco. You have to wonder if the Redskins will even win another game this year because they are so bad on offense. You know both of these teams want Andrew Luck, especially Mike Shanahan. Maybe they will just take knees and intentional safeties all game? Who knows. But the Dolphins are playing the better football of the two, and they win their second in a row here.

Miami 20  Washington 12

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
If the Colts have a chance to win a game this year, this game is it. The Colts have looked downright dreadful the last 3 weeks. Before the New Orleans blowout games were at least being kept close. Now it doesn't even look like the Colts care anymore. But if they have any pride, they should be able to compete here. Jacksonville's defense has improved in recent weeks so the Colts might have some difficulty moving the ball. While Jacksonville's defense has improved, their offense is still stuck in neutral. Blaine Gabbert still hasn't improved too much since becoming the starting QB. The offense still hasn't scored more than 20 points with Gabbert under center. Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to run free here against a shabby Colts defense. While many think the Colts have packed it in, I like their chances to win here before the bye week.

Indianapolis 21  Jacksonville 19

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Don't look now, but Tim Tebow has the Broncos one game out of first place in the AFC West. Tebow again didn't have great stats or look good against Oakland, but he did enough to get the job done against the Raiders. Now Tebow faces another road test against the Kansas City Chiefs, who were just picked apart by Matt Moore and the Dolphins. The good news for Tim Tebow is that Willis McGahee looked really good in his return from his hand injury, running for 163 yards and two scores. The defense also picked off Carson Palmer three times, an improvement after getting torn up by Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions a week earlier. The Chiefs were embarrassed at home by Miami after a big win the week before on Monday night against San Diego. The Chiefs were lucky to win that game, and they couldn't carry the momentum over to the next week. Poor Todd Haley had to shave his beard off, and now he has to get this Chiefs team refocused for this big division showdown. The Chiefs have a BRUTAL five game schedule after this: at New England on Monday night, home to Pittsburgh on Sunday night (although this could be flexed), at Chicago, at NY Jets, home to Green Bay. They need this one bad, but they don't get it. The Broncos keep winning, and the media keeps praising Tim Tebow.

Denver 30  Kansas City 23

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys
The Bills received a big butt kicking last week at the hands of the NY Jets. They were out matched in every aspect of the game last week against the NY Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick made some bad throws, the offense couldn't get going, and the defense couldn't get off the field. The Bills are still a good football team, but these next two weeks will show just how far they have come this year. The Bills next three games are all on the road, where they have struggled this year and are only 1-2. But Ryan Fitzpatrick should find more openings against Dallas. The Cowboys don't have the same personnel the Jets do to stop the Bills offense. The Cowboys are coming off another one of those games where they beat a weaker team, this time Seattle, and face a good team the next week in the Bills. After the Cowboys beat the Rams easily, they were then demolished by the Eagles. After they beat the Redskins they blew a big lead late against Detroit. Tony Romo will be without Miles Austin for the next few weeks, but Romo should focus on handing the ball off to DeMarco Murray here and looking for Jason Witten, as the Bills have struggled to stop the run and tight ends in coverage. This one is close to the end, but I'm still not sold on the Cowboys. The Bills rebound after last week's ugly loss.

Buffalo 28  Dallas 27

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
This should be a good game. The winner takes the lead in the race to win the NFC South. The Saints have struggled a bit in recent weeks. Take away the Colts blowout, and all of their recent games have been close. They were beaten rather easily by the Rams, which is a bad thing. Tampa Bay kept last week's game close throughout and Tampa also beat the Bucs in Tampa a few weeks ago. Drew Brees still has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but he's been struggling a bit. The Falcons, meanwhile, have won three straight heading into this match-up. Rookie WR Julio Jones returned from injury last week and finally scored his first two touchdowns of his career in a breakout game for him. Jones give QB Matt Ryan another weapon to look for in his arsenal. The defense is also playing much better. I thought the Falcons were going to struggle after a poor start, but they rebounded nicely and seem to be back to last season's form. The Falcons are playing really good football, the Saints are not. Give me the Falcons here.

Atlanta 31  New Orleans 21

St. Louis Rams vs Cleveland Browns
The Rams looked brutal again last week against Arizona after lighting up the Saints the week before. Sam Bradford threw for a lot of yards, but couldn't get his team in the end zone. The Rams continue to disappoint this year after having high expectations. Injuries have been a major reason, as well as a brutal early schedule. Expect a heavy dose of Steven Jackson here, as the Browns have one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Browns are also disappointing on offense. The "Madden Curse" has taken down Peyton Hillis, and he's become a bigger distraction then he needs to be with his contract situation. Colt McCoy isn't playing well either. This could be an ugly game. I think the Rams have more talent, so I'm picking them to win.

St. Louis 17  Cleveland 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Well, time to find out what these Bengals are really made of. Their first division test against the main stays at the top of it. The Bengals just won't go away. They beat the Titans last week to improve to 6-2 overall and a tie for first atop the AFC North. Andy Dalton isn't playing like a rookie. If it wasn't for Cam Newton, he would be the Rookie of the Year in the NFL hands down. And the defense is playing great football as well. They haven't allowed more than 24 points all year in a game, which is outstanding considering some of the high scores we've seen in the league so far this year. The Steelers are coming off a disappointing home loss to Baltimore which saw them blow a lead with less than 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You have to think that this will motivate the Steelers a bit here. Ben Roethlisberger, no matter who he plays, has found his WRs with ease and that should continue here. There are just too many weapons at Pittsburgh's disposal for Cincinnati to stop, so I'm taking the Steelers here. The Bengals downfall begins.

Pittsburgh 27  Cincinnati 20

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks
Just when you think the Ravens are falling apart, they rebound and beat the Steelers for the second time this year. You have to now consider them the favorites in the AFC North, especially since they have the tiebreaker over the Steelers. Joe Flacco looked terrible for two weeks, then he lead a game winning drive to win the game against Pittsburgh. Ray Rice should still be the focal point of the offense, but if Flacco continues to improve the Ravens may become the favorites in the AFC again. Seattle has pretty much lost all of their home field advantage with their terrible play this year. They have no NFL QB on their roster. No WRs, and the defense can't stop the pass. This should be an easy one for Baltimore, even though they struggled against Jacksonville and Arizona. But the Ravens have turned a corner starting with last week's win.

Baltimore 38  Seattle 21

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers
The Giants started the rough stretch of their schedule exactly how they needed to, with a win at New England. Eli Manning lead another late comeback and the Giants continued to maintain a two game lead in the NFC East. The defense pressured Tom Brady and there's no reason to think they can't do the same against Alex Smith. The Giants also beat the Patriots without RB Ahmad Bradshaw and WR Hakeem Nicks. Both of those men may be out again this week, and they may actually hurt the Giants because the 49ers have a much better defense than the Patriots do. San Francisco has matched every challenge thrown at them this year, with their only loss coming in overtime to Dallas. The 49ers are for real, and not just a by-product of the terrible NFC West. Jim Harbaugh has lit a fire under these players and they seem to be taking to his coaching style. But Frank Gore has been limited in practice all week with an ankle injury. If he doesn't play because that hurts the 49ers, because then the Giants can focus even more on shutting down Alex Smith. I really like how the Giants have come together and think they pull off another big win on the road here.

NY Giants 24  San Francisco 20

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
Just when you think the Bears are done, they come back and win a big game in Philadelphia. The Bears are playing some good football in recent weeks. They've won 3 in a row since losing to Detroit in Detroit on Monday Night Football. The offensive line has done a better job of protecting Jay Cutler in recent weeks, and the team continues to rely on Matt Forte who leads all NFL players in yards from scrimmage. I didn't think the Bears would be good at all this year, but they are quickly proving me wrong. The Lions had a bye week to rest up and prepare for this big game. They dismantled the Broncos the week before their bye, which is something they needed after losing two straight home games. Matthew Stafford continues to rely on Calvin Johnson the most, but he has also spread the ball out more to some of his targets. The Lions defense, specifically their pass rush, is also improved. This game is a real toss up to me. The Bears are riding the momentum of their huge win in Philly, but the Lions have had two weeks to prepare for this one. I think the Lions are the better team, but the Bears win here because they have played the better football in the last month.

Chicago 23  Detroit 20

New England Patriots vs New York Jets
How the tides have turned since these teams last match-up. The Jets had lost two in a row while the Patriots were 3-1. Now, the Jets are on a three game winning streak and the Patriots have lost two in a row. This is not the same Patriots team we have seen in recent years. Sure, they still have Tom Brady and Bill Bellicheck, but the defense is nothing like it was during the Championship years. They can't stop anything in the secondary at all. The organization has missed on several of their defensive draft picks in recent years. Tom Brady can't do everything for this team. Lots of people know that the offense is now one dimensional. Defenses don't need to worry about stopping the run game because they don't have won. You can't win games in January with no running game. The Jets have rediscovered their run game in recent weeks and that has helped ease the pressure on Mark Sanchez. Sanchez has played better in recent weeks and so have his WRs, specifically Plaxico Burress. This has helped ease the pressure on their defense. The defense didn't have to worry about staying on the field long against the Bills as the offense was able to continue drives and not go with quick 3-and-outs. It's rare that the Patriots lose three games in a row, but I think it happens here. The Jets are the better team and the Patriots are struggling. Hell, they may MISS the playoffs.

NY Jets 31  New England 28

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
The Vikings have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Christian Ponder had one week last time and almost beat the Packers. Of course that was at home. This one is in Lambeau, on Monday night. Aaron Rodgers is throwing touchdown passes at will and is easily the favorite for MVP. Rodgers just has so many weapons at his disposal and defenses have a hard time focusing on just one to stop. Teams can beat Green Bay if they have a good secondary and pass rush, which is something the Vikings do not have. They also need to have an offense that can put up points in bunches, which is again something the Vikings don't have. Adrian Peterson will score a couple touchdowns, but this one is all Packers.

Green Bay 42  Minnesota 23

My Vegas $$$ Picks
Last Week's Record: 3-1
Year to Date Record: 22-13-1

Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas: Cowboys aren't that good, Bills aren't that bad.

Green Bay -13.5 vs Minnesota: Packers are two TDs better than Minnesota, especially at home.

Carolina -3.5 vs Tennessee: Titans offense can't hang with Panthers.

Indianapolis +3 vs Jacksonville: If the Colts don't win this week, then they might not at all.

That's it from me today.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka