Justin's Take: NFL Playoff and Off-Seaon Look Ahead

Hello Everyone. Instead of reviewing Week 17 like I would normally do here, I'm going to take a look ahead to the NFL Playoffs and Off-Season in this week's post. Not much to review about Week 17 without talking about both of those topics. Right now everyone is talking about the Playoffs and Coaching Moves, so why not talk about it here?

Ranking the Playoff Teams
12. Indianapolis Colts
-The Colts have been a great story all year. If you picked them to finish 11-5, then you are either a die hard Colts fan or have some psychic ability. They played well despite Coach Chuck Pagano leaving due to leukemia. Pagano is back, and you know the Colts will go all out for him. But the Colts defense scares me, especially their run defense. I think Ray Rice has a big game against them. Indy has been a good story but they are a long shot to win it all.

NFL Week 1 Review

Team of the Week: San Francisco 49ers
In the first week of the season, I like to look for teams that make a statement. And I think San Francisco made the biggest statement. They went into Lambeau on opening day and handled the Green Bay Packers rather easily. The score makes the game seem closer than it actually was. The 49ers shut down the Packers offensive attack. They had constant pressure in Aaron Rodgers face all day and made the Packers run game non-existent. San Francisco was a botched punt return away from going to the Super Bowl last year, and they returned the majority of their starters on both side of the ball this year. The offense has more weapons. Randy Moss played well yesterday and Alex Smith continues to be a solid game manager. He won't put up spectacular stats but he is a solid starter who plays well with the talent around him. San Fran looks like the team to beat in the NFC.

Game of the Week: Minnesota 26  Jacksonville 23 (OT)
-Who would have thought that quite possibly the least intriguing game of the week would wind up being the best one? Minnesota took a five point lead in the 4th quarter before Blaine Gabbert of all QBs lead a 6 play, 76 yard TD drive in just under one minute to give Jacksonville a lead. Minnesota then went 32 yards in three plays and allowed Blair Walsh to tie the game on a 55 yard field goal. Then we saw the new OT rules come into effect but the Jags could not convert after Minnesota's field goal. It may be the most interesting game these two teams play all year.

The Jon Gruden "Let Me Tell You About These Guys" 3 Stars
3. Matt Ryan
Ryan needed to shake off a bad Playoff performance last year against the Giants, and he did just that against the Chiefs. Ryan threw for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns in Atlanta's win over Kansas City. The NFC South, in my opinion, is the Falcons division to lose. As the Saints showed yesterday, they may not be as good as people think. And Carolina stumbled out of the gate against Tampa Bay. Ryan has plenty of weapons surrounding him so there is no excuse for bad play. The Falcons face a big test next week with the Denver Broncos coming to town.

2. Adrian Peterson
AP tore his ACL in Week 17 last year. Nine months later, Peterson was back on the field and looked pretty much like his normal self in the Vikings overtime win over Jacksonville. Peterson ran the ball 17 times for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns. To come back from an ACL tear and perform as well as Peterson did was quite admirable. The Vikings offense will go as far as Peterson will take them this year.

1. Robert Griffin
For anyone who would listen to me, I have been telling them constantly that I think Robert Griffin will be a very good QB this year and in the future. I think he is a better version of Mike Vick. His arm strength and mobility are very good. But I did not expect to see the performance I saw from Griffin against the Saints. The kid just kept making play after play. He easily outplayed Drew Brees. When the Saints cut the lead to 8, Griffin lead the Redskins down field in 3 minutes to give the Redskins the double digit lead again. The Redskins will cause some problems in the NFC East this year.

The Matt Millen "What Were They Thinking" Goats of the Week

3. Mario Williams
Williams was brought in to be a pass rushing force for the Bills this year. What was his stat line against the Jets? One tackle. Williams could not get anything going all game against a vastly inferior opposition from the Jets offensive line. And after the game? Williams complained about being held and getting hands to the face all game. Mario, I love you for choosing the Bills. But you are paid to beat the opposition. Not complain when you can't.

2. Titus Young
The Lions were expecting a breakout season from Young. But instead of having a big first game, what does Young do? He goes and gives a headbutt to Rams CB Janoris Jenkins. Not only that, but he did it right in front of his own head coach Jim Schwartz. Schwartz benched Young for the rest of the game and you have to wonder if this will affect Young's playing time going forward. The Lions have had multiple mental lapses during the off-season and it wasn't a good way to start for Young and the Lions. The Lions won but they should have easily beaten the Rams.

1. Cleveland Browns Offense
The Browns defense did everything they possibly could to keep the team in the game. They picked off Mike Vick 4 times and even helped the offense out by returning one for the touchdown. Brandon Weeden looked like a rookie QB nowhere near ready to start a game. What was Brandon Weeden's final stat line? 12-35, 118 yards, no touchdowns and 4 interceptions. That gave him a QB rating of 5.1. Cleveland only mustered 210 yards of total offense. Their longest drive was 6 plays for 53 yards that ended with an interception. It is going to be a very long season for Cleveland fans.

Other Week 1 Notes
-I've gone this far without mentioning Peyton Manning. Well, he looks just like he did two years ago. It seriously looked like he didn't miss a beat. Manning made quick decisions with the ball and looked like his old self calling audibles at the line of scrimmage. I specifically liked how he called two audibles near the goal line when it looked like Troy Polamalu was blitzing. He called a timeout after still not seeing what he liked. Then they converted on the next play. If the Broncos defense could have gotten off the field on third down, they would have won the game by a wider margin. But the Broncos showed last night that they will be the team to beat in the AFC West.

-Yes it is only Week 1, but it looks like the toughest division to call will be the NFC East. The Eagles looked terrible against a weak Browns team. The Cowboys went into New York and defeated the Giants. And the Redskins went into New Orleans and beat the high powered Saints offense. These teams are going to beat up on each other this year. It would not surprise me if the winner of the division ended up 9-7. I still like the Giants. They've shown their ability to pull out tough games late in the season and Eli Manning knows how to win big games late. The Redskins will pull off a couple upsets along the way. The Eagles and Cowboys will play really good one week then terrible the next like they have in the past. I don't see any team pulling away with this division.

-It is only Week 1, and we are starting to get people asking whether or not Joe Flacco is elite again. Yes, Flacco had a good game against a good defense in Cincinnati. But everybody has surprisingly good games. Flacco has still not won his team a Super Bowl like Eli Manning has. To be, Flacco is a solid starting QB who will have good games like he did this Monday and bad games like I'm sure he will throughout the season. I can name at least 10 QBs I would rather have besides Flacco, so I would in no way say that he is an elite QB.

The Booker T FAB FIVE
1. San Franciso 49ers
2. New England Patriots
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Houston Texans
5. Chicago Bears

The King Booker Peasant 5
28. Buffalo Bills
29. Seattle Seahawks
30. Indianapolis Colts
31. Miami Dolphins
32. Cleveland Browns

3 Games I'd Like To See Next Week
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers: Packers have a legit shot of starting 0-2
Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers: The Handshake Part 2
Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons: Lets see how Peyton performs on the road

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 1 Picks

Yes, its back. The NFL Season is finally here and with that it is the return of my picks! Nothing changes from last year. I will post my picks here with some analysis. I know I missed Thursdays game. I will try to tweet my pick for that game before hand so I have proof of it. Good thing I didn't do that this week. Hopefully I can get some of these games right.

Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears
Tough way for Andrew Luck to break into the league. Luck had a decent pre-season, but he is walking into a very tough match-up against the Chicago Bears and their defense. Luck can expect to face some heavy pressure from Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher. It will be tough for the Colts offense to get anything going either on the pass or on the ground. Jay Cutler, meanwhile, finally gets the #1 WR he has been so desperately missing since he has come to Chicago. Cutler and Brandon Marshall were very good together in Denver and Chicago is expecting the same thing from them. The Bears also have a great one-two punch in the backfield with Matt Forte and Michael Bush. The Bears can't afford any slip ups if they want to compete for the NFC North Title, and I think they win this one rather easily.

Chicago 31  Indianapolis 13

NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC North Edition

We are less than two months away from the start of the NFL season. Less than a month away from the start of training camp. The NFL season is slowly creeping up on us. Its my favorite sport, and now that I no longer have any type of schooling to go to, its my favorite time of year as well. Summer is fun, but fall means football, and you can't top that.

Much like I did with my off-season previews, I will break down each of my Season Previews into eight parts, looking at each division individually. I'm going to try and churn one of these out every week leading up to the start of the season. There shouldn't be any major roster moves between now and the start of the season. There will be the typical injury or two during the pre-season, but everything is set enough now that I feel confident starting these previews.

2012 NFL Mock Draft

The NFL Draft is now less than two weeks away, so I think its only appropriate to finally do a mock draft. There are people that have been doing these since the end of the season, but to me that is way too early. Constantly updating one and changing it can be a hassle. I think doing a mock draft within a week or two of the actual Draft is just the right time to do it.

NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC West Edition

With the NFL Scouting Combine under way and free agency getting close, NFL talk is heating up again. That brings us to Part 3 of our NFL Off-Season Preview. It is time to look at the AFC Tebow. Oh I'm sorry, I mean the AFC West. This division was a big pile of meh last year. The Broncos backed into the division title with an 8-8 record. Two teams fired their head coach while the Chargers retained Norv Turner to the dismay of their fan base. With the emergence of the 49ers in the NFC West, one could argue that this may be the worst division in the NFL. I think the AFC South may be a little worse, but if we are going to argue about that, why would you even continue reading? So lets get to the Preview!

Denver Broncos

2011 Record: 8-8

The Denver Broncos were the talk of the NFL last year. No, it wasn't because of their team play. It was because of one man: Tim Tebow. Tebowmania took over the NFL last year to the point where it became almost impossible to watch any kind of ESPN or NFL Network show without getting sick of hearing Tebow's name. Tebow isn't the traditional type of QB the NFL is used to, but he always found ways to get the Broncos a win. Tebow lead the Steelers to an upset victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Playoff Round before being dismantled by the Patriots the next week. The Broncos need to get some pieces on offense to help Tebow. Their defense was decent all year with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervill getting to the QB on a regular basis, but it was torched in both meetings by the Patriots and need to get better in some spots, especially the secondary.

Biggest Question: Can Tebowmania Continue in 2012?

When Tim Tebow took over the starting QB reigns in Week 7 for the Broncos, most people thought it was a prelude to the Broncos tanking and getting in line for Andrew Luck. But to pretty much everyone's surprise, Tebow continued to find ways to win and get the Broncos back in the Playoff hunt. Before losing their final three games of the season, the Broncos won seven out of eight with Tebow under center. His mechanics still need some work. He has a long throwing motion and his accuracy and arm strength are below average at best. Tebow is already working on that this off-season. John Elway says Tebow has earned the right to be the starter heading into training camp, but that the team also needs to bring in a QB or two to compete with Tebow. I still don't think Tebow is the long term answer for the Broncos at QB. When teams figure him out, like they started to at the end of last year, he can't work his magic. Despite Tebow's success, you'd have to figure he will be on a short leash to start the year. If teams get to Tebow early and shut him down, the Broncos offense becomes almost non-existent.

Top 3 Free Agents

1. Matt Prater: Kicker

Just like the Jaguars and Broncos, teams that don't get to the end zone often need to have a reliable kicker that can convert from deep. While Prater was only 19 of 25 this year, he was clutch from deep, going 3 for 4 including hitting a 59 yard field goal to tie the game against Chicago. Prater knows how to kick in the Mile High air and is a valuable asset to the Broncos.

2. Brodrick Bunkley: Defensive Tackle

Bunkley isn't great at getting to the QB, but he is a decent run stuffer up the middle and makes it tough for teams to run on the Broncos inside because of that.

3. Joe Mays: Linebacker

Mays is a decent inside linebacker and was third on the team in tackles. But Mays can't get to the QB either and could be replaced and the loss wouldn't be too noticeable.

Top 3 Needs

1. Cornerback

Champ Bailey is still getting the job done, but he isn't getting any younger. Andre Goodman struggled mightily last year. Both men were burned last year by the Patriots. The Broncos need an upgrade at this position and a healthy dose of young talent from the Draft may help.

2. Offensive Line

Tebow scrambled around a fair amount last year and was sacked 33 times in 11 starts. If Tebow wants to improve as a QB, he will need help from his offensive line. Tebow will need some better protection on his blind side.

3. Wide Receiver

As I said earlier, if Tebow is going to improve he is going to need some more weapons around him. While Demaryius Thomas stepped up last year, Tebow will need more than one WR to throw to and get open.

I really think the Broncos were just a flash in the pan team last year. No one saw Tebow coming, but now that team's can prepare for him they will have a better game plan going into games. The Broncos pass rush will still get to the QB, but they will need to improve their secondary. But this division is in flux right now with no real clear cut favorite in it. If the Broncos get Tebow some better weapons and he improves his mechanics than the Broncos could be right there in the division hunt next year. But I don't know if Tebow can repeat the success he had last year. I expect a slight drop off for the Broncos this year as the Broncos organization and fans start to question whether Tebow can be the QB of the future.

San Diego Chargers

2011 Record: 8-8

The Chargers season can pretty much be broken down into three seasons. Heading into the bye week they were 4-1. It looked like the Chargers were going to avoid their typical slow start under Norv Turner. After the bye week they lost six games in a row. Philip Rivers looked off and the defense had problems stopping people. The Chargers then closed the season out going 4-1 but just missed the Playoffs. Most people thought that it was finally the end of the line for Norv Turner, but they were wrong. Turner was retained because the Chargers felt they couldn't get an upgrade at the coaching position. The Chargers still have a lot of good pieces on their team but they also have some key free agents that may not return. That could change the complexion of the Chargers, but I still think they have the most talent in the division.

Biggest Question: Was the Chargers Mid-Season Collapse A Sign of Things to Come?

Despite finally coming alive in the final five games of the season, the Charges six game losing streak in the middle of the year has to be a bit concerning. Norv Turner has always been a question mark as a coach, making questionable decisions at certain times. You would have to think that Turner is on a short leash this year. If the Chargers get out to a slow start again, will Turner get the axe? A lot of the problems for the Chargers was their inability to stay healthy. Antonio Gates is constantly hurt. Ryan Matthews has yet to play a full season. The Chargers need to stay healthy for a full season. But even if they do, can they continue to play well with the possibility of losing two very good pieces on offense?

Top 3 Free Agents

1. Vincent Jackson: Wide Receiver

Jackson is a big downfield target and has breakaway speed too. The Chargers are unlikely to use the franchise tag on him and it is likely that he will leave via free agency. The Chargers will miss Jackson's breakaway speed and it could cause their offense to take a step back.

2. Nick Hardwick: Center

Hardwick is one of the best centers in the game and is the anchor of the team's offensive line. Hardwick is only 30 years old, but he already talked about contemplating retirement this off-season. It may be a sign that his heart isn't all into the game anymore.

3. Mike Tolbert: Running Back

Tolbert and Ryan Matthews made a great one-two punch in the backfield for San Diego. Tolbert was a great goal line back for San Diego, accounting for 8 touchdowns. Ryan Matthews has yet to stay healthy for a season, so losing a good back like Tolbert will be difficult for the Chargers to swallow.

Top 3 Needs

1. Linebacker

The Chargers struggled to get to the quarterback last year. Outside of Antwan Barnes, nobody on the team had more than four sacks. That caused the Chargers secondary to get burned repeatedly. The Chargers need to get to the QB if they don't want to get into shootouts all year.

2. Cornerback

Despite the poor pass rushing not helping things, the Chargers secondary still needs some improvements this off-season. Quentin Jammer is getting old and has lost a step in his game.

3. Offensive Line

With Nick Hardwick contemplating retirement as well as Guard Kris Dielman, the Chargers might have some holes to fill on the offensive line. LT Marcus McNeill also has problems staying healthy. Philip Rivers needs to be protected.

If the Chargers can't get some help in free agency, then they may struggle again this year. If they re-sign some key pieces on the offensive line and Mike Tolbert then this team may still be the best in the AFC West. But no matter what, the Chargers need to improve their defense if they want to be competitive this year. If they don't do that then they will constantly be in shootouts, and that will not work if they lose Jackson and Tolbert this off-season.

Oakland Raiders

2011 Record: 8-8

The Raiders had a very tumultuous year last year. They lost their legendary owner Al Davis towards the start of the year. After that, the Raiders won at Houston and things looked to be heading up. But the team lost QB Jason Campbell and traded for Carson Palmer. The Raiders looked on the verge of a potential Playoff birth, but they let that slip away by losing four of their last five games. Many people questioned Hue Jackson's decision making and his want for more of a role in the team's personnel decisions. That lead to Jackson's firing this off-season. Now the team has a new GM, Reggie McKenzie, and a new coach, former Broncos defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. The team will have a new philosophy and will be switching to a 3-4 defensive look, but the Raiders have no Draft picks in the first two rounds this year and will struggle to get new talent because of it.

Biggest Question: Can the Raiders Get Through The Season With No Off-Field Distractions?

It almost seems like every year their is some kind of distraction that the Raiders have to deal with off the field. This past year the team had to deal with Hue Jackson getting a hot head and wanting more power in the team's decision making process. At the start of the 2009 season, the team had to deal with allegations that Tom Cable shoved a former coaching assistant and fractured his jaw. While Al Davis was one of the most legendary owners in the NFL, he always did something during the year that drew attention off the field. With a new GM and Coach, maybe the Raiders will finally be able to focus on the field this year with no distractions off it. There is a lot of talent on this team, especially on offense. The team can easily win the AFC West if they put everything together this year.

Top 3 Free Agents

1. Michael Bush: Running Back

Bush filled in very nicely this year for the injured Darren McFadden. Bush ran for just under a thousand yards and scored seven touchdowns. Bush will attract a lot of attention from teams in need of a number one running back. Bush would make a great one-two punch with McFadden and would give the Raiders a dynamic running attack, one that could run for 150 total yards every game.

2. Tyvon Branch: Safety

Branch is one of the better safeties in the NFL. He lead the Raiders with 109 tackles and is a good coverage safety. With the team already transitioning to a 3-4 defense, it can't let one of the stable parts of their defense leave. Losing Branch would create a big hole in the Raiders secondary.

3. Marcel Reece: Fullback

If the Raiders don't re-sign Michale Bush, they better re-sign Marcel Reece. Reece is one of the best fullbacks in the league. He can create holes for McFadden and Bush, and he can also catch passes out of the backfield if necessary. A good fullback can be a great asset to any offense.

Top 3 Needs

1. Nose Tackle

The Raiders don't have a true nose tackle on their team for a switch to a 3-4 defense to work. There are plenty of options available in the Draft and Free Agency.

2. Cornerback

The Raiders already let go Stanford Routt this off-season, and he signed with the Chiefs. Lito Sheppard is also a free agent, and Chris Johnson probably won't be back. The Raiders will need at least one, probably two cornerbacks if they want to have a good secondary this year.

3. Outside Linebacker

Kameron Wimbley can play one outside linebacker spot in the 3-4, but they don't have anyone to play opposite of him. Having two good outside linebackers is very important to the success in a 3-4 defense.

The Raiders have a lot of talent on this team, they just need to find someone to put all the pieces together. The offense has a lot of talent and potentially two good running backs and a good young core of wide receivers. The transition to the 3-4 defense will be key here. If the Raiders struggle with it, then it could be a long season full of shootouts. If they are good, then the Raiders could be the favorites to win the division. If the talent holes are filled on defense with adequate 3-4 personnel, then the Raiders may be the favorites to win the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs

2011 Record: 7-9

The Chiefs went through a string of bad luck last year. They lost Safety Eric Berry in the first game for the rest of the season. Then Jamaal Charles went down in the next game with a torn ACL. They then lost Matt Cassel for the year to a broken finger. Todd Haley was fired after the team's Week 14 loss to the Jets and was replaced by Romeo Crennel. In his first game on the job, Crennel lead the Chiefs to a 19-14 victory over the then undefeated Green Bay Packers. In the season finale, Crennel's team held Tim Tebow and the Broncos to only 3 points. The players like Crennel, and that was enough to keep Crennel on the job as head coach. The Chiefs were a division winner in 2010, and they still have some of the same pieces they had from that run. A healthy Chiefs team is full of a lot of talent, and can easily win a wide open AFC West.

Biggest Question: Is Matt Cassel Still the Answer In Kansas City?

Cassel came to Kansas City with a lot of hype after his showing in New England in 2008. He struggled in 2009, but came alive in 2010 with 27 TDs and only 7 interceptions. Last year Cassel struggled, only throwing 10 TDs and 9 interceptions in his nine starts. Cassel has yet to live up to the hype of his 2008 season with New England where he lead the team to an 11-5 record and just missing out on a Playoff berth. A lot of that had to do with what Josh McDaniels did with Cassel. The team brought in Kyle Orton last year after he went down. He played ok, but still couldn't get the team over the hump. The Chiefs may be interested in Peyton Manning. The Chiefs have a good running back in Jamaal Charles and a stud WR in Dwayne Bowe, if he re-signs there. Manning could be intrigued playing in Kansas City. The Chiefs did it once with Joe Montana, why not try it with Manning. If not, this may be Cassel's last chance to succeed as Chiefs quarterback this year.

Top 3 Free Agents

1. Dwayne Bowe: Wide Receiver

Bowe is a great wide receiver, and he would be even better with a just as good complimentary wide out. Could you imagine Manning, Charles, Bowe and Reggie Wane in one offense. Bowe has some work ethic issues at times, including his short hands he had in that missed catch against Pittsburgh. Someone will pay Bowe a lot of money to be there stud WR. He has great size and is a true #1 WR.

2. Brandon Carr: Cornerback

Carr is a very good cornerback. He has great ball-hawking skills and team's refuse to throw the ball his play when playing the Chiefs, which is why some of his stats are so low. He will get #1 CB money on the market. I think the Chiefs will only keep one of Bowe and Carr, not both.

3. Jovan Belcher: Linebacker

Belcher played quite well at the inside linebacker spot for the Chiefs next year. He's a good run stuffer and is still young and is only capable of improving even more. He's a good, young player that the Chiefs shouldn't lose.

Top 3 Needs

1. Offensive Line

Barry Richardson was not very good at right tackle last year. Also, Casey Wiegmann is 39 and is close to retiring this off-season. The Chiefs would like to land one of the top two tackles at the 11 pick, but they will probably be gone by then.

2. Nose Tackle

Kelly Gregg is 36 years old and declining in skills. Just like with the Raiders, there are plenty of options available at this position in free agency.

3. Running Back

While Jamaal Charles is expected to be healthy at the start of the season, running backs are often a bit different when they come back from a torn ACL. The Chiefs might try to Draft Trent Richardson or sign a high end back-up for Charles in free agency.

The Chiefs were very good in 2010, but injuries and bad play slowed them down in 2011. But if the team can return to healthy form in 2012, they may get right back to their division winning ways. The players like Romeo Crennel and you know they will play their hardest for him. If Matt Cassel improves his play, and the Chiefs keep Dwayne Bowe in the fold, they may be the best team in this division.

And there you have it. Next Preview will probably be out this weekend. It will be the NFC West.

Until Next Time,

Justin C

Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC South Edition

The NFL season may be over, but the off-season is just getting started!

Starting with this Preview, I will be doing previews of each division this off-season. Expect me to pump out one of these a week. Depending on time I may be able to do two. I love writing about the NFL and I didn't want to stop during the off-season.

Our first preview takes a look at the AFC South. The tide finally turned in the division last year, with the Texans winning their first division title while the Colts, who were mainstays at the top, finished with a 2-14 record and earned the 1st pick in this year's Draft. But of course, the biggest question surrounding the Colts is the future of Peyton Manning. Is Manning healthy? Will he still be a Colt at the start of the year? No one really knows. Then there are the Titans and Jaguars. The Titans improved towards the end of the year but just fell short of the Playoffs and now face a QB controversy heading into the season. The Jaguars, meanwhile, hired Mike Mularkey to be their new coach and try to fix QB Blaine Gabbert.

I will be doing a team by team preview, with each team's pending big free agents as well as their biggest needs and questions facing them.

Houston Texans

2011 Record: 10-6

Many people thought the Texans would make a big step toward the Playoffs last year, and they did. The Texans won their first Division Title and made the Playoffs for the first time in Franchise history. They did all of that without their star pass rusher Mario Williams. They also lost WR Andre Johnson for most of the season to a hamstring injury and lost QB Matt Schaub for the year with a foot injury. The Texans jumped out to enough of a lead in the AFC South to clinch the division with two weeks to go. They easily handled the Bengals in the Divisional Round and held their own against the Ravens. If Matt Schaub had been in that game, the Texans might have won. T.J. Yates performed adequately in relief of Schaub, but there is no doubt this is Schaub's team. The Texans may experience a slight drop off this coming season, but I would still peg them as the favorites in the AFC South for the time being.

Biggest Question: Will Cap Issues Cause A Big Departure?

The Texans have a lot of free agents and not enough cap room to re-sign all of them. That could lead to a few tricky situations for the Texans. RB Arian Foster is a restricted free agent and the Texans will undoubtedly franchise tag him and ask for the max back if another team signs him to an offer sheet. If another team signs Foster, they will have to surrender a 1st round draft pick. While Ben Tate filled in nicely when Foster went down, he isn't the type of back Foster is.

The bigger issue facing the Texans will be whether or not they can keep DE/OLB Mario Williams. Williams missed most of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Teams will be throwing a ton of money at Williams. And as he showed in his brief time this season, Williams can play OLB in a 3-4 scheme or could easily transition back to DE in a 4-3 scheme. If you ask me, Williams is the crown jewel of the free agent market. That includes if Peyton Manning becomes available. Williams is a game changing pass rusher that makes any defensive front intimidating.

The Texans would like to re-sign two of their interior lineman: Chris Myers and Mike Brisiel. They also have K Neil Rackers to re-sign. It may take a hometown discount to re-sign Williams. He would like to remain a Texan, but of course, that always means at the right price. I see Williams walking to whoever offers him the most money and he feels is close enough to a contender so he can win a Championship. I guess I just listed most of the Texans big free agents so I can skip that part.

Top Needs

1. Wide Receiver

Maybe the Texans finally realize that Andre Johnson is very injury prone. When he went down last year, the team had to rely on Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones to carry the load for the team. When your secondary options can be covered in single coverage, that allows defenses to step up and stop your running game. The Texans could address this in free agency or in the Draft.

2. Nose Tackle

While the Texans defense was strong last year, nose tackle was a weak link of the front seven. Shaun Cody did not provide much of a presence up front for the Texans, only providing 23 tackles and one sack. The Texans would be best to address this position in the Draft. There are plenty of options available in the end of the first round for them to choose from.

3. Interior Lineman

If the Texans are unable to re-sign Myers or Biesiel, then they will need to find replacements for them. The Texans don't have a lot of depth on the offensive line. Wade Smith is also a weak link at LT and the Texans could use an upgrade there.

I think the Texans are still the favorites to win the AFC South next year. If they can find a way to re-sign Mario Williams, then they may be my favorites to win the AFC. The offense is fun to watch and the defense played surprisingly well in their first season in the 3-4 look.

Tennessee Titans

2011 Record: 9-7

The Titans surprised most people with their play this past year. They needed one more win to make the Playoffs, and I'm sure they are kicking themselves for losing to Indianapolis in Week 15. Lots of the Titans early struggles had to do with the slow start of RB Chris Johnson. Johnson held out for most of training camp and was clearly not in game shape come the start of the season. The Titans relied on Matt Hasselbeck at QB for most of the year, but Jake Locker looked ready to be the man in Tennessee at the end of the year. He filled in quite well for Hasselbeck when he went down with an injury. The Titans defense is in need of some changes. They ranked 31st in sacks and 24th in interceptions. They need to address that in the Draft, because they will lose some key defensive pieces in free agency.

Biggest Question: Who Starts at QB Week 1?

Matt Hasselbeck will be 36 at the start of the season and has been injury prone the past few years. While he helped the Titans finish with the record they did, he is also declining in ability and is clearly not the future of the franchise. The Titans drafted Jake Locker in Round One last year. In three real game appearances, Locker threw for 4 touchdowns and looked solid in the pocket. Locker played quite well in relief of Hasselbeck against New Orleans. I'm sure training camp will be used to determine who will be the starter, but I'm pretty sure Jake Locker will be under center for the Titans in Week 1. Locker has more mobility and can make more plays than Hasselbeck will be able to.

Top 3 Free Agents

1. CB Cortland Finnegan

Finnegan is a very good CB but also has a temper and can be a boatload to handle at times. While he is valuable to the Titans, they may not want to deal with his behavioral problems on and off the field. Most people expect him to reunite with his old coach Jeff Fisher in St. Louis.

2. S Michael Griffin

While Griffin finally put together a solid season last year, he still struggled with consistency before this year and there is no guarantee he can repeat the success he had last year. Griffin will probably ask for money based on this year's performance, but the Titans will more than likely not want to give him that kind of money.

3. DT Jason Jones

Jones played well for Coach Jeff Fisher in his defensive scheme, but struggled last year under Mike Munchak's new one. Jones is a wide nine technique, so he would fit well in a place like Philadelphia. He is still young and can still turn into a starting caliber defensive end.

Top Needs

1. Defensive Line

If the Titans want to compete for the AFC South crown they will need to improve their pathetic pass rush. I don't know if they will be players for Mari Williams or Cliff Avril, but they will need an overhaul from somewhere. There are a boatload of pass rushers in this year's Draft and the Titans will try to grab one of them.

2. Cornerback

There will be a big drop off in the secondary if Finnegan leaves. They don't have another corner on their roster capable of replacing his play making ability. A weak secondary and pass rush is a bad combination.

3. Interior Lineman

Eugene Amano is not a very good center, and RG Jake Scott is aging and a free agent. If the team wants Chris Johnson to rebound from an off year, they will need to find interior lineman who can create holes for him. Improving the offensive line will also help Jake Locker under center.

If the Titans can improve their defense, they may be one of those fringe Wild Card candidates again this year. Getting Kenny Britt back will be huge for this team. He was having a monster year before his injury. Chris Johnson should return to the CJ2K of 2010 with a full off-season of preparation. The Titans season will depend on how Jake Locker. If he played like he did for those flashes in 2011, the Titans will be in good shape. How Locker handles the pressure of being a starting NFL QB will determine the Titans season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2011 Record: 5-11

The Jaguars fired Jack Del Rio just after the midway point of last season. They were looking for an offensive mind to replace him, and they got one with the hiring of Mike Mularkey. Mularkey was the offensive coordinator in Atlanta and had a previous head coaching gig in Buffalo. Being from Buffalo, I can tell you Mularkey got a pretty raw deal here. He got the Bills the closest they have been to the Playoffs in the last decade. Mularkey has a good offensive mind and is a good choice to help mold Blaine Gabbert into a decent NFL QB. The Jaguars are missing a lot of pieces and are not close to contending for a Playoff spot. They have one solid asset, and that is running back Maurice Jones-Drew. He is a workhorse in the backfield.

Biggest Question: Can Blaine Gabbert Turn Into An NFL QB?

The Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert to be their franchise QB. They dumped David Garrard before the start of the season and handed the keys over to Gabbert in Week 3. Gabbert never looked comfortable the whole season. Gabbert would look intimidated anytime he saw pressure coming at him. Often times he would thrown off his back foot when faced with a pass rush, something an NFL QB should not do on a regular basis. The problem was that the Jaguars had no one else to turn to. Luke McCown wasn't the answer. He's a free agent this off-season and won't be back. Look for Jacksonville to sign a veteran back-up that will help mentor Gabbert. Mike Mularkey has the task of turning Gabbert around. The first thing he needs to do is get him some better weapons at WR. Gabbert also needs to improve his accuracy in the pocket. Any chance the Jags have this season rests on Gabbert's shoulders.

Top 3 Free Agents

1. Jeremy Mincey: Defensive End

Mincey surprised many people last year with a strong performance. He had eight sacks and 57 tackles, and even forced four fumbles. Mincey was the Jaguars best pass rusher and they need to re-sign him, otherwise they have another need to fill.

2. William Middleton: Cornerback

Middleton played rather well when he stepped in to fill in for the injury-riddled Jaguars secondary. At the age of 26, Middleton is still young and has a lot of potential.

3. Josh Scobee: Kicker

A kicker you say? Scobee was the Jaguars most reliable weapon for points last year. He went 23-for-25 last year and 5-for-6 from 50+ yards. If Gabbert continues to struggle, having a solid kicker will help the Jags put points on the board.

Top Needs

1. Wide Receiver

If Justin Blackmon somehow falls to the Jaguars at the 7th pick they will be sprinting to the podium. It is tough to get free agents to come to Jacksonville. They will more than likely look to add a WR in the 2nd Round and might try to get a veteran free agent or two if possible.

2. Cornerback

Even if the Jaguars re-sign Middleton, they also have Rasheed Mathis who is a free agent. Mathis is 32 and might not want to come back to a young and re-building Jags team.

3. Defensive End

There are a boatload of options for the Jaguars at the #7 pick in the Draft if they want a pass rushing end. The Jaguars need to have more than one pass rusher that can get to the QB and cause some pressure.

The Jaguars are a young, re-building team that doesn't show any signs of being competitive this year. Even if Gabbert does improve, I don't think they have any shot of finishing over .500 barring some big off-season acquisitions. Jacksonville will go through some pains this season and will probably not be too fun to watch. But that shouldn't be a worry for the 50 or so fans they actually have.

Indianapolis Colts

2011 Record: 2-14

We apparently found out this past season that one player can mean that much to a team. When Peyton Manning couldn't go this season, the entire team struggled. The offense had no leader and could not score points. The defense was then put in a bad situation and they suffered as a result. The defense also suffered through a handful of injuries at the linebacker and cornerback position. That resulted in the Colts getting the 1st overall pick in this Year's Draft, and the right to draft QB Andrew Luck. That obviously creates a dilemma with Luck and Manning. Luck isn't the type of prospect that you want sitting for a couple of years. Luck is ready to play now. The Colts also have a new coach in former Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano. Pagano will bring a new attitude to the Colts, much different than the bland and boring Jim Caldwell.

Biggest Question: Do I Even Have to State It? Two Words: Peyton Manning!

Everyday there is a different story out regarding Peyton Manning. Some days he is back to 100% and ready to play. Other days he can't throw a ball for the life of him and has to retire. Then Peyton and Colts owner Jim Irsay are negotiating, then they aren't. Peyton Manning is one of my favorite athletes ever, but even I am starting to get sick of all of the Peyton talk. They key date is March 8. That is when Peyton is due his $28 million roster bonus. If Manning can't prove that he is healthy, there is no way the Colts pay him that. The Colts know what they are getting with Andrew Luck, and they won't hesitate to cut or trade Peyton if he isn't 100%. My gut tells me Peyton won't be a Colt next year. It is just way too much money to commit to a QB who may never be fully healthy ever again.

Top 3 Free Agents

1. Reggie Wayne: Wide Receiver

Wayne has been the go to WR for Peyton ever since Marvin Harrison left. Wayne is going to be 34 at the start of the season and while he says he would come back to be a part of the re-build, I find it highly unlikely the Colts retain him. Wayne will catch on with a Championship caliber team.

2. Pierre Garcon: Wide Receiver

Garcon turned out to be the Colts most valuable WR last year. He lead the team in receiving yards and receptions. He is a speed WR who can burn defenders and would help Luck greatly.

3. Robert Mathis: Defensive End

Dwight Freeney is the Colts top pass rusher, but Mathis isn't too shabby either. He is over 30 but still has the speed to get to the QB and will attract some attention this off-season. I doubt Mathis comes back to Indy if they are re-building, but it will be interesting to see if Mathis can produce on a consistent basis without Dwight Freeney on the opposite end of him.

Top Needs

1. Interior Lineman

Center Jeff Saturday and Guards Mike Pollack and Ryan Diem are all free agents. Saturday will more than likely follow Peyton wherever he goes. Even if the Colts re-sign one or both guards, they still need to get better upfront, otherwise Andrew Luck won't have much of a career in the NFL.

2. Secondary

The Colts cornerbacks and safeties may be the worst starters in the league. They were consistently burned on a regular basis all year. Teams could pick them apart with ease. Somehow they need to get better, especially at the cornerback position.

3. Wide Receiver

Along with Wayne and Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez is also a free agent. That would leave Austin Collie and Blair White as the team's starters. Some WRs might look forward to playing with a young phenom like Andrew Luck, but those types probably wouldn't help the Colts win. Luck needs weapons though if he is going to be good in his first year.

The Colts are a re-building team, but the future will be bright with Andrew Luck. Luck will be under center for this team for years, very similar to Peyton Manning. If the Colts build around him right then they will be back to the top of the league in the next five years. But Luck needs a strong supporting cast, and that has to start with a strong Draft class this year.

There you have it. The first of eight Division previews. Don't know which Division will be next, but look for it during the middle of next week.

Until Next Time,

Justin C

Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

Super Bowl XLVI Preview

It is almost here. The day every football fan waits for. A day where even non-football fans sit down and enjoy the game of football.

Super Bowl 46 is this Sunday, and it is a match-up that at least NBC, and I'm sure the NFL is happy about. The New York Giants and New England Patriots go at it this Sunday in Indianapolis, with the winner being Champions of the NFL. Why does NBC, the NFL and the advertisers love this match-up? It's simple: New York vs Boston, two of the biggest markets in the USA.

NFL Championship Weekend Preview

The second last one of these of the year. Last week was the complete opposite of what I was expecting. Saints/49ers ended up being the best game of the weekend, and may have been the best non-Super Bowl game I have ever watched. The game I was expecting to be the best, Giants/Packers, ended up being a Giants romp in the 2nd half. The Patriots wiped the floor with the Broncos, and the Ravens held on late to take out the Texans. I finished 3-1 on the week, just like in the Wild Card round, with my only loss the Packers. And that was the game I felt the least confident about. Just like last week, I will give a brief write-up about the team's that lost last weekend.

New Orleans: There is no doubt that the Saints will be a Super Bowl contender again next year. Greg Williams left the Saints to become defensive coordinator of the Rams, but that may end up being a good thing for the Saints. Their defense was torched by Alex Smith and have lacked the same punch they had the last couple of years. And with Steve Spagnuolo in the fold, the defense should be even better. The Saints will sign Drew Brees to a big contract, and that alone will make the Saints still contenders, even if they lose Marques Colston or Robert Meachem in free agency.

Denver: John Elway says Tim Tebow has done enough to be the starter heading into Broncos training camp, and he's right. Tebow will only continue to improve as the Broncos make an offense that suits Tebow's strengths. While the Broncos offense still needs some work, their defense showed they aren't as good as they thought they were against Tom Brady. They need some help in the secondary big time, and could use a good coverage linebacker as well. The AFC West could be down again next year, so the Broncos have every opportunity to win it again next year.

Houston: The Texans were affected by a rash of injuries throughout the year. T.J. Yates struggled against Baltimore, throwing two bad interceptions in the process. With Matt Schaub back next year, as well as pass rusher Mario Williams, the Texans should still remain a top contender in the AFC next year. No one in the AFC South looks particularly threatening. Even if Peyton Manning returns, there is no idea what kind of team he will have around him.

Green Bay: The Packers shot themselves in the foot against the Giants. Multiple dropped passes, turnovers, and that hail mary at the end of the half killed the Packers chances. Green Bay needs some serious help on defense next year, especially in the secondary. The Packers also need to establish some kind of run game early in the season to help take some pressure off of Aaron Rodgers. Just like the Saints, expect the Packers to be contending for the Super Bowl again next year.

Now, on to the Picks!

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: 3:00 P.M. on CBS
Many people saw these two teams meeting up in late January for the right to go to the Super Bowl. The Patriots have gotten here pretty much through their offense. While the Patriots defense has been playing a bit better as of late, they still have their weakness. They also haven't played a team the caliber of the Ravens this year. Tom Brady hasn't faced a defense as good as the Ravens. The Ravens usually give Brady fits, and it should be no different here. Baltimore is once again knocking on the door of the Super Bowl and look to finally get over that hump this year. The parallels to the Ravens Super Bowl winning team is there. A strong defensive unit lead by an average QB. The Ravens defensive veterans know this could be their last shot at the Super Bowl, and you know they will be focused on getting there. Three Questions Time!

Can Joe Flacco Take Advantage of the Patriots Secondary?
The Patriots ranked 31st against the pass this year. There are no excuses for Joe Flacco in this one. Safety Ed Reed called out Flacco this week, saying Flacco looked a bit rattled against the Texans and that he needs to get rid of the ball quicker. Flacco has been a big question mark all year. You never know what kind of performance you will get from him. But there is no doubt Flacco needs to play well here against a suspect Patriots secondary. But Flacco needs help. He needs his WRs to beat man coverage. Both Torrey Smith and Lee Evans are quite capable of beating the Pats deep. Joe Flacco needs to show that he can be the QB to take the Ravens to the Super Bowl, because if he doesn't so it this year, he may not have a chance to do it again.

Will the Ravens Be Able to Slow Down Tom Brady?
The Ravens ranked third in total defense this year, fourth against the pass. They also finished tied for third in sacks with 48. You can bet they will bring pressure on Tom Brady. Brady sat out practice Wednesday with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. While Brady says it's nothing, there still has to be something bothering him. Brady has thrown multiply touchdowns in all but two games this year. We know all of the weapons Brady has, so it is tough for defenses to bring pressure. But the Ravens won't be afraid to do that, mostly because the Patriots have almost know running game to speak of. The Ravens need to get to Brady early, because it can disrupt his game and get him frustrated.

Which Team Shuts Down the "X-Factors?"
Both the Ravens and the Patriots have what I like to call "x-factors," or players that can change the game in an instant. For the Ravens, that player is Ray Rice. Rice torched the Patriots in their last playoff meeting. Rice is so quick and explosive that it makes it very difficult for defenders to tackle him. He's a game changer and is capable of breaking a big run at any time. The "x-factors" for the Patriots are Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. These duel tight ends have been unstoppable in recent weeks. The Patriots have even been using Aaron Hernandez out of the backfield as a running back. You can bet Ed Reed and Ray Lewis will have something to say about these two tight ends getting open. Whichever defense can shut down  the x-factor for the other team has the best chance to come out on top.

PREDICTION
I don't see either team pulling away from the other. It doesn't look like that kind of game. The Ravens defense will step up big time in this one. If they can take out Gronkowski and Hernandez then Brady will have to rely on his second and third looks, and by that time the Ravens blitz may already have taken down Brady. The Patriots still gave up a handful of big runs to the Broncos last week, so they have to be worried about Ray Rice breaking one off. But as I said in the beginning, this game is on Joe Flacco. He doesn't have to play like Tom Brady, he just has to do enough to get his team a victory. He can't lead a bad Patriots defense get to him. The Ravens still need to build their game plan around Ray Rice, and not Flacco have the game on his shoulders. While Tom Brady has been playing great football recently, I think the Ravens defense does just enough to shut down Brady and pick up the road win on the way to the Super Bowl.

Baltimore 24  New England 20

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers: 6:30 P.M. on FOX
This is a game between two teams peaking at the right time. In the Giants case, they are clearly playing their best football of the season. They smoked the Falcons in the Playoffs and took out the defending Super Bowl Champions on their home turf. The Giants defense is finally healthy. Their pass rush is getting to the QB, and that is taking some of the burden off of their secondary. And Eli Manning is playing like an elite QB and his Playoff experience is showing. The 49ers offense came alive last week against the Saints. Alex Smith may have made up for all of his short comings so far in his career with that great TD run and then another great TD pass to Vernon Davis with 6 seconds left, a catch being called "The Catch 3" in San Francisco. The defense gave up a surprising amount of points, but the offense came to life in an unexpected way. I don't know if anyone thought the 49ers would win a shootout with New Orleans.

Will Eli Keep Up His "ELIte" Performance?
In two Playoff games, Eli Manning has looked great. He has thrown 6 TDs in two games and has a passer rating of 121.8. Eli has what may be the best trio of WRs in the league with Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham. With the 49ers having the best run defense in the NFL, expect this game to come down to the arm of Manning for the Giants. While the 49ers corners are very good, their safeties can be exposed. Specifically, Donte Whitner was burned for two TDs against the Saints. Expect Eli to target him often, even if it is with TE Jake Ballard. Whitner struggles to cover TEs in coverage, so Eli might be able to take advantage. The 49ers defense was torched by Drew Brees, and while Brees is still better than Eli, Eli can take advantage just like Brees did.

Is Alex Smith For Real?
While Alex Smith has improved this year under Jim Harbaugh, I don't think anyone saw his performance against the Saints coming. With 299 yards and 3 TDs, Alex Smith finally looked like a #1 pick. Smith's 26 yard TD run to put the 49ers up was a thing of beauty. Smith was sacked four times last week, and he will face a better pass rush this week with the Giants coming to town. Smith will need to get the ball out quickly in order to avoid having Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyora and Justin Tuck in his face. Expect the Giants to try and take away Vernon Davis and make the 49ers WRs beat them, which is something San Francisco can not allow. They also can't let the emotion of last week's win distract them from their goal. Alex Smith has shown this year that he can lead a team to the Playoffs, and a win here will show that Smith may not have the flash of a #1 overall pick, but he can do enough to get the job done.

How Much of A Factor Will the Weather Be?
The forecast for the game this Sunday is not a good one. There is a 70% chance of rain after kickoff with some high winds expected. That could lead to a sloppy game on the grass field in San Francisco. If that is the case, then the edge may be in the 49ers court. Frank Gore is a very good runner capable of breaking a big run. The Giants had the last ranked running attack in the NFL in the regular season but it came alive in the late portions of the season. Specifically, Brandon Jacobs looks like he's running with purpose. Jacobs has been running over defenders at a constant basis. But he will face the ultimate test against the #1 rush defense in the NFL. If rain is a factor, I think the edge goes to the 49ers.

PREDICTION
This is a tough game to predict. The 49ers are coming off of a huge, emotionally charged win against one of the best offenses and QBs the NFL has seen in the last decade. The 49ers will also have the home crowd behind them. San Francisco is coming off one of the most unexpected season's in NFL history. Jim Harbaugh has lead them to the Playoffs and has brought new life to the 49ers orginization. But the Giants are playing their best football of the season and may have been the best team in the league in the last month of the season. Eli Manning isn't afraid of going on the road in the Playoffs. He's won in Lambeau twice, so San Francisco isn't that intimidating to him. The 49ers defense can't have lapses like they had last week against Drew Brees. This game will be won by whichever team gets more pressure on the QB. Despite his strong performance last week, I think the Giants get to Alex Smith and it rattles him a bit, and Eli Manning makes a few big plays to his WRs and takes the Giants to their second Super Bowl under Eli and Tom Coughlin.

NY Giants 27  San Francisco 23

There you ahve it. Obviously nothing next week, but for the Super Bowl I will have a postion by position breakdown of the match-up, as well as the 3 keys and x-factors to the game.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Divisional Round Preview

Here I am, back again. It is Playoff Weekend again in the NFL, but now the big boys in both conferences are here. I went 3-1 last week, with my only loss being Pittsburgh against Denver. But you have to hand it to big play Tebow in that one. First let me share my thoughts on the losing teams from Wild Card Weekend.

-Cincinnati played tough, but that pick 6 killed all of their momentum heading into the second half. That is the one thing Andy Dalton had to avoid heading into half time. The Bengals are still a young team and will be back in the hunt for a Playoff spot next year. Having Jay Gruden stay on as offensive coordinator and not leave for Jacksonville or Miami is huge for them. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will continue to grow into one of the best QB-WR tandems in the league, and that defense isn't going anywhere. Hopefully next year people actually come to watch this team play.

NFL Week 17 Picks

Last week of regular season picks. I will do a preview for each round of the Playoffs as well, then more than likely an off-season preview in March and April, along with a Draft preview as well.

Last Week's Record: 10-6
Year to Date Record: 153-87

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
This is a match-up of two offenses that are fun to watch for different reasons. For Carolina, they have the always entertaining Cam Newton for them at QB. Newton's big arm and play making abilities on the ground make him a duel threat under center. Along with Johnathan Stewart and DeAngleo Williams, the Panthers have one of the best running attacks in the league. The Panthers are going to be a popular playoff pick next year, and this match-up could be a bigger game next year for both teams. The Panthers need to get healthy on defense and if they do that, watch out. The Saints offense is fun to watch because they have Drew Brees at QB. Brees has one of the best football minds in the game. He finds his open WR every play. It doesn't matter if it is his first option or fourth option, Brees finds him. Brees just broke Dan Marino's single season passing record, so he doesn't have that to play for this game. But the Saints are still fighting for a 1st round bye, but that seems unlikely with the 49ers easy match-up. But the Saints will play hard here. The Panthers almost knocked off the Saints earlier in the season, but a late Saints TD drive stopped that. I think the Saints pull out a close one here. Brees will pick apart a weak Panthers secondary.

New Orleans 35  Carolina 24

NFL Week 16 Review

It is almost Playoff time. Lets take a look at Week 16 action first!

Team of the Week: Detroit Lions
-The Lions get this spot for clinching their first playoff berth since 1999. There were high hopes for the Lions at the start of the season, and they lived up to that hype with a 5-0 start. The Lions encountered some road bumps in the middle of the season but have won three in a row, and they dominated the red hot San Diego Chargers on Saturday to secure their Wild Card berth. Matthew Stafford has turned into a promising franchise QB, and the Lions have found ways to make their offense work when teams shut down Calvin Johnson. The defense is still a bit shaky, but if the Lions passing game keeps playing as well as they are, they can give teams fits in the playoffs. The Lions would be a tough out for the Giants or Cowboys.

Game of the Week: Indianapolis Colts 19  Houston Texans 16
-Not a lot of good choices this week. Nothing really stood out. So I'm giving the nod to this game. The Colts drove down the field on the Texans and Reggie Wayne caught the game winning TD pass with under one minute left to win their second straight game and put their chances at Andrew Luck in jeopardy. The Colts face a bad Jaguars team next week, and with the Rams facing a good 49ers team, the Rams could steal the #1 pick. And the Rams could get a boatload in return for that pick. The Texans have lost two in a row and the offense has sputtered a bit in recent weeks. The Texans defense also shouldn't let Dan Orlovsky drive down the field like he did on Thursday. The Texans have some kinks to work out before the Playoffs start, otherwise they could be one and done.

Dog of the Week: Rex Ryan, NY Jets Coach
-I'm sorry Rex, but it is time to shut that yap of yours and only open it when you are able to back what comes out of it up. Ryan talked a big game heading into the big Giants/Jets showdown in the Big Apple, and his Jets didn't show up. Apparently, Giants RB Brandon Jacobs told him to shut his mouth after the game, and it is about time someone else did. Even if the Jets find a way to sneak into the Playoffs, they won't have the success they have had the last few years. The team regressed badly this year, especially QB Mark Sanchez. Why is he throwing the ball 40+ times in a game. He isn't that good of a QB to do that. Ryan's mouth hasn't backed up anything yet, and until he gets a ring of his own, he will always be second fiddle in New York.

Other Week 16 Notes
-I think it is safe to say that the luster is finally off of Tim Tebow. Tebow's Denver Broncos were blown out again, this time by a Buffalo Bills team that had lost seven in a row headed into this week. The Bills defense used a four man front and forced Tebow to stay in the pocket and throw. And watching Tebow in person, he does not have a very good arm. If Tebow can't run and make plays, he isn't a very good QB. Now the Broncos face a must win situation this week against Kansas City. Win and the Broncos are in the Playoffs. But you know Kyle Orton, the man Tebow replaced, is dying to help keep his former team out of the Playoffs. The Chiefs defense has been playing very well as of late. Even in defeat, the Chiefs have only allowed one team since Week 12, the Jets in Week 14, to score more than 16 points. Tebow might need all of the magic he has left to help his Broncos win the AFC West.

-If I look back at my AFC Preview, I'm pretty sure I said the Bengals would be the worst team in the AFC this year. Well, it looks like I was completely wrong. The Bengals are one win away from getting the last Wild Card Spot in the AFC. Beat Baltimore at home this week and the Bengals are in. The Bengals got lucky against the Cardinals. Had Cardinals WR Early Doucet not tripped over the goal line, that game would have been going to overtime. But the Bengals control their own destiny, and that is all you can ask for heading into Week 17. The question is: Can a young Bengals team rise up to the challenge and beat a very good Ravens team that will be fighting for the AFC North Title? With the Steelers playing the Browns, the Ravens know they are going to have to win this game to clinch the AFC North and get a first round bye. The AFC North may be the best division in all of football.

-Watching Drew Brees and the Saints offense on Monday night, you have to wonder if they are the actual favorites to win the NFC. The Saints offense with Brees under center is almost unstoppable. They put up 41 points against a good Falcons defense. With the Packers heading into the Playoffs, you have to worry about their defense and if it can stop Brees for even one possession. Brees broke Dan Marino's NFL single season passing yards record last night and deserves some consideration for MVP this year. I know Aaron Rodgers had his team undefeated all year, but the Saints would be absolutely nowhere without Brees. I don't see anything preventing a Saints/Packers rematch for the NFC Championship, and I think these two are the heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl again.

Hey I'm Just Sayin...
-Good thing it isn't up to Raheem Morris if he has to fire himself or not.

-Do the Rams take Andrew Luck and trade Sam Bradford? Or vice versa?

-Can T.J. Yates get the Texans out of the 1st round?

-The only way the 49ers are winning in the Playoffs is if the defense shuts down everyone.

-How did the AFC South become the worst division in football?

-Watch out for the Panthers next year.

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
1. New England Patriots  12-3  vs Buffalo
2. Baltimore Ravens  11-4  at Cincinnati
3. Houston Texans  10-5  vs Tennessee
4. Denver Broncos  8-7  vs Kansas City
5. Pittsburgh Steelers  11-4  at Cleveland
6. Cincinnati Bengals  9-6  vs Baltimore
--------------------------------------------------------
7. Oakland Raiders  8-7  at San Diego
8. Tennessee Titans  8-7  at Houston
9. New York Jets  8-7  at Miami

The Wild Card Scenarios for all of the 8-7 teams are a bit complicated, so let me just tell you what I think happens. I think every team in the Wild Card race loses except the Titans. In that scenario, the Bengals and Titans both finish 9-7, and the Bengals would get in because they beat the Titans earlier in the year. I also think the Broncos beat the Chiefs and win the AFC West. The Pats clinch home field, and the Ravens win the AFC North, leaving the playoffs like this in the AFC.

1. New England
2. Baltimore
6. Cincinnati Bengals vs 3. Houston Texans
5. Pittsburgh Steelers vs 4. Denver Broncos

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
1. Green Bay Packers  14-1  vs Detroit
2. San Francisco 49ers  12-3  at St. Louis
3. New Orleans Saints  12-3  vs Carolina
4. New York Giants  8-7  vs Dallas
5. Detroit Lions  10-5  at Green Bay
6. Atlanta Falcons  9-6  vs Tampa Bay
--------------------------------------------------------
7. Dallas Cowboys  8-7  at NY Giants

Everything spot wise is set in the NFC besides the NFC East crown. Seeding is still up for grabs. I think the Giants beat the Cowboys in the finale. I also think the Lions beat the Packers in Lambeau. The Lions will play for the 5 seed because it means not going to New Orleans or San Francisco in Round 1. I think the seeds stay exactly as they are now in the NFC.

Three Games I'd Like to See Next Week
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants: The team that makes the least amount of dumb mistakes wins.
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals: Can the Bengals cap a surprise season in front of 45,000 "fans."
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos: Can TEBOWMANIA rebound after two bad performances.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 16 Picks

Not a good week for me last week, maybe I can rebound.

Last Week's Record: 7-9
Year to Date Record: 143-81

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Could this be another trap game for the Texans? The Panthers went up early on the Texans last week and didn't look back. T.J. Yates didn't play terrible, but he didn't do enough to help his team win, and that could be a problem come playoff time. The Texans pass defense, which had been strong all year, was beaten by Cam Newton. Maybe it was Wade Phillips not being there, but the Texans defense just seemed a bit off last week. The Colts finally won last week, and it was their defense that made some plays. Surprisingly, the Colts shut down Chris Johnson last week. The Colts have been playing hard the last few weeks, and it finally paid off for them last week. You bet the Colts remember the beating the Texans gave them in Week One, but I don't know if the Colts have enough to pull off an upset for the second week in a row. I think the Texans right the ship this week and win a close one.

Houston 21  Indianapolis 17

Oakland Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
The slow collapse of the Raiders continues. Losers of three in a row, the Raiders once bright Playoff chances now appear to be dim. The Raiders had a win in their sights last week, but they let the Lions drive 96 yards downfield to take the lead. A lot of the poor play can contributed to the defense, which has given up 34, 46, and 28 points during this three game losing streak. But a lot of the blame can be given to Carson Palmer as well, who hasn't been playing as well as he did during his start with the Raiders. He sure doesn't look worth a 1st round pick right now. The Chiefs, meanwhile, pulled off the upset of the year last week when they handed the Packers their first loss. The team played hard under interim coach Romeo Crennel, who made a strong case to get the permanent head coaching gig. The defense stepped up big time for the Chiefs, holding the Packers to their lowest point total of the year. If the Chiefs can hold the Packers to 14 points, I think they can keep the Raiders in check. Give me the Chiefs here.

Kansas City 23  Oakland 13

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
What else is their to say about the Jaguars at this point? Blaine Gabbert continues to look terrible, the defense got shredded by the Falcons last week.This is an organization in need of a complete overhaul in the off-season. The Titans lost a crucial game last week against the then winless Colts, pretty much crushing their playoff chances in the process. The Titans have looked better the last few weeks with Jake Locker in at QB and not Matt Hasselbeck. I think Locker is the QB next year for sure, but who gets the nod this week? It's Hasselbeck if he is healthy, but does he give the Titans the best chance to win? I don't think so. I would start Locker, but I'm sure Coach Munchak thinks the veteran gives him the best chance. Either way, the Titans should take care of the lowly Jags here. The Titans playoff hopes stay alive.

Tennessee 20  Jacksonville 10

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
The Dolphins are doing just enough to make sure they aren't in position to get a top QB in the draft next year. Matt Moore is playing well enough to warrant a chance at the starting next year, but he did the same thing when he was with Carolina, and it didn't work out as well as they hoped. The good news for the Dolphins is that Reggie Bush is surprising everyone with his performance as the featured back in Miami. I never thought Reggie Bush would be a featured back, but he's proving me wrong. The Patriots showed last week again why they are the constant class of the NFL. Going into Denver against a red hot Broncos team, the Pats put up 41 points against a good Broncos defense. Tom Brady relied on some of his secondary options in the game, specifically Aaron Hernandez and Chad Ochocinco. The defense did enough to help its team win. They still aren't all the way there, but if the offense can put up 30+ points on a constant basis, then the defense's flaws can be hidden. The Pats win here. They are the better football team.

New England 38  Miami 24

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals
All John Skelton does is win. The Cardinals are now 7-7 and are clinging to their playoff lives. I don't think they make it, but they definitely showed signs of improvement towards the end of the year. I don't think Skelton is the QB of the future either, but it definitely shows that the Cardinals may have made a mistake in trading for Kevin Kolb this off-season. Beanie Wells is finally living up to his potential at RB, and the defense has played better in recent weeks. And Patrick Peterson is turning into the next Devin Hester of punt returns. The Bengals are in a tie for the last playoff spot in the AFC with the Jets. The Bengals play their last two games at home, but that may not even help considering no one shows up for those games. The defense will face a big test with Larry Fitzgerald coming to town. Skelton looks his way often, and the Bengals pass defense has been shaky the last few games. I expect a heavy dose of Cedric Benson from the Bengals in this one, especially with A.J. Green a bit banged up. The Cardinals are playing good football right now, but I'm not a fan of teams going from west to east coast to play early games. Give me the Bengals here.

Cincinnati 24  Arizona 21

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
TebowMania was brought back down to Earth last week. Tebow himself didn't play bad, but the defense did not hold up its end of the bargain. If the Broncos expect to make the Playoffs and compete, then they need to put up a better showing then they did against New England. The good news for the Broncos is that they face an easy rebound game here against a down and out Bills team, losers of seven straight. Their run defense is still awful, so expect a lot of Tebow and Willis McGahee here. With Von Miller and Elvis Dumervill rushing Ryan Fitzpatrick, expect a lot of bad throws leading to turnovers. The Bills may already be regretting Ryan Fitzpatrick's contract. The Broncos know a win here could clinch the AFC West for them, so they give their all and take down the Bills.

Denver 28  Buffalo 17

St. Louis Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers don't know if Ben Roethlisberger can play this week, but does it really matter? A Charlie Batch lead team should be able to beat this lowly Rams squad. All they have to do is take advantage of cornerbacks number 11 and 12 who are starting for the Rams this off-season. And they can do that when they pound the ball with Rashard Mendenhall, setting up the play action. I don't know if Kellen Clemons can lead the Rams into the end zone in this one. Steelers win easily.

Pittsburgh 27  St. Louis 6

New York Giants vs New York Jets
It's the Battle of New York, and both of these teams are coming off horrible losses. The Giants, after going to Dallas and winning, lost to the Redskins at home last week. That's a bad thing to do. The Giants looked like they had all of the momentum headed down the stretch, but they just hit a serious road block. It was the Giants second bad home loss of the season, with this loss going with their Seattle loss. The Giants offense was shut down by a defense that gave up 30+ points to the Patriots and Jets the last two weeks. The secondary, which was burned by Tony Romo two weeks ago, was burned again by Rex Grossman. The Giants can still make the playoffs if they win out, but they are facing a just as hungry Jets team in this one. The Jets were embarrassed in Philadelphia. They were never even really in the game. Mark Sanchez looked awful. The defense was burned by Mike Vick constantly. The Jets just looked like they didn't show up to play. The Jets have played well against bad teams this year, but have only beaten one team with a record over .500, and that is the Cowboys in Week 1. This one really is toss up, but I think the Giants are the slightly better team, and they win this one.

NY Giants 27  NY Jets 23

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Redskins
The Redskins have shown signs of life in the last few weeks, and it makes you wonder why Mike Shanahan ever switched to John Beck during the season. The Redskins improved play can also be contributed to the emergence of Roy Helu in the backfield. Helu has become the centerpiece of the Skins offense, and it is allowing the passing game to open up with Santana Moss, and Brandon Banks throwing trick passes.The Vikings are also showing fight on offense, but the defense is so banged up that it is tough for them to stop anybody, especially in the secondary. The Vikings offense is better because everyone is finally healthy. Percy Harvin is now a duel threat and just as dangerous as Adrian Peterson. I'm still going with the Vikings here. They are playing the better overall football right now.

Washington 31  Minnesota 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers
Tampa continues falling, falling falling. They didn't look like they cared last week against Dallas. Just like Jacksonville, there is nothing new to write about this team. It looks like the Bucs have packed it in and are ready to hit the off-season. The Panthers are coming off of a big road upset last week against Houston. I said during my Week 15 Review that the Panthers are a team to watch next year, especially when they get healthy on defense. Cam Newton is the next Mike Vick at QB, and the running game has finally emerged after a slow start. They also have a duel threat at TE with Greg Olson and Jeremy Shockey. The Panthers are the better team, and they win here.

Carolina 34  Tampa Bay 23

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
The bad Joe Flacco showed up last week for Baltimore, and that is a bad thing if he is going to play like that on the road in the Playoffs. The good news for the Ravens is that they may only need to go on the road once during the Playoffs. But they also steered away from Ray Rice too early in last Sunday's loss to San Diego. Rice should be getting 30 touches a game through the air and ground. It takes the pressure off of Flacco. But you also have to be worried about the defensive effort of the Ravens last week, giving up 34 points to the Chargers. They shouldn't do that against the lowly Browns this week. Seneca Wallace, Colt McCoy, Bernie Kosar couldn't help the Browns now. They could be the least relevant team in football. The Ravens win here.

Baltimore 28  Cleveland 10

San Diego Chargers vs Detroit Lions
To me, this is a more intriguing game then the Battle of New York. The Chargers are riding a 3 game winning streak and are one game out of the AFC West and the last AFC Wild Card spot. Phillip Rivers has lost only two games as a starter in December. There's something about this month that he likes. The Chargers running game has also come alive, with Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews complementing the other very well. The Chargers defense, which had been shaky all year, has given up 14, 10, and 14 points the last three weeks. And in the week they gave up 10 points against the Bills, the one touchdown was scored by the Bills defense. The Lions are one win away from clinching the team's first playoff berth in a decade. The Lions had a great come from behind win last week against Oakland. The Lions offense has done a good job of adjusting to the double and triple teams on WR Calvin Johnson. Matthew Stafford is spreading out the ball more to WRs Titus Young and Nate Burleson, as well as TE Brandon Pettigrew. The Lions defense is still a liability in the secondary, and that could be a problem with the Chargers coming to town. Even if the Lions shut down Antonio Gates, they still have to worry about all of the other Chargers weapons at WR. I've been switching my pick for this game all week. The Lions know they go to Green Bay next week, so they need the win. But the Chargers are red hot right now, and I don't think I can bet against them.

San Diego 35  Detroit 31

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
Jerry Jones said that he is scared of the Eagles. And he should be. Mike Vick and the Eagles offense has come alive in the last few weeks. It is the way they should have been playing all year. The Cowboys have had problems in the secondary this year, and you know Mike Vick and Co. will take advantage of it. If the Eagles played like they did all year the last two weeks, maybe they would actually be leading the NFC East right now. The Eagles three headed trio will look to shut down the Cowboys three headed trio of WRs. But they also have to worry about Jason Witten. The Cowboys passing attack, and offense hasn't been the problem this year. The defense, specifically the secondary, hasn't improved much under Rob Ryan. Tony Romo doesn't play the best all the time, but the secondary has been constantly bad all year. The loss of DeMarco Murray hasn't slowed down the Cowboys offense with Felix Jones playing his part well. This game has high scoring affair written all over it. The Eagles whipped the Cowboys in Philly, but it will be closer here. But I still like the Eagles to pull off a mild upset.

Philadelphia 35  Dallas 30

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers fought through two separate power outages on Monday night to beat a very good Pittsburgh Steelers team. It keeps the 49ers hopes of a first round bye alive. It also showed just how dominant the 49ers defense is. They shut down the Steelers offense. Now sure Ben Roethlisberger was hurt, but it still takes a lot to shut down the Steelers. Alex Smith did just enough to help his team win. He still missed a couple of throws, but as long as he doesn't make mistakes then he will be fine. Seattle's hot streak continued with their third straight win last week in Chicago. They essentially ended the Bears playoff hopes while strengthening theirs. It will still take a lot for Seattle to get in. The only way Seattle gets in is with two straight wins and two straight Lions losses. It isn't out of the realm of possibility, especially with the Lions difficult schedule. The 49ers haven't given up a rushing touchdown all year, and Marshawn Lynch has scored a TD in 10 straight games. Something gives here, and I think Lynch finds his way into the end zone. I'm giving the edge to Seattle in a close, low scoring affair.

Seattle 16  San Francisco 13

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
This Christmas night game looked way more appealing about a month ago. Now the Bears are starting Luke McCown at QB after Caleb Hanie has looked terrible the last three weeks. It isn't all his fault, if Matt Forte was still in the backfield I think the Bears offense would be better. But Hanie also threw a couple of bad interceptions last week which were inexcusable. The Bears playoff hopes are on life support at this point, and they are getting an angry Packers team in Lambeau. The Packers suffered their first loss of the season last week at Kansas City. The offense finally met its match with a very good Chiefs defense. The Bears defense is just as good, but the Packers also put up 27 points on the Bears in Week 3. Aaron Rodgers should be able to pass the ball on the Bears. The Bears have a good run defense but the Packers don't rely on the run, so that doesn't matter too much. The Packers defense also should rebound nicely after last week. They didn't play terrible, but they also couldn't get the Packers offense the ball back when they needed to stop the Chiefs. The Packers clinch the #1 seed in the NFC with a win, and they get that here against a bad Bears offense.

Green Bay 34  Chicago 14

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
We all remember what happened the last time these two teams played. In over time, the Falcons went for a 4th and 1 at their own 28 yard line and they were stopped. Many people questioned Mike Smith's tactics. Did he not trust his defense to stop Drew Brees? Hell, I wouldn't trust the 85 Bears defense to stop Drew Brees at this point. Atlanta has won four of five since that game, and they still have a shot at winning the NFC South if they win in New Orleans. The Saints defense hasn't been that intimidating in recent weeks, and Matt Ryan has been playing very well. His WRs, Roddy White and Julio Jones, have played very well in recent weeks. While the Falcons offense has been playing well, the Saints offense is on another level. Drew Brees is trying to force his way into the MVP discussion. Brees has so many targets that it is almost too easy for him. He also has Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas at his disposal in the back field. The Saints offense is just too difficult to focus on one person to stop. You have to get pressure on Drew Brees, but even then, he can still get rid of the ball in a quick and timely manner. I think this game is high scoring, but the Saints pull out the win. Just too many weapons all around.

New Orleans 31  Atlanta 27

My Vegas $$$ Picks
Last Week's Record: 0-4 (Not So Money Huh?)
Year to Date Record: 34-25-1

Denver -3 at Buffalo: Bills can't score, and the Broncos defense is better than they showed last week.

NY Giants +3 at NY Jets: I think the Giants have more talent and have a better offense.

Pittsburgh -14 vs St. Louis: Rams might not score 14 points.

Green Bay -13 vs Chicago: The Bears offense is BAD.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka