JC's Take: Stars, Goats and Notes From Week 13 of the NFL

Team of the Week: Seattle Seahawks
-Seattle has the suspensions of Cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman facing them right in the face. So what do they do? They went into Chicago and beat a very good Bears team, putting them in pretty good shape to make a run at the Playoffs. And the NFC West crown is not out of the question as well. The Seahawks came back in the 4th quarter to take the lead late. After Chicago was able to tie the game, Seattle received the ball first in over time. Russell Wilson drove the offense right down the field against a very good Chicago defense and scored the game winning touchdown on a pass to Sidney Rice. Seattle now has a one game lead for the last Wild Card spot. While Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin get all of the attention, Russell Wilson is quietly putting together a good season in Seattle. No matter what the stats say, anytime you have a winning record this late in the season is a good thing. And kudos to Pete Carroll for doing a great job coaching up this group.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Not bad last week. Better than my fantasy football teams.

Last Week: 11-5
Year to Date: 118-57

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
This may be the second best rivalry in the NFL. I don't know if anything will top the Ravens/Steelers in the near future, but this one is starting to get close. It is becoming pretty apparent through various players words in the media that these teams do not like each other. The Saints ended the Falcons undefeated season the last time these two teams played. New Orleans came up with a big goal line stand and did not allow the Falcons to take the lead in the fourth quarter. The Saints are coming off a loss that saw their offense get stopped by the 49ers defense. They got to Drew Brees and returned two interceptions for touchdowns. Atlanta doesn't have the pass rushers to get to Brees like the 49ers do, so Brees will have more time here. Atlanta got out of Tampa Bay with a win and placed a strangle hold on the NFC South. Atlanta has the offensive fire power to stay with the Saints in this one. This won't be a defensive struggle. If Matt Ryan and the Falcons want to take the next step, they need to win this one. I like the Falcons to take this one. They got Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rogers going last week. If they can get rolling come Playoff time, the Falcons offense gets that much better.

Atlanta 34  New Orleans 28

NFL Week 12 Picks

So close to perfection. Damn You Rams!

I went 3-0 on Thanksgiving. If you don't believe me check my Twitter!

Last Week's Record: 13-1
Year to Date: 107-52

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
Chicago needs Jay Cutler in a bad way. I understand Jason Campbell went up against a very good defense last week, but he still looked beyond terrible against the 49ers. He looked uncomfortable in the pocket and did not deal well with the pressure that the 49ers brought. Cutler still has not been cleared to play yet, so that makes his status for this game a question mark. Cutler makes a world of difference for this team. You know the Bears defense will be out to make a statement after a poor performance against the 49ers. It was the most points the Bears have given up all year, and it was to a QB starting his first game. The Vikings wanted to use their bye week to get their star WR Percy Harvin healthy, but Harvin has yet to practice this week. Having Harvin play takes pressure off of Adrian Peterson. Without Harvin, teams can crowd the box to stop Peterson. Christian Ponder has struggled mightily in his last few games, even failing to go over 100 passing yards in two of his last four. Both teams may be missing stars, but I like the Bears defense to take advantage of Christian Ponder and grind out a win here.

Chicago 17  Minnesota 13

JC's Take: Stars, Goats and Notes from Week 11 of the NFL

Team of the Week: San Francisco 49ers
-In the battle of back-up QBs, Colin Kapernick won. And he may have just created a QB controversy in San Francisco. The 49ers dominated the entire football game Monday night. Not only that, but they had continued success driving down the field against a very good Bears defense. The 49ers defense got to Jason Campbell, causing six sacks and two interceptions. San Francisco imposed their will on both sides of the ball and finally looked like the team I picked to go to the Super Bowl at the start of the year. You have to wonder if Jim Harbaugh goes back to Alex Smith or rides the hot hand with Kapernick next week. Great performance by the 49ers.

Game of the Week: Houston 43  Jacksonville 37 (OT)
-Thank You Andre Johnson. Thank You Matt Schaub. In my picks blog this week, I said that if Jacksonville won, I would write a 10,000 word blog talking about the Jaguars victory. I wasn't kidding. I was getting ready to start working on that today. But the Texans offense saved my ass and came up with a big play in over time to secure the Texans a late victory. When Blaine Gabbert left the game in the first quarter, Chad Henne took command and the Jaguars looked like a completely different team with him under center. You have to wonder why Henne hasn't been starting earlier. I know they wanted to develop Gabbert, but it was evident after five games this year that he wasn't the answer. For the Texans, this game exposed some holes they have and need to be fixed. It also showed that they are beatable and are now sure fire bets to win the AFC in a run away.

The "Adrian Peterson Is On A Bye, So I Have To Pick Other Guys" 3 Stars Of The Week
3. Julian Edelman
The one thing I like about Bill Bellicheat is that he always finds ways to have one guy you didn't expect play a big part in beating you. This week that guy was Julian Edelman. Edelman returned a punt for a touchdown and also caught a pass for a touchdown. He was also one tackle away from returning a kickoff for one as well. Edelman isn't someone who wows you with his athletic ability, but he's a hard worker who can make a play if you take him lightly.

2. A.J. Green
If you still have doubts about A.J. Green being one of the Top 5 WRs in the league, then you don't know football. Green had another touchdown catch this week in Cincinnati's rout of the Chiefs. That gives Green 10 on the year. He's had one in every game this year except for Week 1. You have to wonder where Cincinnati's offense would be without Green. They really don't have too many other weapons. Sooner or later, teams will have to start doubling him like they do Calvin Johnson.

1. Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson
These two share the award because they both put up some tremendous stats this week against Jacksonville. Schaub threw for 527 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Johnson caught 14 passes for 273 yards and scored the game winning touchdown. This is just an example of what the Texans could have been like all these years if everyone on offense had stayed healthy. Things are finally starting to come together in Houston, and they have the Super Bowl in their sights.

The Almost As Bad As Most Cancelled Fall TV Shows 3 Goats of the Week
3. Philadelphia Eagles Defense
I don't know how much more evidence you need to see that the Eagles have quit on this season. That may have been some of the worst coverage I have seen in my football watching life this past week. Robert Griffin had all day to throw and the secondary just had complete lapses in coverage, allowing WRs to get open. I'm surprised Andy Reid is still coaching this team.

2. Ken Wisenhunt
OK. I understand that John Skelton has been struggling lately. But why in your right mind would you pull him, on the road, with your team surprisingly in the lead, against one of the best team's in the NFC. And it isn't even like it was a veteran. It was a rookie QB who has not seen the field this year. Needless to say, Ryan Lindley did not fair to well, and Arizona lost their lead. Is Wisenhunt trying to lose his job?

1. Bart Scott
Bart Scott used to be a very good team leader for the Jets.Now, you have to wonder if he has just lost his damn mind. Scott tried leading a locker room mutiny against the media after their win against the Rams. Of course, this is because of the story that came out last week that un-named Jets players ripped Tebow for being terrible. Well guess what Bart, the players on your defense are the ones that are bringing unwanted attention to this team. Your media mutiny only made you guys look like bigger fools than you already were. The Jets have become a side show act. No one takes them seriously anymore.

Other Week 11 Notes
-If I am the Pittsburgh Steelers, I am very concerned about making the Playoffs. At 6-4 they stand in the final Wild Card position. But as they showed last night, it is going to be a struggle for them with all of these injuries catching up to them. Ben Roethlisberger just makes that team so much better. And now it looks like Byron Leftwich is down, meaning that Pittsburgh will have to turn to Charlie Batch at QB. Now they are bringing in WR Plaxico Burress because they are down at that position too. I wouldn't even worry about catching the Ravens, I would just be worried about holding on to the spot they have now. They go to Cleveland next week, a team that the Steelers struggle with at times. The game is always low scoring, and that is with Big Ben at QB. They then go to Baltimore and face another dog fight there. The Steelers need to find different ways to win these games coming up. If the Steelers lose the next two games, Big Ben will have a lot riding on his shoulders if he returns with four games left.

-Jason Garrett still needs to be worried about his job, even after yesterday's come from behind win against the Browns. Why should Garrett be worried? Because his team had to come from behind to beat the Browns. I've always thought Cleveland would be a team that will fight tooth and nail until the end of every game this year. That's their mentality. But the Cowboys have more talent and should have won that game without any problems at home. Then again, they are the Cowboys. A team that for some reason only likes to show up in the second half of each game. Add to the fact that Browns President Mike Holmgren was seen talking to Cowboys Owner Jerry Jones on the sidelines, and Garrett has even more to be worried about. A report came out that this weekend that Holmgren would only return to coach the Cowboys. Holmgren is stepping down as Browns President, Garrett is on the hot seat, this report comes out, and Holmgren is seen talking to Jones. Pieces keep falling into places.

-We are only heading into Week 12, but it looks like every division in the AFC is wrapped up. New England has a two game lead in the AFC East, but no other team has the talent in that division to catch them. The Texans have a three game lead in the AFC South and still play the Colts twice. They also hold wins over Denver and Baltimore, and still play New England. The Texans essentially control their own destiny for the #1 seed in the AFC. Denver holds a three game lead over the Chargers and have beaten them twice. No one is catching Denver there. And the Ravens hold a two game lead over Pittsburgh and just beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. What does this all mean? It means the question of resting players will come into effect pretty early for all of these teams. Now these four teams are looking to establish themselves and work out the final kinks they have before the Playoffs role around. All four of these teams have their own strengths and weakness, and they will look to fix those weaknesses with the Playoffs looming.

The HOT HOT HOT SEAT
-These Guys Should Just Start Packing Their Desks Already
1. Andy Reid, Philadelphia
2. Norv Turner, San Diego
3. Ron Rivera, Carolina
4. Romeo Crennel, Kansas City

-The I Wouldn't Buy A House Quite Yet In That Town Group
1. Jason Garrett, Dallas
2. Pat Shurmur, Cleveland
3. Ken Wisenhunt, Arizona

Random One Liners
-Why was everyone all hyped up about the Dolphins again?

-Why do the Steelers have so may awful uniforms?

-I bet Larry Fitzgerald regrets signing that contract extension now.

-If only Sam Bradford had some actual weapons to help him out on offense.

-Someone should give Mason Crosby the leg of the turkey for dinner.

-Maybe Jon Gruden will just leave the announce booth and start coaching the Eagles next week.

The FAB FIVE
1. Houston Texans
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. New England Patriots
5. San Francisco 49ers

The TURRIBLE FIVE
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Oakland Raiders
30. Carolina Panthers
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
32. Kansas City Chiefs

Three Games I'd Like To See Next Week
Green Bay at New York Giants: Did the bye week help the reeling Giants?
San Francisco vs New Orleans: Classic defense vs offense battle.
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay: Can Bucs keep up impressive run?

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 11 Picks

A bit of a down turn from previous weeks, but still respectable.

Last Week: 9-5
Year to Date: 94-51

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
The Bills last week showed how good they can be when the offense plays to its potential. They came very close to beating the Patriots last week in Foxboro, but a bad Ryan Fitzpatrick interception in the end zone ended those hopes. The defense all was run over again. When you score 31 points in the NFL, you expect to win the game. But the defense barely put any pressure on Tom Brady and could not cause any turnovers. Buffalo has an easy schedule coming up so there is still a glimmer of hope for the team. Even without Fred Jackson, the Bills should be okay with the electric C.J. Spiller in the backfield. He needs more touches and he will get them now. Miami was embarrassed last week at home and might have ended any hopes of a decent season happening this year. The offense looked terrible for the first time all season. And the defense was ran over by Chris Johnson. I don't know what changed for Miami, but things didn't look good. On a short week, I like the Bills here. Miami will still be reeling from their bad loss.

Buffalo 27  Miami 17

NFL Week 9 Picks

I showed some signs of improvement last week. Hopefully things get fully better this week.

Last Week: 9-5
Year to Date: 73-44

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers
Things just aren't right in San Diego. They put together a woeful performance last week against Cleveland. Philip Rivers had a terrible game, Ryan Matthews fumbled again, and the Chargers offense failed to put together a meaningful drive. Now there are people in San Diego questioning what has gone wrong with this  Chargers team the last few years. Norv Turner has had so much talent and has yet to put together a Super Bowl team in San Diego. The Chargers run defense faces another challenge this week in Jamaal Charles. Charles may be the only real threat that the Chiefs have on their team. They are forced to start Matt Cassel after Brady Quinn was hurt last year. At this point, the Chiefs may wish they had the QB situation Maryland has, starting a linebacker at QB. Kansas City had high hopes this year but the season may be one of their worst in recent memory. Kansas City may not win another game this year. Even with San Diego's recent struggles, they should still win here.

San Diego 21  Kansas City 13

NFL Week 6 Picks

Two good weeks in a row. Here's hoping for 3.

Last Week's Record: 10-4
Year to Date Record: 47-29

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans
The Steelers pulled out a much needed win last week at home against the Eagles. While the defense shut down Mike Vick, the offense had problems moving the ball. The Eagles defense has been playing better, but the Steelers should have been able to put up more points. Rashad Mendenhall looked good in his return and he added an added punch to the Steelers running game. The Steelers defense will once again be without Troy Polamalu. He re-injured his calf against the Eagles. Can he ever stay healthy? But that shouldn't be a concern for the Steelers. The Titans have looked absolutely dreadful the last couple of weeks. Matt Hasselbeck gets the call again this week. Expect the immobile veteran QB to face a heavy pass rush. And what the hell is wrong with Chris Johnson? Maybe getting paid is all he cares about now. Tennessee might keep it close early, but the Steelers will win this one handily in the end.

Pittsburgh 27  Tennessee 13

NFL Week 5 Picks

I did much better last week. Could a rebound be on the way? Lets hope so! Picks!

Last Week's Record: 11-4
Year To Date Record: 37-25

Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams
This has all the makings of a trap game for the Arizona Cardinals. On the road against a divisional opponent on a short week. For the Cardinals sake I hope it isn't. They escaped a bad loss last week and won in overtime against Miami. The Cardinals let a less than stellar offense stay in the game, and their secondary looked a bit shaky. Kevin Kolb remains the starter for the Cardinals, and I see no reason to change that even when John Skelton is fully healthy. Arizona may have found a permanent second WR with Andre Roberts playing well the last couple weeks. St. Louis defeated Seattle last week thanks to some good trickeration on special teams. Steven Jackson looks to be going on the downside of his career. He hasn't helped the offense like a star RB should, and it again is causing Sam Bradford problems with the lack of weapons he has. No run game allows teams to focus on stopping Bradford. I see the Rams keeping it close, but the Cardinals are on a hot streak now and I think they escape with a win here.

Arizona 28  St. Louis 24

NFL Week 1 Picks

Yes, its back. The NFL Season is finally here and with that it is the return of my picks! Nothing changes from last year. I will post my picks here with some analysis. I know I missed Thursdays game. I will try to tweet my pick for that game before hand so I have proof of it. Good thing I didn't do that this week. Hopefully I can get some of these games right.

Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears
Tough way for Andrew Luck to break into the league. Luck had a decent pre-season, but he is walking into a very tough match-up against the Chicago Bears and their defense. Luck can expect to face some heavy pressure from Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher. It will be tough for the Colts offense to get anything going either on the pass or on the ground. Jay Cutler, meanwhile, finally gets the #1 WR he has been so desperately missing since he has come to Chicago. Cutler and Brandon Marshall were very good together in Denver and Chicago is expecting the same thing from them. The Bears also have a great one-two punch in the backfield with Matt Forte and Michael Bush. The Bears can't afford any slip ups if they want to compete for the NFC North Title, and I think they win this one rather easily.

Chicago 31  Indianapolis 13

NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC North Edition

We are less than two months away from the start of the NFL season. Less than a month away from the start of training camp. The NFL season is slowly creeping up on us. Its my favorite sport, and now that I no longer have any type of schooling to go to, its my favorite time of year as well. Summer is fun, but fall means football, and you can't top that.

Much like I did with my off-season previews, I will break down each of my Season Previews into eight parts, looking at each division individually. I'm going to try and churn one of these out every week leading up to the start of the season. There shouldn't be any major roster moves between now and the start of the season. There will be the typical injury or two during the pre-season, but everything is set enough now that I feel confident starting these previews.

NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC North Edition

These are coming at a quicker pace with Free Agency coming soon. Today we look at the AFC North, which might have been the best division in all of football last year. They put three teams in the Playoffs last year. The Ravens and Steelers have been a model of consistency in recent years. They also have the best rivalry in all of football. Every time these two teams get together, you can expect a hard-hitting, smash mouth game of football. Both teams are getting up there in age, however, and may be on a slight decline. I still think both are Playoff teams, but they may not be as infallible as they once worth. The Bengals shocked everyone last year by finishing 10-6 and securing a Wild Card berth. They will only get better. And then there is the Cleveland Browns. Unless they trade up for Robert Griffin, they will be basement dwellers without a doubt. Hell, they probably will still be basement dwellers even with Griffin.

NFL Wild Card Round Preview

No Week 17 Review. Since I'm doing Playoff Previews as well as an off-season preview, I really don't find it necessary. Instead I'm going right into my Playoff Previews. Here are my records to end the year.

Head-to-Head Record: 165-91
Spread Record: 38-29-1

Almost every team in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs is heading into it with a big question mark attached to it. Two teams, Denver and Cincinnati, backed their way into the Playoffs and have pretty much no momentum going in. The Texans, a team I thought could get to the Super Bowl, sure haven't looked like that kind of team in the last month of the season. The NFC doesn't seem as wide open as the AFC, with the Saints and Packers looking like the heavy favorites. But lets not get ahead of ourselves, here we are only going to focus on the Wild Card round of the Playoffs. Lets go!

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans: Saturday 4:30 P.M. on NBC
As I just said above, neither of these teams are going into the Playoffs with a lot of momentum. The Bengals got into the Playoffs thanks to losses by Oakland and Denver. The Texans have lost three in a row and almost had to rely on Jake Delhomme in the Playoffs after T.J. Yates left last week's game. For the Texans, it is their first Playoff appearance in franchise history. They took advantage of a down year for the AFC South. The Jaguars were horrible, the Colts didn't have Peyton Manning, and it took the Titans half a season to finally get everything together. Had the Titans played better all year they probably would have won the division. The Bengals exceeded everyone's expectations this year by even getting to the Playoffs. I thought they were a Bottom 5 team this year. But Coach Marvin Lewis got rid of the distractions, mainly Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, and righted the ship to get his team here. Even if the Bengals didn't get to the Playoffs, 9-7 was still an accomplishment for them. These two team met in Week 14, with the Texans winning on a late TD to win 20-19. That was their last win. Lets look at 3 storylines headed into this game.

Can the Texans Go Far With T.J. Yates?
The Texans had high hopes going into the year, and rightfully so. With Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson leading the offense, many thought the Texans were Playoff bound for the first time ever. They still got there, but they took a different path. After Schaub got hurt in Week 10, Matt Leinart took over. Then Leinart got hurt and T.J. Yates took over. Yates struggled in the last month of the season to get any kind of offense going. Of course, Yates didn't have his star WR Andre Johnson at his disposal. But that is not an excuse for Yates poor play. Now Yates faces the high pressure of the Playoffs, and he is coming off taking a big hit last week against Tennessee. In his 5 regular season starts, Yates has only thrown 3 TDs to go along with 3 interceptions. Yates will need to step up his play in the Playoffs if the Texans have any hopes of advancing.

How Will the Bengals Rookies Handle Playoff Pressure?
If it wasn't for Cam Newton's all world year, Andy Dalton would be under consideration for Rookie of the Year. Dalton isn't putting up flashy stats, but he has been a great game manager for the Bengals. He doesn't wow you with his flashy skills, but he doesn't make mistakes that cost his team games. He also has WR A.J. Green to help him. Green is a big play threat that can change the game with one long catch. But we all know the Playoffs are a different type of season. While the Bengals finished 9-7, they only beat one team with a winning record, the Titans. They also lost to every AFC Playoff team besides the Patriots, who they didn't play. While the Texans have struggled recently, they are still a good all around team. The Bengals rookies have done well during the regular season, but can they keep it up in the post-season?

Which Defense Comes Out On Top?
I expect this game to be a bit on the low scoring side because both of these teams have solid defensive units. The Texans finished the year second in total defense, the Bengals finished seventh. Both teams are solid against the run, and each team finished in the Top 10 in the league in sacks. The Texans lagged a bit when Wade Phillips left the team, but they should have everything together now. The Bengals pass defense, however, has struggled since losing CB Leon Hall to injury earlier in the year. The Bengals will probably have to double cover Andre Johnson if they really want to shut him down.

PREDICTION
I expect this game to be very similar to these two's Week 14 meeting. A close, low scoring game throughout that will be decided in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. You know that the Texans will be motivated by their home crowd who will be pumped for their first Playoff appearance. If the Texans can get to Andy Dalton, I think they have a great shot at winning. The Bengals, meanwhile, will need to focus on shutting down Arian Foster and Ben Tate and make T.J. Yates beat them. Both teams struggled to end the season, but I think the Texans have more overall talent, and they win their first playoff game in franchise history. I think Andre Johnson is a big factor in this one and shows why, when healthy, he is a top WR in the NFL.

Houston 24  Cincinnati 19

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints: 8 P.M. on NBC
Well, the Lions have no one to blame for themselves for this match-up. All the Lions had to do was beat the Packers second stringers, but they couldn't even do that. In fact, they let back-up QB Matt Flynn thrown for 480 yards and 6 TDs, something that neither Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers ever did as a Packer. If the Lions defense couldn't stop Matt Flynn, how do they expect to stop Drew Brees? They couldn't stop Brees in their Week 13 match-up, which saw the Saints win 31-17. The Saints are rolling into the Playoffs. They have won eight in a row, and some would consider them a better all around team than the Packers. Drew Brees has been making his case for the MVP award. The Saints offense looks unstoppable, and I don't know if anyone can stop them. Questions Time!

Can Anyone Stop Drew Brees?
I kind of answered this in my game preview. The Lions couldn't stop Matt Flynn, what makes them think they can stop Brees? In their Week 13 meeting, Brees threw for 342 yards and 3 TDs. The Lions are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense, which is not a good sign for them. The Lions will need to pressure Brees if they want to stop him, but Brees is so good at getting the ball out quickly that even that makes it hard to stop him. And you can't sit back in coverage and give him time to find his secondary targets. Its tough stopping Brees, and I don't know if the Lions can do it.

Don't Forget That Lions Offense Though. But Can They Hang with the Saints?
While the Lions didn't play the best defense last week, the offense definitely showed up to play. Matthew Stafford threw for over 500 yards and the offense looked good again for the third week in a row. Stafford has been able to utilize all the weapons at his arsenal, similar to what Brees does in New Orleans. While Calvin Johnson is the star, he also gets taken out of the game at times due to double and even triple coverages. But Stafford uses his other options like Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew. He will need to use all of those guys to keep up with the Saints offense. Stafford threw for over 400 yards in their Week 13 match-up, but the team only scored 17 points. The Lions will need more than that to beat the Saints. They're capable of that on offense.

Can the Lions Avoid Dumb Penalties?
The Lions had a problem with penalties towards the end of the year. In their match-up with the Saints they had two 15 yard personal foul penalties. They have a tendency to lose their focus at times. If the Saints offense is having their way with the Lions defense, can they keep their composure long enough to stay in the game? Or will the Lions take dumb penalties and cause the game to get out of reach? You never know when Ndamukong Suh could snap again. The Lions can't let a couple early Saints touchdowns get them down and do stupid things.

PREDICTION
Unlike the Bengals/Texans game, I think this will be a very high scoring affair. The Saints defense is good, but they don't get to the QB often and don't force a lot of turnovers. The Lions can match the Saints with scores for a short time, but eventually they will need their defense to step up and stop Drew Brees. If the Lions front seven has the game of their life and pressures Brees, then the Lions might have a shot. But the Lions best defense might be their offense. If the Lions offense can keep the Saints offense off the field through good clock management, then the Lions will have a shot. But I don't think that will happen. The Saints are just playing so well right now that the Lions can't stop them. The Lions made the Playoffs like their as many expected, but they are a few pieces away on defense from being a Title contender. Saints win.

New Orleans 45  Detroit 34

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants: 1 P.M. on FOX
This is probably the toughest game of the weekend to predict. Both teams are evenly matched. The Giants won their "win and your in" game against the Cowboys Sunday night that got them here. The Giants have been inconsistent all year, but they have played well the last two weeks. The Falcons clobbered the Bucs in their finale and are probably sending the Packers Thank You baskets for beating the Lions. You know the Falcons didn't want to see the Saints again, two weeks after being clobbered by them. Both of these teams are very similar on offense which should lead to a great match-up. Neither team out matches the other greatly, so expect a close match up throughout. Question time? You bet!

Which Giants Team Shows Up?
As I said, the Giants have been a very up and down team this year. The Giants have beaten the Patriots on the road, a decent Jets team, and almost upset the Packers. But the Giants also lost to the Seahawks at home early in the season, and were swept by the Redskins. The Giants offense is usually never the problem, but the defense has had flashes of inconsistency all year. Injuries have been a big part of that, but the Giants are finally almost fully healthy heading into the Playoffs and that will be a big help, especially with the pass rush. But the Giants have looked impressive in their last two games, both wins against good teams. If that Giants team shows up Sunday, they will be tough to beat.

Can the Falcons Offense Keep Clicking?
Outside of their loss to New Orleans, the Falcons offense has been rolling in recent weeks. They totaled 31, 41, and 45 points. Now yes, those games were against Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay, but those are very impressive numbers on offense. With Julio Jones fully healthy, the Falcons have a very potent offense attack. Matt Ryan has lead the Falcons to their third straight Playoff appearance. He has one of the better receiving corps in the league with Roddy White and Julio Jones at WR, and Tony Gonzalez is possibly the best TE to ever play the game. He's also never won a Playoff game, and with his career running out of time, you know he is graving that first playoff win. Oh, and the Falcons also have Michael Turner at running back. You can't focus on one aspect of the Falcons offense because they are one of the most balanced offenses in the league.

Will No Dome Affect the Falcons?
I know lots of people don't like to say weather is a factor for teams that play in domes, but I think it could be here. Not only do the Falcons play in a dome, but they also played New Orleans twice, at Minnesota, and at Indianapolis. That's 12 games indoors. Two of their other games were against Carolina and Tampa Bay, very warm weather cities. The weather won't be bad in New York on Sunday, but it will be colder than normal. Being outdoors can change a team's gameplan and affect their play, but only if they let it happen.

PREDICTION
As I said, this is the toughest game of the weekend to predict. Both of these teams are evenly matched, especially on offense. I think I have to give the edge to the Falcons on offense. Their WRs are more explosive and Michael Turner is a better running back than Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Tony Gonzalez could be a huge factor in this game. The Giants don't have the greatest linebackers so they may have to bring a safety down to cover Gonzo. But that would leave one-on-one match-ups for Roddy White and Julio Jones. The key for the Giants will be their pass rush. If they can get to Matt Ryan then they will win this game. But with Osi Umienyora plagued by injury, it takes away a threat if he plays. This one is an honest coin flip for me. As much as I love the Falcons offense, they still haven't won a Playoff game with Matt Ryan. They lost last year as the #1 seed. The Giants have Playoff experience and know what to expect come Playoff time. I'm giving the Giants the edge here, but I'm not confident. But I would be saying the same thing if I was picking Atlanta. Giants win a nail biter.

NY Giants 28  Atlanta 27

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos: 4:30 P.M. on CBS
Remember that time when Tim Tebow was the darling of the NFL? Yeah, that seems like ancient history. The Broncos have lost three in a row and backed their way into the Playoffs thanks to a Raiders choke job at home against San Diego. Tebow has looked awful in his last two starts. You can't blame him for the loss to New England, it wasn't his fault the defense couldn't stop anything. The Broncos come into the Playoffs on a three game losing streak, but the Steelers come in banged up. Ben Roethlisberger is still nursing a high ankle sprain, and they just lost Rashard Mendenhall to a torn ACL. The Steelers have also struggled to score in recent weeks. What time is it? It's question time!!! (had to throw in a C.M. Punk reference)

Will TEBOWMANIA Meet Its Final Resting Place?
Broncos fans enjoyed the ride Tim Tebow gave him during his first seven starts, but you have to wonder if even they are starting to realize that he may not be the QB of the future in Denver. Tebow has looked horrible the last two weeks. Against a bad Buffalo defense in Week 16, Tebow threw 1 TD, ran for another, but also threw 3 interceptions and lost a fumble. Last week against Kansas City, he lead no TD drives and had 1 fumble and interception. Teams are finally catching on to Tebow. They're dropping everyone back in coverage, keeping their defensive lines in their running lanes, and making Tebow beat them with his arm. And trust me, I've seen Tebow throw in person, he's not going to beat you with his arm. The Steelers love to blitz the QB, but you have to wonder if they will just sit back in this game and let Tebow try to throw against them. I don't see how Tebow does that.

Can the Steelers Avoid Being One Dimensional?
In Week 17 the Steelers lost running back Rashard Mendenhall for the rest of the season to a torn ACL. Mendenhall wasn't a game changer, but he was clearly the best back on the Steelers roster. Now the Steelers will have to rely on Isaac Redman to carry the load for them, and he doesn't have a proven track record in the backfield. The Steelers have been a pass heavy team, and  you have to wonder if they might become a bit too pass heavy this week with Mendenhall out. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will stretch out the Broncos secondary, but if the Steelers can't run the ball then the Broncos will just drop their safeties back to prevent that. The Steelers will need to try and establish some sort of run game early on, because if they don't the Broncos can key on the pass and put pressure on Big Ben.

Will QB Pressure Be the Key to Victory?
I think this will be the key factor in determining the winner of this game. Each team has some of the best pass rushers in the NFL. The Broncos boast rookie Von Miller (11.5 sacks) and Elvis Dumervill (9.5). The Steelers bring James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, who each have nine sacks. If Miller and Dumervill can get to an immobile Ben Roethlisberger, then the Steelers offense might face some problems. Big Ben suffered a set back with his ankle injury last game, so it might be difficult for him to move around in the pocket. If the Steelers bring pressure, Tebow can escape the pocket and make some plays with his legs. That won't stop the Steelers from blitzing, but Tebow could burn them if they do it too much.

PREDICTION
This game has low scoring affair written all over it. And I mean really low scoring. The Broncos offense is having trouble doing anything of note. Their option style offense has been figured out. Tebow can't throw. Even with Ryan Clark out for Pittsburgh, it still doesn't mean Tebow can win this game in the air. The Steelers might not have much of a running game but they still have some threats at WR that can make a big play when needed. Big Ben is one tough son of a gun, and you know he will make a play or two that no other regular QB will make. He has the Playoff experience and doesn't have a problem winning on the road in January. The Steelers get a big TD pass from Mike Wallace, and that is the only TD of the game.

Pittsburgh 16  Denver 6

There's my Wild Card Preview. For those wondering, I'm still sticking with my pre-season Super Bowl prediction of the Ravens over the Packers in the Super Bowl. Divisional Round Preview same time next week.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 14 Picks

NFL Picks? Woo Woo Woo! You Know It!

Last Week's Record: 13-3
Year to Date Record: 125-67

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
This isn't too much of a rivalry in recent years. The Steelers have dominated the Browns. The Steelers continue to win while the Browns continue to float in mediocrity. Cleveland has definitely taken a step back this year. The distraction that Peyton Hillis has caused isn't helping matters. Colt McCoy has also regressed a bit, but it doesn' help when you have no real threats at WR. And the run defense is just getting gashed on a weekly basis. The most recent is Ray Rice's 200+ yard rushing performance last week. The Browns can't seem to find a winning way and stick to it. Pittsburgh continues their winning ways as they look destined for another playoff appearance. The Steelers have looked streaky at times this year. The offense has struggled in various games, but they had a good showing against Cincinnati last week. Their smash mouth football style helps them win in the winter months though, and that shouldn't be any different this week. Expect Pittsburgh to pound the ball with Rashard Mendenhall, which will open up the play action pass with Big Ben, Mike Wallace, and Antonio Brown. Steelers win rather easily.

Pittsburgh 24  Cleveland 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets
Congrats to Tyler Palko on winning his first game last week. Sure, it was against a depleted Bears team. And sure, Palko was pulled at one point in the game, but he still got the win. But the Chiefs still looked terrible on offense. There only TD came on a hail mary pass at the end of the first half. Otherwise, it is the same Chiefs teams that hadn't scored a TD in their last two games. The defense shut down the Bears, but it was a Bears team that didn't have their star QB or RB. The Jets pulled away late against Washington, but the offense struggled early on. Mark Sanchez again looked off on multiple throws. The defense was also burned by the run early on. This, however, should be a cake walk for the Jets as long as they are focused. The Chiefs have no weapons on offense and should struggle against a tough Jets pass rush.

NY Jets 27  Kansas City 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
This is the battle to not be considered the worst team in Florida. The Bucs are 4-8 and it looks like Raheem Morris is losing control of his players. The offense has looked stagnant and terrible continually. They were blown out by Carolina last week, which cements their status as the worst team in the NFC South. I would be surprised if Morris isn't fired at the end of the year. The Tampa job is semi-attractive, there is a lo of young talent on the team to build around. But they are in a tough division and need quick improvements if they want to compete in the coming years. The Jagaurs already fired their coach. And they still look terrible on offense. I know it is only his first year, but Blaine Gabbert is struggling mightily. With the success of Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, the pressure on him increases. But Gabbert can't handle pressure and often times makes bad decisions even without pressure. You have to feel bad for Maurice Jones-Drew. He's being a team player but you know the losing and struggles have to be eating at him on the inside. A new coach needs to decide if Gabbert has a future in the NFL, and also get some playmakers for him at the WR position. I've told you these teams suck already. So who wins? If you are one of these teams 25 fans and care, I'm picking Tampa. More talent.

Tampa Bay 23  Jacksonville 19

New England Patriots vs Washington Redskins
The Patriots are quietly putting together another typical Patriots season. Remember when we were questioning if this team was a legit playoff team? They still struggle a bit on defense and don't have too much of a running game, but they keep winning and that is all that matters in the end. But if Tom Brady keeps throwing to Rob Gronkowski at will, then this team will be tough to beat. Gronkowski is such a huge target and runs his routes so well that it makes him difficult to cover, especially in the red zone. You need a quick, physical safety to even just keep up with him. Even if Gronkowski gets shut down, you still have that pesky Wes Welker to deal with. The Redskins have given the Cowboys and Jets fights in recent weeks, but they can't find a way to close out games. The defense keeps the Redskins in it, but the offense fails to convert come late in the game. That is partly do to Rex Grossman's inability to perform in the clutch. The one bright spot for Washington has been Roy Helu, who had a good game against the Jets. Helu should have another good game against the soft Patriots defense, and Grossman should do ok as well. But the Patriots offense wins out here. Grossman and Co. can't keep up.

New England 31  Washington 20

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers
This has all the makings of a trap game for Atlanta. The Falcons offense struggled last week against the Texans. They only managed 10 points and couldn't get anything going, especially the run game. That should be different this week. Michael Turner should take advantage of a weak Panthers run game. Matt Ryan should also be able to burn the Panthers secondary with some deep plays. The Falcons have the talent to burn the Panthers that the Bucs don't have. The Falcons defense played well, but they will be without Corner Brett Grimes this week, which could hurt. The Panthers could struggle with their running attack here as the Falcons are pretty good at stopping it. Cam Newton might need to rely on his arm more here, and that should wake up the sleeping giant known as Steve Smith. You have to like all of the progress the Panthers are showing this year. They are a fun team to watch, and when they get healthy next year on defense, could be the Lions of this year's NFL. A young team that has the potential to make the playoffs. And that is why I'm picking the Panthers to get the upset win here.

Carolina 24  Atlanta 21

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens
It's a revenge game for Baltimore. Indy stole their franchise years ago and they want revenge! The Colts tried to make a comeback against New England last week but couldn't. But their offense woke up last week under Dan Orlovsky, which is a weird thing to say. Problem for Indy is that their defense is still terrible, and Ray Rice should expose that. He's coming off a 200 yard performance against Cleveland, and could easily top 200 yards again this week. Joe Flacco might have a good game too. Again, I don't see anyway the Colts compete here. The countdown to 0-16 continues. Baltimore wins.

Baltimore 35  Indianapolis 17

Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins
Both of these teams are 4-8, but they are heading in completely opposite directions. The Eagles appear to have already packed their bags in for the season. DeSean Jackson looks to have quite on the team. The players seem to have given up on Andy Reid. And the much hyped defense has been torn apart for most of the season. The Eagles will probably get Mike Vick back this week, but that won't so much for them. If the team isn't going to give their effort, then Vick's comeback means nothing. The Dolphins are 4-8 but have been playing some of the best football in the NFL the last 5 weeks. The Dolphins are making it mighty hard for ownership to fire coach Tony Sparano at the end of the year. For some reason, the Dolphins have decided to get going right now rather than the whole season. Nothing changed in Miami, other than the fact that they started trying after 0-7. Reggie Bush should take advantage of the weak Eagles linebackers. The Dolphins improved defense will pressure Mike Vick, and the Dolphins will continue to roll and make the Eagles Dream Season one to forget.

Miami 26  Philadelphia 20

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
Can the Lions stop shooting themselves in the foot? They continue to take dumb penalties and cost themselves games. They've gone 2-5 after starting 5-0. The offense hasn't been the problem for the most part. The defense for some reason cannot stop anything in recent weeks. The Lions have been plagued with injuries in the secondary. And they will be without Ndamukong Suh again for this game as he sits out his two game suspension. The good news for the Lions is that it looks like Adrian Peterson will also be out for the Vikings, so the Vikings offense looks a little less threatening. Christian Ponder made a terrible throw last week that lead to an interception and set-up the Broncos game winning field goal. The Vikings defense is also depleted with injuries in the secondary. Expect a big game from Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. The Lions should rebound here with a nice win against a down Vikings team.

Detroit 34  Minnesota 21

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans
The Titans are the least talked about team in the AFC Playoff Picture, but they may be the team no one wants to play in the Playoffs when it is all set and done. Chris Johnson has regained his 2011 form, and that is bad news for his opponents down the stretch. Johnson is hiding the ineffectiveness of Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck isn't playing bad, but he isn't doing enough to help get his team into the playoffs. The defense has been in shut down mode in recent weeks which also helps. But that defense faces a daunting task of trying to shut down the high powered Saints offense this week. But the Saints have struggled on the road this season. They are only 3-3 on the road, and there only double digit win came against lowly Jacksonville. But Drew Brees and the Saints offense should take the momentum they've had after winning two big games and carry it to the road. You know the Saints defense main task will be to shut down Chris Johnson and force Matt Hasselbeck to win the game for Tennessee. I expect a close one here, but in the end I have to go with the Saints and there array of weapons on offense.

New Orleans 28  Tennessee 23

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals
How can this game not sell out in Cincinnati? Bengals fans should be ashamed. Sure the Bengals have struggled recently, but they are still right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card Race. Plus, they are getting a wounded Houston team coming to town. With no Andre Johnson for Houston again, expect a heavy dose of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. But you know the Bengals will be expecting that, so expect a lot of eight man fronts from the defense. That means this game is on T.J. Yates shoulders. Yates performed all right last week against Atlanta, but he will need to do better in his first road start. The Bengals will also have a tough time against a very good Texans defense that shut down the Falcons last week. Andy Dalton will rely heavily on A.J. Green, but he will more than likely face constant double teams all day. This will definitely be a defensive battle, so expect a low scoring affair. If the Bengals are successful in shutting down the Texans run game, then I find it hard to believe T.J. Yates scan win the game for them. I'm giving a slight edge to the Bengals here, and think they pull out a mild upset at home.

Cincinnati 16  Houston 13

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos
This is a bad time for the Chicago Bears to come up against TEBOWMANIA. The Bears are down Jay Cutler for the rest of the season and Matt Forte for at least two weeks. And the offense looked terrible without both of them last week against Kansas City. The Bears only managed 3 points verses the lowly Kansas City Chiefs. Marion Barber becomes the feature back in Chicago, but he isn't an every down back. Caleb Hanie hasn't played well, and he doesn't have any weapons at WR that would scare the Broncos defense. If the Bears want to win this game, they will have to rely on their run defense to shut down the running game of the Broncos. The Vikings shut down Tim Tebow last week, but they failed to stop Willis McGahee, who ran for 111 yards and a touchdown. Tebow showed last week that he isn't afraid to throw the ball. It still isn't pretty, but he can avoid pressure and allow his WRs to scramble and get open. The Broncos defense isn't bad either, as they have defensive scores in their last two games. This one has low scoring, defensive struggle all over it. But it is too hard to bet against Tebow and the Broncos here, and they continue their winning ways.

Denver 17  Chicago 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers may have already wrapped up their division, but don't expect them to take their foot off the pedal quite yet. The 49ers still want that 1st round bye and still only have a one game lead over the Saints for that in the NFC. The defense looked dominant in their win over the Rams last week. Sure it was the Rams, but it still takes an all around team effort to shut out a team. If there is one person the 49ers may rest, it might be Frank Gore who has been a bit banged up all year. But Kendall Hunter is a good enough back to handle the work load for the 49ers the rest of the way. The Cardinals won again last week, this time in over time over the Dallas Cowboys. The Cardinals have been playing in recent weeks like I thought they would all year. Similar to the Dolphins, if the Cardinals played like this all year maybe they would be in the hunt for a playoff spot right now. The offense has looked better in recent weeks and the team's overall play is probably saving Ken Wisenhunt's job. This is a dangerous spot for the 49ers. Coming off a big game last week they may suffer a bit of a let down. The Cardinals are a dangerous team right now and I think they pull off the upset here at home.

Arizona 20  San Francisco 19

Buffalo Bills vs San Diego Chargers
These are two of the more disappointing teams this year for different reasons. First the Bills. They started the season 5-2 and appeared on the verge of making the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. But the Bills have lost five in a row. They have been decimated by injuries. Teams have also found out how to shut down the Bills spread offense. And the defense is still getting shredded. Expect defensive coordinator George Edwards gone at the end of the year. The Bills have a tendency to abandon the run like they did last week. They were only down seven at the half, but only ran the ball FOUR times in the second half. C.J. Spiller has shown promise in recent weeks, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has regressed. The Chargers, meanwhile, are the constant favorites in the AFC West. But after starting 4-1, the Chargers lost six in a row before winning last week in Jacksonville. Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers last week. The defense has struggled to stop anyone as well, which hasn't helped the Chargers offense. The Chargers don't consider them out of the AFC West race, especially with the tough schedule the Broncos and Raiders have ahead. Being two games out with four games left, the Chargers pretty much have to win out if they have a chance. They start here with a win over the Bills in a shootout.

San Diego 38  Buffalo 31

Oakland Raiders vs Green Bay Packers
Last week's performance is something the Raiders absolutely had to avoid. They were blown out on the road in Miami and gave up the lead in the AFC West via tiebreaker to the Broncos. Now the Raiders have to go into Lambeau and try to hand the Green Bay Packers their first loss. The Raiders running attack was finally stopped last week by the Dolphins. Don't expect it to get going again against the Packers. That means Carson Palmer will have to win this game with his arm. But Palmer isn't Aaron Rodgers. Despite the Packers shaky pass defense, Palmer isn't a good enough QB to win the game for the Raiders. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day taking advantage of a weak Raiders secondary. He makes playing QB so simple in the NFL. His 1 minute drive to get into field goal range last week at the end of regulation against the Giants was a thing of beauty. There is no reason to think that won't continue here. The Packers are the better overall team, and with the 49ers losing (in my opinion), they get one step closer to winning home field throughout the NFC Playoffs with another win here.

Green Bay 35  Oakland 23

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
Huge showdown in the NFC East. These two teams play each other twice in the final four weeks, so the loser isn't necessarily out of the NFC Playoff Race. Both teams are coming off of bad losses last week. The Giants stood toe-to-toe with the Packers last week, but the defense couldn't stop the Packers in the end to force overtime. The Giants are a better team with Ahmad Bradshaw in the backfield. That helps them mightily. Eli Manning is having a good season, but the problem is the defense has struggled to stop teams at times. That has been evident the last two weeks against the Saints and Packers. If the Giants front four on defense is silenced, it exposes holes in the secondary. The Cowboys lost to the Cardinals in Arizona after horrible clock management at the end of the 4th quarter. With two timeouts left, Tony Romo wasted about 20 seconds getting his team set up for a spike that brought the clock down to seven seconds left. Then, Coach Jason Garrett called a timeout before a made field goal by Dan Bailey. Bailey missed the next kick, and the Cowboys lost in overtime. Both of these teams will have their moments on offense and defense. I expect it to be close throughout. They key will be which ever team gets their run game going. That opens up the play action pass for both teams. I think in the end, I like the Cowboys here. I expect Jason Witten to have a big game here, just like the Jermichael Finley did last week for the Packers. A close one throughout that goes to the Cowboys, with a late field goal.

Dallas 27  NY Giants 24

St. Louis Rams vs Seattle Seahawks
I bet ESPN wishes they could flex games to Monday night. The second straight game between bad teams on Monday night. Even if ESPN was going off last year's successes of teams, they still should have thought that both of these teams could be awful this year. The Seahawks have played better in recent weeks. They throttled the Eagles last week. Marshawn Lynch has been in full beast mode the last month of the season. Expect another big game from him here against the Rams. The Rams are down to Tom Brandster at QB, which is all you need to know about their offensive struggles. Steven Jackson should have a decent game, but the Seahawks win here thanks to Lynch.

Seattle 28  St. Louis 10

My Vegas $$$ Picks
Last Week's Record: 3-1
Year to Date Record: 31-20-1

I hope no one tries a four team parlay with my bets, because I always get one wrong.

Seattle -5.5 vs St. Louis: Tom Brandster at QB for St. Louis, enough said.

Cleveland +14 at Pittsburgh: I'm still expecting a low scoring affair here.

Carolina +2.5 vs Atlanta: Panthers are a dangerous team.

NY Jets -9 vs Kansas City: Tyler Palko hasn't shown much in recent weeks.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 10 Review

A promising week of NFL action lead to a few good games as well as a couple of unexpected blowouts. I will preview the rest of the year and the playoff race at the end. No power rankings this week.

Team of the Week: Chicago Bears
-Talk about making a statement. The Bears beat Philadelphia last Monday night in Philly. This week? They man-handled the upstart Detroit Lions in Chicago. Chicago now controls their own destiny in the NFC Wild Card Race. They split with the Lions, which could help them in the long run. They also have the tiebreaker over Atlanta thanks to their Week 1 victory over them. Jay Cutler, when given time, can find his open WRs. And what else can you say about Devin Hester. If you punt that man the ball and your coverage team does not get downfield in time, he can make a big play. The defense also stepped up huge in shutting down the Lions offense. I think right now they make the playoffs as a Wild Card. They've won four straight and are playing some of the best football in the NFL right now.

Game of the Week: New Orleans 26  Atlanta 23
-Of course, the big story of this game is Mike Smith's decision to go for a 4th and an inch on his own 29 yard line in over time. Pretty much everyone is bashing Smith today, but I'm not. How much did they need for a 1st down? A chain length? If your team can't pick that up, then they don't deserve to win the football game. If anything, I had a problem with the offensive package they brought out, with all 11 players bunched up together. Spread it out a bit. Give the idea that hey, maybe we will throw a play action pass in here. But the Falcons pretty much sold run, and they ran, and the Saints got the better push up front and stopped Michael Turner. It was a good game throughout. The Falcons had a chance to win the game late in the 4th but Matt Ryan couldn't find any open WRs in the end zone, so they settled for a field goal. The Saints now control their own destiny in the NFC South.

Dog of the Week: Buffalo Bills
-Sorry boys, but you've disappointed your home town these last two weeks. Fans were ready to get over the Jets loss, but then you follow it up with an even worse loss to the Cowboys? That loss was worse than the two Super Bowl losses. The secondary was getting thrown on at will. I'm pretty sure I could have completed a couple passes against them. The secondary was suppose to be the strength of the defense. They can't get any pressure on the QB. And the offense has come to a complete stand still. The passing attack is getting shut down. Of course, when the defense puts you in a whole and can't get off the field, you have to throw to get back into the game. I thought this team was different from the 2008 team that started 5-1 and finished 7-9, but I don't know now. I don't even know if they can beat the Dolphins next week.

Other Week 10 Notes
-I almost gave the Dog of the Week award to Eagles WR DeSean Jackson. Jackson missed a team meeting on Saturday and was told to stay home Sunday as he was not going to be active for the game against Arizona. Jackson has been somewhat absent the last couple weeks from the Eagles offensive attack, so it wasn't too big of a loss. But it just adds to the joke that is the Eagles season. The team is now 3-6 and has pretty much no shot of making the playoffs. Some people are saying this may have to do with Jackson's on-going contract dispute with the Eagles, but I doubt the teams would go that far to have it affect their chance to win a football game. While Jackson has struggled in recent weeks, he is still a game changer with big play ability. The Eagles are a comedy of errors this year, and it may cost Andy Reid his job.

-Who is the best team in the AFC? It may just be the Houston Texans. Four straight wins headed into their bye next week. They've dominated every opponent they faced in that stretch too. They are clearly the class of the AFC South this year. They already beat their biggest competition, the Tennessee Titans, 41-7 in Week 7. And they are doing all of this without their best playmaker on offense, Andre Johnson. They have the number one rated defense in the NFL, without their best defensive playmaker Mario Williams. The Texans are 7-3 and currently the top seed in the AFC. But can they keep it up now with Matt Leinart at the helm? It's a good thing they have a two game lead on the Titans. Leinart is very unproven and never looked good anyways under center in Arizona. I still think the Texans win the division. But it gets tricky near the end. This is Matt Leinart's shot at redemption.

-Are the Denver Broncos about to revolutionize offense as we know it in the NFL? Tim Tebow threw eight passes against Kansas City, completing only two of them. But the Broncos still won 17-10 and are only a game out in the AFC West. The Broncos have brought the option offense into the NFL. Lots of teams think they are above that type of offense, but if it works with the personnel package you have, why not use it? Tebow is not going to win you games with his arm, so play to his strengths. Although I will admit, that TD pass to Eric Decker was a pretty good pass. I'm sure teams will begin to stack the box against Tebow, but it is tough to defend against the option if you don't have time to prepare for it. That's the problem the Jets might run into this week. They are down after a bad loss to the Patriots at home, and only have 3 days to prepare for the Broncos Thursday night. Denver has a legitimate shot at winning the AFC West.

-And just when you think the Patriots are down for the count, they get right back up and KO you with a surprise roundhouse. The Patriots knew it was a must win against the Jets, and they brought their A game on BOTH sides of the ball. I'm still not sold on their defense. Mark Sanchez didn't show up to play Sunday night. The defense was confused by the offensive looks of the Patriots. Tom Brady took advantage of the Jets safeties. The Jets now fall back down to earth, and as I said above, only have three days to prepare for Tim Tebow and the Broncos option offense. The Patriots have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. They play at Philadelphia, which doesn't look tough anymore, as well as at Denver and the Option and home to Buffalo. It's quite conceivable they could run the table and go 13-3, even with their terrible defense.

-So if Houston and New England are the favorites in their division, who is the favorite in the AFC North. Right now, I guess you have to say Pittsburgh again. But it almost changes by the hour. The Bengals were knocked down a peg after their home loss to Pittsburgh. The Ravens, who many people considered the favorite after beating the Steelers last week, lost on the road to Seattle. Next week's game between Cincinnati and Baltimore is big for both teams. The loser of that came falls to 6-4 and into a potential tie with the likes of the NY Jets, Buffalo Bills, and Tennessee Titans. The winner goes to 7-3 and has the inside track on the first Wild Card Spot, and if it is Baltimore that wins, they move back into first place in the AFC North. The Bengals lost Cornerback Leon Hall for the year with a torn ACL, which is a big blow to the defense. The Bengals have a tougher schedule with two games against Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, and Houston coming to town. The AFC Playoff race is a jumbled mess at this point.

Hey I'm Just Sayin...
-The 49ers Defense is good, but can their offense hang with the Packers?

-Do the Cardinals stick with John Skelton or go back to Kevin Kolb?

-Hey Mike Shanahan, any chance I could get a shot at playing QB?

-Will the Colts even come back to play after their bye week?

-Cam Newton, I just traded for you in my fantasy league. Don't falter now.

-Tony Sparano isn't coaching for his job. He's coaching to screw the next coach out of Andrew Luck.

The Head Coaching Hot Seat: The Top 5!
1. Tony Sparano, Miami: These last couple wins are nice, but I still don't think Sparano is around after this season. The fans want a big name in Miami. They can't sell out the stadium. Look for either Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, or maybe even Jeff Fisher.

2. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis: I know, Peyton Manning isn't playing. But if the Colts finish 0-16, you almost have to fire Caldwell. There is still talent on that team despite the injuries and loss of Manning. But Caldwell just can't seem to motivate that team and that may force a change in Indy.

3. Todd Haley, Kansas City: Haley is coming off a division title, but the honeymoon ended quickly after a bad start. Sure he lost Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, but there's no excuses for Matt Cassel's poor play the last two weeks, or all season for that matter. Look for a potential new coach/QB combo next year.

4. Andy Reid, Philadelphia: I still don't think Reid gets fired at the end of the year, but if he continues to lose to terrible teams, he may just get the ax. The Philly front office may feel the overwhelming pressure from fans and the team thinking that Reid has lost control of the team and can't manage all of the ego that he has.

5a. Ken Wisenhunt, Arizona: Wisenhunt got his QB this year in Kevin Kolb. He still has Beanie Wells at running back and Larry Fitzgerald at WR. But the Cardinals are struggling in a bad division and can't seem to fin any rhythm on offense. They pulled off a couple wins in a row, but that was without Kolb at QB. They blew a big lead against Baltimore and the NY Giants. Wisenhunt may need a big second half and signs of progress to save his job.

5b. Norv Turner, San Diego: It almost seems like Turner is on the hot seat every year. There is a lot of talent in San Diego, but they can never seem to put it together come playoff time. The Chargers are struggling more than ever this year. They are 4-5 in a down year for the AFC West. Philip Rivers is having an off year, and the defense is having problems stopping people, specifically through the air. This may be Turner's last chance to right the ship in San Diego.

Looking Into the Playoff Picture
With 7 weeks left in the NFL season, lets take a look at the playoff picture and where I think every team will finish. I will list the current standings, then underneath each team their remaining schedules. Black bold means a win, red means a loss.

AFC

1. Houston Texans: 7-3

Bye, at Jacksonville, vs Atlanta, at Cincinnati, vs Carolina, at Indianapolis, vs Tennessee

Final Record, 11-5: There are some tough match-ups for the Texans left, especially the back to back games against Atlanta and Cincinnati. And now with Matt Schaub out, those match-ups look even tougher. I thought the Texans had a chance to win out, but not with Matt Leinart at QB. The Texans will still win the division because they have more talent than anyone else in the AFC South, but they will now lose a few games.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-3

Bye, at Kansas City, vs Cincinnati, vs Cleveland, at San Francisco, vs St. Louis, at Cleveland

Final Record, 12-4: The Steelers benefit from playing the lowly Cleveland Browns twice in there last 6 games, as well as having the Rams come into town late in the year. Right now the Steelers are playing at Kansas City Sunday night, but I think that might be flexed out of prime time. Monday night against San Fran will be tough, especially if the 49ers are still fighting for home field.

3. New England Patriots: 6-3

vs Kansas City, at Philadelphia, vs Indianapolis, at Washington, at Denver, vs Miami, vs Buffalo

Final Record, 12-4: As I said, I think the Patriots have a really easy schedule from here on out. I gave them a loss in Philadelphia because I don't think they match up well against Philly. Now I'm sure Philly will find a way to lose that game, but I like the match-up in their favor. I was also tempted with the Denver game to give the Pats a loss, but I think Bellicheck will find a way to keep Tebow in check.

4. Oakland Raiders: 5-4

at Minnesota, vs Chicago, at Miami, at Green Bay, vs Detroit, at Kansas City, vs San Diego

Final Record, 9-7: I was thinking of looking at the whole AFC West, but I'm pretty sure this record will be good enough to win the AFC West. The Chiefs might not win another game, Denver has a brutal schedule ahead, and I think teams will figure out how to stop the option sooner rather than later, and San Diego will lose at least three more games. So I'm giving this to Oakland almost by default. I don't know if they can't beat Baltimore, or even the Jets for a second time, but being in the Black Hole will help.

5. Baltimore Ravens: 6-3

vs Cincinnati, vs San Francisco, at Cleveland, vs Indianapolis, at San Diego, vs Cleveland, at Cincinnati

Final Record, 11-5: Baltimore is really tough to predict. You think they would beat Cleveland both times, but they might lose one of them. Could they actually struggle against Indianapolis? I think the Ravens are a veteran enough team to win late down the stretch. They need to get Joe Flacco right or else they won't have any kind of chance to win a playoff game. The Ravens are my Super Bowl pick from the AFC, and I'm still sticking by them.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: 6-3

at Baltimore, vs Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, vs Houston, at St. Louis, vs Arizona, vs Baltimore

Final Record, 9-7: The loss of CB Leon Hall is going to hurt this team, no questions asked. He is their top corner and a cornerstone of the defense. The Bengals showed they can hang with the big boys against Pittsburgh, but I don't know if they can do it for the long haul. Pittsburgh and Houston back-to-back is tough, and going to St. Louis late has all the signs of a trap game. The Bengals were a nice early story, but I think they falter down the stretch.

7. NY Jets: 5-4

at Denver, vs Buffalo, at Washington, vs Kansas City, at Philadelphia, vs NY Giants, at Miami

Final Record, 10-6: This coming week against Denver is a big game. Can the Jets solve the option offense in time? After that, they already proved they are better than the Bills. Washington and Kansas City have no offense to speak of. I think going to Philly makes it tougher for the Jets, as they struggle on the road. The Giants have enough weapons to expose the defense. But I think in the end, the Jets get in because they will have the tiebreaker over the Bills.

8. Buffalo Bills: 5-4

at Miami, at NY Jets, vs Tennessee, at San Diego, vs Miami, vs Denver, at New England

Final Record, 10-6: If the Bills don't beat Miami this week, then they may lose out. This team has taken a few knockout blows in the last couple weeks, so they need this one bad. The Bills should win their last 3 home games. They can beat San Diego on the road. It may come down to the last week against San Diego, and even if the Pats have a seed wrapped, you don't think they still have revenge on their mind against Buffalo. The Bills just miss out.

9. Tennessee Titans: 5-4

at Atlanta, vs Tampa Bay, at Buffalo, vs New Orleans, at Indianapolis, vs Jacksonville, at Houston

Final Record, 8-8: The Titans have a brutal schedule late. They did a good job of shutting down Cam Newton, but the Falcons and Saints offenses are a different story. Houston already wiped the floor with Tennessee in Tennessee, no reason they couldn't do it again in Houston. The Titans will probably win the games they are suppose to win, but lose the ones they are suppose to lose.

FINAL AFC STANDINGS

1. Pittsburgh Steelers  12-4

2. New England Patriots  12-4

3. Houston Texans  11-5

4. Oakland Raiders  9-7

5. Baltimore Ravens  11-5

6. New York Jets  10-6

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7. Buffalo Bills  10-6

8. Cincinnati Bengals  9-7

9. Tennessee Titans  8-8

NFC Playoff Picture

1. Green Bay Packers: 9-0

vs Tampa Bay, at Detroit, at NY Giants, vs Oakland, at Kansas City, vs Chicago, vs Detroit

Final Record, 15-1: I really thought about giving the Packers a perfect record. Three weeks ago I would have thought they lose at Detroit on Thansgiving, but I don't think that happens anymore. I think the Giants pass rush will do just enough to disrupt Aaron Rodgers and not allow him to throw at will on the Giants secondary. The Packers are a great offensive teams with defensive flaws in their secondary which might be a problem come January.

2. San Francisco 49ers: 8-1

vs Arizona, at Baltimore, vs St. Louis, at Arizona, vs Pittsburgh, at Seattle, at St. Louis

Final Record, 15-1: The 49ers must love the fact that 5 of their last 7 games are against divisional opponents. They face the AFC North's two best teams, but they can beat both of them. Baltimore is very up and down, and they get Pittsburgh at home which will be a plus. I think the 49ers win out. Their defense is that good. This is why I wanted Jim Harbaugh in Buffalo. He took pretty much the same group of guys from last year's team, adopted to their strengths, and got them playing winning football. And in this scenario, the 49ers would get home field in the NFC due to a better record in common games compared to Green Bay. San Fran beat the Giants, Green Bay wouldn't in my scenario.

3. New Orleans Saints: 7-3

Bye, vs NY Giants, vs Detroit, at Tennessee, at Minnesota, vs Atlanta, vs Carolina

Final Record, 13-3: Another win out scenario. These aren't the same Saints of old. They can be beat, but I don't see it. It helps to have two weeks to prepare for the Giants. Detroit looks like they could be on a downfall, and having Atlanta again in the Superdome helps. There is a blue print to stop the Saints offense, but I don't know if any of these teams have the personnel to stop it. I think the Giants do, but the Saints have two weeks to prepare for the Giants which is a big help for them.

4. New York Giants: 6-3

vs Philadelphia, at New Orleans, vs Green Bay, at Dallas, vs Washington, at NY Jets, vs Dallas

Final Record, 11-5: The Giants have a brutal end schedule, but they should still win the division. They get a wounded Philadelphia team next week at home. New Orleans and Green Bay back to back is tough, and if they can get a split there that would be great. I think they split with Dallas because the Cowboys are good enough to win at least one game. But the Giants still win the division in the end.

5. Detroit Lions: 6-3

vs Carolina, vs Green Bay, at New Orleans, vs Minnesota, at Oakland, vs San Diego, at Green Bay

Final Record, 10-6: The Lions started off hot and were the darlings of the NFC. But they slowed down recently and have a rough end schedule to take care of. They have a back-to-back slate against New Orleans and Green Bay as well. The final game at Green Bay could be the deciding game, and I expect the Packers to still be fighting for home field in Week 17. The Lions were a good story at first, but they've been exposed as of late, especially for their lack of a running game with Jahvid Best out.

6. Chicago Bears: 6-3

vs San Diego, at Oakland, vs Kansas City, at Denver, vs Seattle, at Green Bay, at Minnesota

Final Record, 11-5: I think the Bears have finally turned the corner, but I think they lose one of those weird games like they have a tendency to do at times. I picked the Denver game because it seems like the best spot to do so. The Bears are playing some good football and I don't see how they miss the playoffs with this schedule, especially with the AFC West four weeks in a row. But Mike Martz has finally found a way to mold an offense around Jay Cutler, and with Matt Forte in the back field and the always dangerous Devin Hester, this team could be a threat in January.

7. Dallas Cowboys: 5-4

at Washington, vs Miami, at Arizona, vs NY Giants, at Tampa Bay, vs Philadelphia, at NY Giants

Final Record, 11-5: Another team that benefits from a lackluster end of the season schedule. There would really be no excuses for the Cowboys to lose the next few games. All of them are games they should win. The Giants game at home will be a big one. If they don't win that one, then they might as well kiss a chance at the division good bye. That Tampa Bay game may be a tricky one if the Bucs could ever get their stuff together and show the promise they had last year. I think the Cowboys finish strong though and find a way to get into the playoffs.

8. Atlanta Falcons: 5-4

vs Tennessee, vs Minnesota, at Houston, at Carolina, vs Jacksonville, at New Orleans, vs Tampa Bay

Final Record, 10-6: Despite getting shut down Sunday by Tennessee, I've maintained all along that the Panthers could play spoiler the rest of the year. I think they have a good shot of doing it here. They hung with the Falcons for the most part in Atlanta, and I think they win in Carolina. The home loss to New Orleans may hurt, but like I said above I defend Mike Smith's decision. If your offense can't get a quarter of a yard, you don't deserve to win that football game. But unfortunately, that decision keeps the Falcons out of the playoffs.

FINAL NFC STANDINGS

1. San Francisco 49ers  15-1

2. Green Bay Packers  15-1

3. New Orleans Saints  13-3

4. New York Giants  11-5

5. Dallas Cowboys  11-5

6. Chicago Bears  11-5

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7. Atlanta Falcons  10-6

8. Detroit Lions  10-6

Three Games I'd Like To See Next Week

NY Jets vs Denver Broncos: Can the Jets shut down the Broncos Option Offense?

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens: Which Ravens team will show up, and can the Bengals rebound?

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons: Two teams fighting for their playoff lives.

Until Next Time,

Justin C

Follow Me on Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 10 Picks

All 32 teams are playing this week. Plus we have our first Thursday night game of the year. Another solid set of games as well. Lets get to it.

Last Week's Record: 8-6
Year to Date Record: 84-46

Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers
Two teams on big slides here. Ever since the Raiders lost Jason Campbell they've been on a slide. The Raiders have lost two games in a row since losing him, both to AFC West opponents. The Raiders swept the AFC West last year but haven't won a single game in it this year. And now, people are starting to question if the power Hue Jackson has received since the passing of former owner Al Davis has gone to his head. Jackson pretty much benched WR Darieus Heyward-Bay and TE Kevin Boss last week. Jackson said the offensive packages but in place for the game didn't fit their strengths. Yeah sure. Plus Carson Palmer didn't look to great in his debut. The Chargers have lost 3 games in a row and there appears to be something getting to Philip Rivers. He's having one of the worst years of his career and it's affecting the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers actually had a chance to beat the Packers last week if it wasn't for Rivers two pick-6's. Both of these teams need this game. I think the loss of Darren McFadden for another week hurts the Raiders more than they think, and there is too much questioning of Hue Jackson going on. Chargers win a close one.

San Diego 26  Oakland 24

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles
This was suppose to be Kevin Kolb's big return to Philadelphia. But Kolb is unlikely to play due to a foot injury. The Cardinals won their first game since Week 1 last week against St. Louis thanks to an amazing Patrick Peterson 99 yard punt return for a touchdown in overtime. But the Cardinals still looked bad offensively with John Skeleton at QB. Philadelphia was upset by the Chicago Bears at home on Monday night football. That loss put the Eagles at 3-5 and all but shut the door on their playoff chances. It's going to take at least 10 wins to get into the playoffs in the NFC, and I don't know if this Eagles team can win 7 of their last 8. They have all the talent in the world but can't seem to mesh together as a team. But they start a potential comeback with a win here. Mike Vick should tear a poor Cardinals secondary to shreds and the Eagles defense will double Larry Fitzgerald and pressure John Skeleton all day long.

Philadelphia 31  Arizona 13

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers
Tennessee just can't seem to put everything together for an extended period of time. They beat Baltimore at home in Week 2, but they haven't beaten any other team that is better than them this year. They are the classic definition of a mediocre team. They beat the bad teams but can't beat the good teams. And of course, Chris Johnson is playing terrible. Johnson had his first decent game last week, getting over 100 yards from scrimmage in defeat. It's sad that that is considered good now for Johnson. The guy used to run for over 100 yards a game on a regular basis. The Titans pass defense got beaten badly by Andy Dalton last week, giving up 3 touchdowns to 3 different WRs. That's bad news heading into this week's match-up with the Carolina Panthers. Cam Newton spreads the ball around a lot. Plus he runs the ball a lot. Newton should be able to find open WRs all day. The Panthers are my pick for "Late Season Spoilers" in the NFL. They could be the team that squashes playoff hopefuls chances in the second half. Their offense is legit and their defense can hang with offenses. It won't shut teams down but it can limit them. The Panthers win here with Cam Newton running wild on the Titans defense.

Carolina 34  Tennessee 27

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Texans seem to be coming together. After losing two in a row, they've reeled off 3 straight wins. The offense is still going even without star WR Andre Johnson. And that's because of their new two-headed monster at RB in Adrian Foster and Ben Tate. It's a smart move by Texans Coach Gary Kubiak. Foster has been a bit injury prone in his short career, and having Tate help share the work load will keep Foster healthy and limit his touches heading into the playoffs. And trust me, the Texans will make the playoffs. There is no one else in the division that is better than them. The defense is a bit shaky and it may hurt them come playoff time, but no one can compete with the Texans in the AFC South. The Buccaneers have struggled a bit this year after high expectations coming into the season. The young Tampa team is 4-4 and not playing as well as they did last year during their 10-6 season. Josh Freeman isn't playing as well, and Mike Williams has hit a wall. The defense took a big hit losing DT Gerald McCoy for the year. They signed Albert Haynesworth, but you have to question if he has anything left after being cut by New England. I don't think Tampa has the same magic that they had last year. Houston wins here because of their offense.

Houston 27  Tampa Bay 21

Washington Redskins vs Miami Dolphins
It seems that these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Dolphins have played hard the last few weeks and it finally paid off with a big win against Kansas City last week. They shut down a red hot Chiefs team. Reggie Bush has looked really good, and Matt Moore looked competent under center last week. Plus the defense came alive and pressured Matt Cassel into bad decisions. The Redskins, meanwhile, have looked terrible offensively since handing the reigns to Jon Beck. They've scored a combined 44 points in the last 4 weeks, including getting shut out by Buffalo. The only bright spot has been youngster Roy Helu who played well last week against San Francisco. You have to wonder if the Redskins will even win another game this year because they are so bad on offense. You know both of these teams want Andrew Luck, especially Mike Shanahan. Maybe they will just take knees and intentional safeties all game? Who knows. But the Dolphins are playing the better football of the two, and they win their second in a row here.

Miami 20  Washington 12

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
If the Colts have a chance to win a game this year, this game is it. The Colts have looked downright dreadful the last 3 weeks. Before the New Orleans blowout games were at least being kept close. Now it doesn't even look like the Colts care anymore. But if they have any pride, they should be able to compete here. Jacksonville's defense has improved in recent weeks so the Colts might have some difficulty moving the ball. While Jacksonville's defense has improved, their offense is still stuck in neutral. Blaine Gabbert still hasn't improved too much since becoming the starting QB. The offense still hasn't scored more than 20 points with Gabbert under center. Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to run free here against a shabby Colts defense. While many think the Colts have packed it in, I like their chances to win here before the bye week.

Indianapolis 21  Jacksonville 19

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Don't look now, but Tim Tebow has the Broncos one game out of first place in the AFC West. Tebow again didn't have great stats or look good against Oakland, but he did enough to get the job done against the Raiders. Now Tebow faces another road test against the Kansas City Chiefs, who were just picked apart by Matt Moore and the Dolphins. The good news for Tim Tebow is that Willis McGahee looked really good in his return from his hand injury, running for 163 yards and two scores. The defense also picked off Carson Palmer three times, an improvement after getting torn up by Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions a week earlier. The Chiefs were embarrassed at home by Miami after a big win the week before on Monday night against San Diego. The Chiefs were lucky to win that game, and they couldn't carry the momentum over to the next week. Poor Todd Haley had to shave his beard off, and now he has to get this Chiefs team refocused for this big division showdown. The Chiefs have a BRUTAL five game schedule after this: at New England on Monday night, home to Pittsburgh on Sunday night (although this could be flexed), at Chicago, at NY Jets, home to Green Bay. They need this one bad, but they don't get it. The Broncos keep winning, and the media keeps praising Tim Tebow.

Denver 30  Kansas City 23

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys
The Bills received a big butt kicking last week at the hands of the NY Jets. They were out matched in every aspect of the game last week against the NY Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick made some bad throws, the offense couldn't get going, and the defense couldn't get off the field. The Bills are still a good football team, but these next two weeks will show just how far they have come this year. The Bills next three games are all on the road, where they have struggled this year and are only 1-2. But Ryan Fitzpatrick should find more openings against Dallas. The Cowboys don't have the same personnel the Jets do to stop the Bills offense. The Cowboys are coming off another one of those games where they beat a weaker team, this time Seattle, and face a good team the next week in the Bills. After the Cowboys beat the Rams easily, they were then demolished by the Eagles. After they beat the Redskins they blew a big lead late against Detroit. Tony Romo will be without Miles Austin for the next few weeks, but Romo should focus on handing the ball off to DeMarco Murray here and looking for Jason Witten, as the Bills have struggled to stop the run and tight ends in coverage. This one is close to the end, but I'm still not sold on the Cowboys. The Bills rebound after last week's ugly loss.

Buffalo 28  Dallas 27

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
This should be a good game. The winner takes the lead in the race to win the NFC South. The Saints have struggled a bit in recent weeks. Take away the Colts blowout, and all of their recent games have been close. They were beaten rather easily by the Rams, which is a bad thing. Tampa Bay kept last week's game close throughout and Tampa also beat the Bucs in Tampa a few weeks ago. Drew Brees still has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but he's been struggling a bit. The Falcons, meanwhile, have won three straight heading into this match-up. Rookie WR Julio Jones returned from injury last week and finally scored his first two touchdowns of his career in a breakout game for him. Jones give QB Matt Ryan another weapon to look for in his arsenal. The defense is also playing much better. I thought the Falcons were going to struggle after a poor start, but they rebounded nicely and seem to be back to last season's form. The Falcons are playing really good football, the Saints are not. Give me the Falcons here.

Atlanta 31  New Orleans 21

St. Louis Rams vs Cleveland Browns
The Rams looked brutal again last week against Arizona after lighting up the Saints the week before. Sam Bradford threw for a lot of yards, but couldn't get his team in the end zone. The Rams continue to disappoint this year after having high expectations. Injuries have been a major reason, as well as a brutal early schedule. Expect a heavy dose of Steven Jackson here, as the Browns have one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Browns are also disappointing on offense. The "Madden Curse" has taken down Peyton Hillis, and he's become a bigger distraction then he needs to be with his contract situation. Colt McCoy isn't playing well either. This could be an ugly game. I think the Rams have more talent, so I'm picking them to win.

St. Louis 17  Cleveland 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Well, time to find out what these Bengals are really made of. Their first division test against the main stays at the top of it. The Bengals just won't go away. They beat the Titans last week to improve to 6-2 overall and a tie for first atop the AFC North. Andy Dalton isn't playing like a rookie. If it wasn't for Cam Newton, he would be the Rookie of the Year in the NFL hands down. And the defense is playing great football as well. They haven't allowed more than 24 points all year in a game, which is outstanding considering some of the high scores we've seen in the league so far this year. The Steelers are coming off a disappointing home loss to Baltimore which saw them blow a lead with less than 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You have to think that this will motivate the Steelers a bit here. Ben Roethlisberger, no matter who he plays, has found his WRs with ease and that should continue here. There are just too many weapons at Pittsburgh's disposal for Cincinnati to stop, so I'm taking the Steelers here. The Bengals downfall begins.

Pittsburgh 27  Cincinnati 20

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks
Just when you think the Ravens are falling apart, they rebound and beat the Steelers for the second time this year. You have to now consider them the favorites in the AFC North, especially since they have the tiebreaker over the Steelers. Joe Flacco looked terrible for two weeks, then he lead a game winning drive to win the game against Pittsburgh. Ray Rice should still be the focal point of the offense, but if Flacco continues to improve the Ravens may become the favorites in the AFC again. Seattle has pretty much lost all of their home field advantage with their terrible play this year. They have no NFL QB on their roster. No WRs, and the defense can't stop the pass. This should be an easy one for Baltimore, even though they struggled against Jacksonville and Arizona. But the Ravens have turned a corner starting with last week's win.

Baltimore 38  Seattle 21

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers
The Giants started the rough stretch of their schedule exactly how they needed to, with a win at New England. Eli Manning lead another late comeback and the Giants continued to maintain a two game lead in the NFC East. The defense pressured Tom Brady and there's no reason to think they can't do the same against Alex Smith. The Giants also beat the Patriots without RB Ahmad Bradshaw and WR Hakeem Nicks. Both of those men may be out again this week, and they may actually hurt the Giants because the 49ers have a much better defense than the Patriots do. San Francisco has matched every challenge thrown at them this year, with their only loss coming in overtime to Dallas. The 49ers are for real, and not just a by-product of the terrible NFC West. Jim Harbaugh has lit a fire under these players and they seem to be taking to his coaching style. But Frank Gore has been limited in practice all week with an ankle injury. If he doesn't play because that hurts the 49ers, because then the Giants can focus even more on shutting down Alex Smith. I really like how the Giants have come together and think they pull off another big win on the road here.

NY Giants 24  San Francisco 20

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
Just when you think the Bears are done, they come back and win a big game in Philadelphia. The Bears are playing some good football in recent weeks. They've won 3 in a row since losing to Detroit in Detroit on Monday Night Football. The offensive line has done a better job of protecting Jay Cutler in recent weeks, and the team continues to rely on Matt Forte who leads all NFL players in yards from scrimmage. I didn't think the Bears would be good at all this year, but they are quickly proving me wrong. The Lions had a bye week to rest up and prepare for this big game. They dismantled the Broncos the week before their bye, which is something they needed after losing two straight home games. Matthew Stafford continues to rely on Calvin Johnson the most, but he has also spread the ball out more to some of his targets. The Lions defense, specifically their pass rush, is also improved. This game is a real toss up to me. The Bears are riding the momentum of their huge win in Philly, but the Lions have had two weeks to prepare for this one. I think the Lions are the better team, but the Bears win here because they have played the better football in the last month.

Chicago 23  Detroit 20

New England Patriots vs New York Jets
How the tides have turned since these teams last match-up. The Jets had lost two in a row while the Patriots were 3-1. Now, the Jets are on a three game winning streak and the Patriots have lost two in a row. This is not the same Patriots team we have seen in recent years. Sure, they still have Tom Brady and Bill Bellicheck, but the defense is nothing like it was during the Championship years. They can't stop anything in the secondary at all. The organization has missed on several of their defensive draft picks in recent years. Tom Brady can't do everything for this team. Lots of people know that the offense is now one dimensional. Defenses don't need to worry about stopping the run game because they don't have won. You can't win games in January with no running game. The Jets have rediscovered their run game in recent weeks and that has helped ease the pressure on Mark Sanchez. Sanchez has played better in recent weeks and so have his WRs, specifically Plaxico Burress. This has helped ease the pressure on their defense. The defense didn't have to worry about staying on the field long against the Bills as the offense was able to continue drives and not go with quick 3-and-outs. It's rare that the Patriots lose three games in a row, but I think it happens here. The Jets are the better team and the Patriots are struggling. Hell, they may MISS the playoffs.

NY Jets 31  New England 28

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
The Vikings have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Christian Ponder had one week last time and almost beat the Packers. Of course that was at home. This one is in Lambeau, on Monday night. Aaron Rodgers is throwing touchdown passes at will and is easily the favorite for MVP. Rodgers just has so many weapons at his disposal and defenses have a hard time focusing on just one to stop. Teams can beat Green Bay if they have a good secondary and pass rush, which is something the Vikings do not have. They also need to have an offense that can put up points in bunches, which is again something the Vikings don't have. Adrian Peterson will score a couple touchdowns, but this one is all Packers.

Green Bay 42  Minnesota 23

My Vegas $$$ Picks
Last Week's Record: 3-1
Year to Date Record: 22-13-1

Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas: Cowboys aren't that good, Bills aren't that bad.

Green Bay -13.5 vs Minnesota: Packers are two TDs better than Minnesota, especially at home.

Carolina -3.5 vs Tennessee: Titans offense can't hang with Panthers.

Indianapolis +3 vs Jacksonville: If the Colts don't win this week, then they might not at all.

That's it from me today.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka