Justin's Take: NFL Playoff and Off-Seaon Look Ahead

Hello Everyone. Instead of reviewing Week 17 like I would normally do here, I'm going to take a look ahead to the NFL Playoffs and Off-Season in this week's post. Not much to review about Week 17 without talking about both of those topics. Right now everyone is talking about the Playoffs and Coaching Moves, so why not talk about it here?

Ranking the Playoff Teams
12. Indianapolis Colts
-The Colts have been a great story all year. If you picked them to finish 11-5, then you are either a die hard Colts fan or have some psychic ability. They played well despite Coach Chuck Pagano leaving due to leukemia. Pagano is back, and you know the Colts will go all out for him. But the Colts defense scares me, especially their run defense. I think Ray Rice has a big game against them. Indy has been a good story but they are a long shot to win it all.

JC's Take: Stars, Goats & Notes From Week 15 of the NFL

Game of the Week: San Francisco 41  New England 31
-This game was nowhere close to being the game of the week. At one point, the 49ers were up 31-3 on the Pats in the cold and rain in Foxboro. But, you can never let Tom Brady and Co. back into the game. New England came roaring back and tied the game in the 4th quarter. But the 49ers answered with a good kickoff return and a TD less than a minute later. Bill Bellicheck then decided to go for it on 4th and 3 inside their own 30 late, and they failed yet again on Sunday night. It was a gutsy move, but it shows you don't trust your defense to stop the 49ers. Colin Kapernick continues to play well and has brought new life into this 49ers team. They are more dangerous with him under center. The 49ers are still my pick in the NFC to reach the Super Bowl.

JC's Take: Stars, Goats and Notes from Week 11 of the NFL

Team of the Week: San Francisco 49ers
-In the battle of back-up QBs, Colin Kapernick won. And he may have just created a QB controversy in San Francisco. The 49ers dominated the entire football game Monday night. Not only that, but they had continued success driving down the field against a very good Bears defense. The 49ers defense got to Jason Campbell, causing six sacks and two interceptions. San Francisco imposed their will on both sides of the ball and finally looked like the team I picked to go to the Super Bowl at the start of the year. You have to wonder if Jim Harbaugh goes back to Alex Smith or rides the hot hand with Kapernick next week. Great performance by the 49ers.

Game of the Week: Houston 43  Jacksonville 37 (OT)
-Thank You Andre Johnson. Thank You Matt Schaub. In my picks blog this week, I said that if Jacksonville won, I would write a 10,000 word blog talking about the Jaguars victory. I wasn't kidding. I was getting ready to start working on that today. But the Texans offense saved my ass and came up with a big play in over time to secure the Texans a late victory. When Blaine Gabbert left the game in the first quarter, Chad Henne took command and the Jaguars looked like a completely different team with him under center. You have to wonder why Henne hasn't been starting earlier. I know they wanted to develop Gabbert, but it was evident after five games this year that he wasn't the answer. For the Texans, this game exposed some holes they have and need to be fixed. It also showed that they are beatable and are now sure fire bets to win the AFC in a run away.

The "Adrian Peterson Is On A Bye, So I Have To Pick Other Guys" 3 Stars Of The Week
3. Julian Edelman
The one thing I like about Bill Bellicheat is that he always finds ways to have one guy you didn't expect play a big part in beating you. This week that guy was Julian Edelman. Edelman returned a punt for a touchdown and also caught a pass for a touchdown. He was also one tackle away from returning a kickoff for one as well. Edelman isn't someone who wows you with his athletic ability, but he's a hard worker who can make a play if you take him lightly.

2. A.J. Green
If you still have doubts about A.J. Green being one of the Top 5 WRs in the league, then you don't know football. Green had another touchdown catch this week in Cincinnati's rout of the Chiefs. That gives Green 10 on the year. He's had one in every game this year except for Week 1. You have to wonder where Cincinnati's offense would be without Green. They really don't have too many other weapons. Sooner or later, teams will have to start doubling him like they do Calvin Johnson.

1. Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson
These two share the award because they both put up some tremendous stats this week against Jacksonville. Schaub threw for 527 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Johnson caught 14 passes for 273 yards and scored the game winning touchdown. This is just an example of what the Texans could have been like all these years if everyone on offense had stayed healthy. Things are finally starting to come together in Houston, and they have the Super Bowl in their sights.

The Almost As Bad As Most Cancelled Fall TV Shows 3 Goats of the Week
3. Philadelphia Eagles Defense
I don't know how much more evidence you need to see that the Eagles have quit on this season. That may have been some of the worst coverage I have seen in my football watching life this past week. Robert Griffin had all day to throw and the secondary just had complete lapses in coverage, allowing WRs to get open. I'm surprised Andy Reid is still coaching this team.

2. Ken Wisenhunt
OK. I understand that John Skelton has been struggling lately. But why in your right mind would you pull him, on the road, with your team surprisingly in the lead, against one of the best team's in the NFC. And it isn't even like it was a veteran. It was a rookie QB who has not seen the field this year. Needless to say, Ryan Lindley did not fair to well, and Arizona lost their lead. Is Wisenhunt trying to lose his job?

1. Bart Scott
Bart Scott used to be a very good team leader for the Jets.Now, you have to wonder if he has just lost his damn mind. Scott tried leading a locker room mutiny against the media after their win against the Rams. Of course, this is because of the story that came out last week that un-named Jets players ripped Tebow for being terrible. Well guess what Bart, the players on your defense are the ones that are bringing unwanted attention to this team. Your media mutiny only made you guys look like bigger fools than you already were. The Jets have become a side show act. No one takes them seriously anymore.

Other Week 11 Notes
-If I am the Pittsburgh Steelers, I am very concerned about making the Playoffs. At 6-4 they stand in the final Wild Card position. But as they showed last night, it is going to be a struggle for them with all of these injuries catching up to them. Ben Roethlisberger just makes that team so much better. And now it looks like Byron Leftwich is down, meaning that Pittsburgh will have to turn to Charlie Batch at QB. Now they are bringing in WR Plaxico Burress because they are down at that position too. I wouldn't even worry about catching the Ravens, I would just be worried about holding on to the spot they have now. They go to Cleveland next week, a team that the Steelers struggle with at times. The game is always low scoring, and that is with Big Ben at QB. They then go to Baltimore and face another dog fight there. The Steelers need to find different ways to win these games coming up. If the Steelers lose the next two games, Big Ben will have a lot riding on his shoulders if he returns with four games left.

-Jason Garrett still needs to be worried about his job, even after yesterday's come from behind win against the Browns. Why should Garrett be worried? Because his team had to come from behind to beat the Browns. I've always thought Cleveland would be a team that will fight tooth and nail until the end of every game this year. That's their mentality. But the Cowboys have more talent and should have won that game without any problems at home. Then again, they are the Cowboys. A team that for some reason only likes to show up in the second half of each game. Add to the fact that Browns President Mike Holmgren was seen talking to Cowboys Owner Jerry Jones on the sidelines, and Garrett has even more to be worried about. A report came out that this weekend that Holmgren would only return to coach the Cowboys. Holmgren is stepping down as Browns President, Garrett is on the hot seat, this report comes out, and Holmgren is seen talking to Jones. Pieces keep falling into places.

-We are only heading into Week 12, but it looks like every division in the AFC is wrapped up. New England has a two game lead in the AFC East, but no other team has the talent in that division to catch them. The Texans have a three game lead in the AFC South and still play the Colts twice. They also hold wins over Denver and Baltimore, and still play New England. The Texans essentially control their own destiny for the #1 seed in the AFC. Denver holds a three game lead over the Chargers and have beaten them twice. No one is catching Denver there. And the Ravens hold a two game lead over Pittsburgh and just beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. What does this all mean? It means the question of resting players will come into effect pretty early for all of these teams. Now these four teams are looking to establish themselves and work out the final kinks they have before the Playoffs role around. All four of these teams have their own strengths and weakness, and they will look to fix those weaknesses with the Playoffs looming.

The HOT HOT HOT SEAT
-These Guys Should Just Start Packing Their Desks Already
1. Andy Reid, Philadelphia
2. Norv Turner, San Diego
3. Ron Rivera, Carolina
4. Romeo Crennel, Kansas City

-The I Wouldn't Buy A House Quite Yet In That Town Group
1. Jason Garrett, Dallas
2. Pat Shurmur, Cleveland
3. Ken Wisenhunt, Arizona

Random One Liners
-Why was everyone all hyped up about the Dolphins again?

-Why do the Steelers have so may awful uniforms?

-I bet Larry Fitzgerald regrets signing that contract extension now.

-If only Sam Bradford had some actual weapons to help him out on offense.

-Someone should give Mason Crosby the leg of the turkey for dinner.

-Maybe Jon Gruden will just leave the announce booth and start coaching the Eagles next week.

The FAB FIVE
1. Houston Texans
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. New England Patriots
5. San Francisco 49ers

The TURRIBLE FIVE
28. Cleveland Browns
29. Oakland Raiders
30. Carolina Panthers
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
32. Kansas City Chiefs

Three Games I'd Like To See Next Week
Green Bay at New York Giants: Did the bye week help the reeling Giants?
San Francisco vs New Orleans: Classic defense vs offense battle.
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay: Can Bucs keep up impressive run?

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 11 Picks

A bit of a down turn from previous weeks, but still respectable.

Last Week: 9-5
Year to Date: 94-51

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
The Bills last week showed how good they can be when the offense plays to its potential. They came very close to beating the Patriots last week in Foxboro, but a bad Ryan Fitzpatrick interception in the end zone ended those hopes. The defense all was run over again. When you score 31 points in the NFL, you expect to win the game. But the defense barely put any pressure on Tom Brady and could not cause any turnovers. Buffalo has an easy schedule coming up so there is still a glimmer of hope for the team. Even without Fred Jackson, the Bills should be okay with the electric C.J. Spiller in the backfield. He needs more touches and he will get them now. Miami was embarrassed last week at home and might have ended any hopes of a decent season happening this year. The offense looked terrible for the first time all season. And the defense was ran over by Chris Johnson. I don't know what changed for Miami, but things didn't look good. On a short week, I like the Bills here. Miami will still be reeling from their bad loss.

Buffalo 27  Miami 17

JC's Take: Stars, Goats and Notes From Week 10 of the NFL

Team of the Week: New Orleans Saints
-The Saints struggled mightily for the first month of the season. The offense put up points, but the defense had problems shutting teams down. But in the last two weeks, the Saints defense stepped up and helped them win games. Last week, the Saints defense held the Philadelphia Eagles to 13 points. This week against the Saints they came up with a huge 4th down stop inside their own 10 yard line with under 2 minutes left. Then they stopped the Falcons at the end of the game and handed the Falcons their first loss of the season. The Saints are now 4-5 and are in no way out of the NFC Playoff picture yet. If the Saints defense can show up and have a consistently strong performance every week, then they will be right back in the thick of things. Drew Brees and the offense can put up 30+ points like its nothing. If the Saints can hold teams to under 30 points every week, then they can win just about any game.

Justin's Take: Stars, Goats & Notes From Week 7

Game of the Week: New England 29  NY Jets 26 (OT)
-I try to be unbiased as a writer. But deciding who to root for between these two teams is like trying to decide whether you want a root canal or a tooth pull without any Novocaine. I just can't do it. But these two did put on one heck of a football game Sunday. Despite all the problems the media overhypes with the Jets, they are still a decent football team. They're a better 3-4 football team then the Bills are now by a long shot. If Tim Tebow wasn't there the drama would be less. But the Jets gave New England everything they could handle. They came up with huge fumble recovery late on a New England kick return. But they needed to convert that into a touchdown. It almost seemed like they settled for a field goal. That allowed New England to come back and tie the game and then eventually win in OT. The Patriots still don't look like the dominant team that everyone is used to seeing. But they still found a way to win after giving up a lead late. They're still the best team in the AFC East, but not as dominant as in years past.

NFL Week 7 Picks

I apologize for my abomination of a job picking last week. If I don't do better this week, you can riot.

Last Week: 6-8
Year to Date: 53-37

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
If you like defensive struggles, then this one will be right down your ally. Seattle has arguably the best defense in the league. They gave up some yards last week to Tom Brady, but they did not break in their victory over New England. We also saw Russell Wilson come of age and lead a game winning drive right down the field. Wilson had his best performance as a starter and silenced any critics he had coming into the game. Wilson's reward for having such a good game? Going to San Francisco on short rest to face an angry 49ers team. The 49ers were schooled in every aspect of the game last week against the Giants. You know it has to be getting under everyone's skin in San Francisco. That is how this team thinks mentally with Jim Harbaugh at the helm. The 49ers gave Colin Kapernick the chance to play a bit more last week, and you wonder if he will get more time as the weeks go on. Especially if Alex Smith struggles again. This game gives the winner the early lead in the NFC West. The 49ers rebounded nicely after their loss to Minnesota, and I think they do that again here.

San Francisco 20  Seattle 16

Justin's Take: Stars, Goats and Notes from NFL Week 4

Game of the Week: Green Bay 28  New Orleans 27
-Four weeks into the season and the New Orleans Saints are 0-4. I don't think anyone, even me who was down on the Saints this year, saw this coming. New Orleans has been hanging around in every single one of these games. But their defense just hasn't been able to come up with the big stop. And the Saints had the opportunity to win on Sunday, but a holding penalty negated a game winning field goal, and then Garrett Hartley missed on his second try. The Packers picked up a nice win, but they do not look like the dominant team they were last year. The game was close throughout which is what I like. No blowout and a battle of wills throughout.

NFL Week 4 Picks

Picks for Week 4. Hopefully, none of you took my advice last week.

Week 4 Record: 8-8
Year to Date Record: 26-21

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
So, is it time to panic in Carolina? Everyone was hyped up for them against the Giants and expected them to take care of the short handed Giants last Thursday. Instead, the Panthers were whipped like a government mule. The offense couldn't move the ball at all, and the defense could not stop the Giants on the ground or through the air. Steve Smith called out Cam Newton after the game and told him to quit pouting. People seem to be making a bigger story out of it than it seems. Now the Panthers risk the possibility of going 1-3 with this trip to Atlanta. The Falcons have looked almost unstoppable on offense. And last Sunday the defense went into San Diego and shut down a pretty good Chargers offense. If the Panthers couldn't stop Ramses Barden, what makes me think they will stop Julio Jones and Roddy White? Nothing. Falcons win this one.

Atlanta 31  Carolina 20

NFL Week 1 Picks

Yes, its back. The NFL Season is finally here and with that it is the return of my picks! Nothing changes from last year. I will post my picks here with some analysis. I know I missed Thursdays game. I will try to tweet my pick for that game before hand so I have proof of it. Good thing I didn't do that this week. Hopefully I can get some of these games right.

Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears
Tough way for Andrew Luck to break into the league. Luck had a decent pre-season, but he is walking into a very tough match-up against the Chicago Bears and their defense. Luck can expect to face some heavy pressure from Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher. It will be tough for the Colts offense to get anything going either on the pass or on the ground. Jay Cutler, meanwhile, finally gets the #1 WR he has been so desperately missing since he has come to Chicago. Cutler and Brandon Marshall were very good together in Denver and Chicago is expecting the same thing from them. The Bears also have a great one-two punch in the backfield with Matt Forte and Michael Bush. The Bears can't afford any slip ups if they want to compete for the NFC North Title, and I think they win this one rather easily.

Chicago 31  Indianapolis 13

NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC East Edition

After Week 3 this year it appeared that the AFC East may have a new dog on top. The Bills beat the Patriots for the first time since 2003. But the Bills faltered down the stretch, and the Patriots won the AFC East for the 8th time in nine years. The Patriots offense by the end of the year was a machine that couldn't be stopped. They have a duel threat at tight end with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and the always pesky Wes Welker at WR. The Jets took a step backward last year, failing to make the Playoffs for the first time under Rex Ryan. And there is dysfunction in the locker room. The Bills finally looked ready to make the Playoffs for the first time in a decade, but they faltered down the stretch. The Dolphins started the season 0-7 and appeared poised to draft Andrew Luck first overall, but they finished strong going 6-3 in their last nine games. This is a strong division that only appears to be going up with teams like the Bills and Dolphins getting stronger.

Super Bowl XLVI Preview

It is almost here. The day every football fan waits for. A day where even non-football fans sit down and enjoy the game of football.

Super Bowl 46 is this Sunday, and it is a match-up that at least NBC, and I'm sure the NFL is happy about. The New York Giants and New England Patriots go at it this Sunday in Indianapolis, with the winner being Champions of the NFL. Why does NBC, the NFL and the advertisers love this match-up? It's simple: New York vs Boston, two of the biggest markets in the USA.

NFL Championship Weekend Preview

The second last one of these of the year. Last week was the complete opposite of what I was expecting. Saints/49ers ended up being the best game of the weekend, and may have been the best non-Super Bowl game I have ever watched. The game I was expecting to be the best, Giants/Packers, ended up being a Giants romp in the 2nd half. The Patriots wiped the floor with the Broncos, and the Ravens held on late to take out the Texans. I finished 3-1 on the week, just like in the Wild Card round, with my only loss the Packers. And that was the game I felt the least confident about. Just like last week, I will give a brief write-up about the team's that lost last weekend.

New Orleans: There is no doubt that the Saints will be a Super Bowl contender again next year. Greg Williams left the Saints to become defensive coordinator of the Rams, but that may end up being a good thing for the Saints. Their defense was torched by Alex Smith and have lacked the same punch they had the last couple of years. And with Steve Spagnuolo in the fold, the defense should be even better. The Saints will sign Drew Brees to a big contract, and that alone will make the Saints still contenders, even if they lose Marques Colston or Robert Meachem in free agency.

Denver: John Elway says Tim Tebow has done enough to be the starter heading into Broncos training camp, and he's right. Tebow will only continue to improve as the Broncos make an offense that suits Tebow's strengths. While the Broncos offense still needs some work, their defense showed they aren't as good as they thought they were against Tom Brady. They need some help in the secondary big time, and could use a good coverage linebacker as well. The AFC West could be down again next year, so the Broncos have every opportunity to win it again next year.

Houston: The Texans were affected by a rash of injuries throughout the year. T.J. Yates struggled against Baltimore, throwing two bad interceptions in the process. With Matt Schaub back next year, as well as pass rusher Mario Williams, the Texans should still remain a top contender in the AFC next year. No one in the AFC South looks particularly threatening. Even if Peyton Manning returns, there is no idea what kind of team he will have around him.

Green Bay: The Packers shot themselves in the foot against the Giants. Multiple dropped passes, turnovers, and that hail mary at the end of the half killed the Packers chances. Green Bay needs some serious help on defense next year, especially in the secondary. The Packers also need to establish some kind of run game early in the season to help take some pressure off of Aaron Rodgers. Just like the Saints, expect the Packers to be contending for the Super Bowl again next year.

Now, on to the Picks!

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: 3:00 P.M. on CBS
Many people saw these two teams meeting up in late January for the right to go to the Super Bowl. The Patriots have gotten here pretty much through their offense. While the Patriots defense has been playing a bit better as of late, they still have their weakness. They also haven't played a team the caliber of the Ravens this year. Tom Brady hasn't faced a defense as good as the Ravens. The Ravens usually give Brady fits, and it should be no different here. Baltimore is once again knocking on the door of the Super Bowl and look to finally get over that hump this year. The parallels to the Ravens Super Bowl winning team is there. A strong defensive unit lead by an average QB. The Ravens defensive veterans know this could be their last shot at the Super Bowl, and you know they will be focused on getting there. Three Questions Time!

Can Joe Flacco Take Advantage of the Patriots Secondary?
The Patriots ranked 31st against the pass this year. There are no excuses for Joe Flacco in this one. Safety Ed Reed called out Flacco this week, saying Flacco looked a bit rattled against the Texans and that he needs to get rid of the ball quicker. Flacco has been a big question mark all year. You never know what kind of performance you will get from him. But there is no doubt Flacco needs to play well here against a suspect Patriots secondary. But Flacco needs help. He needs his WRs to beat man coverage. Both Torrey Smith and Lee Evans are quite capable of beating the Pats deep. Joe Flacco needs to show that he can be the QB to take the Ravens to the Super Bowl, because if he doesn't so it this year, he may not have a chance to do it again.

Will the Ravens Be Able to Slow Down Tom Brady?
The Ravens ranked third in total defense this year, fourth against the pass. They also finished tied for third in sacks with 48. You can bet they will bring pressure on Tom Brady. Brady sat out practice Wednesday with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. While Brady says it's nothing, there still has to be something bothering him. Brady has thrown multiply touchdowns in all but two games this year. We know all of the weapons Brady has, so it is tough for defenses to bring pressure. But the Ravens won't be afraid to do that, mostly because the Patriots have almost know running game to speak of. The Ravens need to get to Brady early, because it can disrupt his game and get him frustrated.

Which Team Shuts Down the "X-Factors?"
Both the Ravens and the Patriots have what I like to call "x-factors," or players that can change the game in an instant. For the Ravens, that player is Ray Rice. Rice torched the Patriots in their last playoff meeting. Rice is so quick and explosive that it makes it very difficult for defenders to tackle him. He's a game changer and is capable of breaking a big run at any time. The "x-factors" for the Patriots are Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. These duel tight ends have been unstoppable in recent weeks. The Patriots have even been using Aaron Hernandez out of the backfield as a running back. You can bet Ed Reed and Ray Lewis will have something to say about these two tight ends getting open. Whichever defense can shut down  the x-factor for the other team has the best chance to come out on top.

PREDICTION
I don't see either team pulling away from the other. It doesn't look like that kind of game. The Ravens defense will step up big time in this one. If they can take out Gronkowski and Hernandez then Brady will have to rely on his second and third looks, and by that time the Ravens blitz may already have taken down Brady. The Patriots still gave up a handful of big runs to the Broncos last week, so they have to be worried about Ray Rice breaking one off. But as I said in the beginning, this game is on Joe Flacco. He doesn't have to play like Tom Brady, he just has to do enough to get his team a victory. He can't lead a bad Patriots defense get to him. The Ravens still need to build their game plan around Ray Rice, and not Flacco have the game on his shoulders. While Tom Brady has been playing great football recently, I think the Ravens defense does just enough to shut down Brady and pick up the road win on the way to the Super Bowl.

Baltimore 24  New England 20

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers: 6:30 P.M. on FOX
This is a game between two teams peaking at the right time. In the Giants case, they are clearly playing their best football of the season. They smoked the Falcons in the Playoffs and took out the defending Super Bowl Champions on their home turf. The Giants defense is finally healthy. Their pass rush is getting to the QB, and that is taking some of the burden off of their secondary. And Eli Manning is playing like an elite QB and his Playoff experience is showing. The 49ers offense came alive last week against the Saints. Alex Smith may have made up for all of his short comings so far in his career with that great TD run and then another great TD pass to Vernon Davis with 6 seconds left, a catch being called "The Catch 3" in San Francisco. The defense gave up a surprising amount of points, but the offense came to life in an unexpected way. I don't know if anyone thought the 49ers would win a shootout with New Orleans.

Will Eli Keep Up His "ELIte" Performance?
In two Playoff games, Eli Manning has looked great. He has thrown 6 TDs in two games and has a passer rating of 121.8. Eli has what may be the best trio of WRs in the league with Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham. With the 49ers having the best run defense in the NFL, expect this game to come down to the arm of Manning for the Giants. While the 49ers corners are very good, their safeties can be exposed. Specifically, Donte Whitner was burned for two TDs against the Saints. Expect Eli to target him often, even if it is with TE Jake Ballard. Whitner struggles to cover TEs in coverage, so Eli might be able to take advantage. The 49ers defense was torched by Drew Brees, and while Brees is still better than Eli, Eli can take advantage just like Brees did.

Is Alex Smith For Real?
While Alex Smith has improved this year under Jim Harbaugh, I don't think anyone saw his performance against the Saints coming. With 299 yards and 3 TDs, Alex Smith finally looked like a #1 pick. Smith's 26 yard TD run to put the 49ers up was a thing of beauty. Smith was sacked four times last week, and he will face a better pass rush this week with the Giants coming to town. Smith will need to get the ball out quickly in order to avoid having Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyora and Justin Tuck in his face. Expect the Giants to try and take away Vernon Davis and make the 49ers WRs beat them, which is something San Francisco can not allow. They also can't let the emotion of last week's win distract them from their goal. Alex Smith has shown this year that he can lead a team to the Playoffs, and a win here will show that Smith may not have the flash of a #1 overall pick, but he can do enough to get the job done.

How Much of A Factor Will the Weather Be?
The forecast for the game this Sunday is not a good one. There is a 70% chance of rain after kickoff with some high winds expected. That could lead to a sloppy game on the grass field in San Francisco. If that is the case, then the edge may be in the 49ers court. Frank Gore is a very good runner capable of breaking a big run. The Giants had the last ranked running attack in the NFL in the regular season but it came alive in the late portions of the season. Specifically, Brandon Jacobs looks like he's running with purpose. Jacobs has been running over defenders at a constant basis. But he will face the ultimate test against the #1 rush defense in the NFL. If rain is a factor, I think the edge goes to the 49ers.

PREDICTION
This is a tough game to predict. The 49ers are coming off of a huge, emotionally charged win against one of the best offenses and QBs the NFL has seen in the last decade. The 49ers will also have the home crowd behind them. San Francisco is coming off one of the most unexpected season's in NFL history. Jim Harbaugh has lead them to the Playoffs and has brought new life to the 49ers orginization. But the Giants are playing their best football of the season and may have been the best team in the league in the last month of the season. Eli Manning isn't afraid of going on the road in the Playoffs. He's won in Lambeau twice, so San Francisco isn't that intimidating to him. The 49ers defense can't have lapses like they had last week against Drew Brees. This game will be won by whichever team gets more pressure on the QB. Despite his strong performance last week, I think the Giants get to Alex Smith and it rattles him a bit, and Eli Manning makes a few big plays to his WRs and takes the Giants to their second Super Bowl under Eli and Tom Coughlin.

NY Giants 27  San Francisco 23

There you ahve it. Obviously nothing next week, but for the Super Bowl I will have a postion by position breakdown of the match-up, as well as the 3 keys and x-factors to the game.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Divisional Round Preview

Here I am, back again. It is Playoff Weekend again in the NFL, but now the big boys in both conferences are here. I went 3-1 last week, with my only loss being Pittsburgh against Denver. But you have to hand it to big play Tebow in that one. First let me share my thoughts on the losing teams from Wild Card Weekend.

-Cincinnati played tough, but that pick 6 killed all of their momentum heading into the second half. That is the one thing Andy Dalton had to avoid heading into half time. The Bengals are still a young team and will be back in the hunt for a Playoff spot next year. Having Jay Gruden stay on as offensive coordinator and not leave for Jacksonville or Miami is huge for them. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will continue to grow into one of the best QB-WR tandems in the league, and that defense isn't going anywhere. Hopefully next year people actually come to watch this team play.

NFL Week 15 Picks

Only 3 weeks to go!

Last Week's Record: 11-5
Year to Date Record: 136-72

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
I guess Jacksonville just needed to face a team in worse shape then they were to get going. The Jaguars scored 41 points last week against Tampa Bay. Now two of those TDs were from the defense, but the offense still put up respectable numbers. Maurice Jones-Drew had one of his best games of the year. That helped take the pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. Jones-Drew won't find the goings as easy though against the Falcons. The Falcons came back from 16 down in the 3rd quarter to beat Carolina and stay ahead in the NFC Wild Card Race. Matt Ryan has had a solid last two outings, and he's needed them due to the groin injury that RB Michael Turner is dealing with. Turner has struggled the last 3 weeks. I thought he would break out against Carolina, but that didn't happen. The Jags defense has struggled against the run in the last month of the season, so if Turner can't get going here, something might really be wrong. This is a game the Falcons should easily win. They have more talent everywhere and are actually playing for something.

Atlanta 31  Jacksonville 13

NFL Week 11 Picks

NFL Picks Time! Woo Woo Woo, You Know It!

Last Week's Record: 7-9 YUCK!
Year to Date Record: 91-55

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos
Just when it looks like the Jets are about to become the team to beat in the AFC East they go and lay an egg against the Patriots. It looked like the same Jets team I thought had problems earlier in the year. Mark Sanchez struggling, the run game not going, and the defense looking confused a bit at times. Now the Jets have to go to Denver to face a Broncos team that has won three of their last four games. They beat the Chiefs by only completing two passes, and only attempting eight! No matter how much we try to deny it, Tim Tebow has brought new life to this Broncos team. Now, I don't think the Broncos can beat the Jets throwing only eight passes and running 54 times. But the Jets may have problems stopping the Broncos new option offense on such a short week. But if there is one guy that can do it, it may be Rex Ryan. I think this game is close, and the Broncos may very well pull off the upset. But the Jets have more talent and win in a very close affair.

NY Jets 20  Denver 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers
And the Packers just keep rolling rolling rolling. They just swept the Vikings under the rug on Monday night. That passing offense may be one of the better passing attacks in the league history. Aaron Rodgers is winning the MVP award, end of story. There are some other nice stories but it is Rodgers award to lose. The Packers still have some flaws in their pass defense, but their front seven makes up for it with a great attack. Can they go undefeated? Absolutely. In order for a team to beat them, they need a great front seven that can pressure Rodgers. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, they do not have that. Tampa looked terrible in their loss to Houston last week. It's frightening to see how much the offense has regressed this year. And the defense was exposed big time by Houston. I would expect Green Bay to do much of the same to Tampa. They will shut down LaGarrette Blount and force Josh Freeman to beat them, which is not happening. Packers win.

Green Bay 34  Tampa Bay 21

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions
Both of these teams are coming off losses they would like to forget. I thought the Panthers would be a good second half spoiler, but the Titans may have demoralized them last week. They came up with a great defensive strategy that shut down Cam Newton. The Panthers special teams was also burned big time for a couple of plays. The Lions, meanwhile, were absolutely trounced by the Bears in Chicago. Matthew Stafford can't throw the ball 60+ times and be expected to win. The lack of a running game for the Lions is disturbing. They really miss Jahvid Best, and he may not be back for the rest of the year. That could hurt the Lions when it comes to their playoff chances. Their secondary is also weak and that could be a problem this week. Steve Smith could be in line for a big game. The Panthers could easily walk into Detroit and steal one, but I think the Lions are a better team and they will win a close one.

Detroit 28  Carolina 23

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns
This may be a game between the two worst offenses in the NFL. Neither team seems able to eclipse the 24 point mark this year. Blaine Gabbert has shown some signs of improvement the last few games, but he still is just an average QB at best for Jacksonville. The Browns can't get anything going at all on offense. They were only able to score 12 points last week against St. Louis. It's almost like they are afraid to go into the end zone. Both teams have some strengths on defense. Jacksonville can stop the run, whereas Cleveland can stop the pass. But Cleveland has problems stopping the run, so Maurice Jones-Drew should have a nice game. Jacksonville wins a game no one watches.

Jacksonville 19  Cleveland 9

Oakland Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings
In the weekly "Favorite to Win the AFC West" contest, Oakland has taken a one game lead over everyone else in the division. Carson Palmer finally looks comfortable under center. He should look more comfortable here as the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and they just lost CB Antoine Winfield for the year with a broken collarbone. Darren McFadden is likely to miss this game, but the Raiders shouldn't miss a beat with Michael Bush, who had a breakout game last week. The Vikings struggled Monday night against the Packers. Hopefully it wasn't too deflating for them. Christian Ponder was pressured a lot by the Packers defense. Expect another game with a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson from the Vikings. The Vikings will improve eventually, but the Raiders are the better team right now and are playing the better football. Carson Palmer has a big game and the Raiders roll.

Oakland 27  Minnesota 17

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
Where have everyone's Lovable Bills gone. After scoring 30 points with ease their first few games, the Bills have scored a combined 18 points in their last two outings. They have steered away from handing off the ball to Fred Jackson, which is what they should be doing more often. The loss of Center Eric Wood for the year will hurt, as he was arguably their best offensive linemen. The defense, especially the secondary, has also been pushed around the last few weeks. Tony Romo was nearly perfect against them. While the Bills have lost two in a row, the Dolphins have won two in a row. Reggie Bush has looked like a feature back these last two games. Matt Moore looks comfortable in the pocket. The defense is also playing much better. A few weeks ago this looked like a very winnable game for the Bills. Now? It could be much worse. If Brandon Marshall keeps up his hot play, it could mean trouble for the Bills. But the Bills are the more talented team, and they should pull out a close victory here.

Buffalo 28  Miami 24

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Redskins
The Cowboys looked like the team everyone thinks they are last week. Tony Romo looked like Aaron Rodgers, and DeMarco Murray continues to run all over any defense he faces. And the defense looks like they have finally come around after getting smoked by the Eagles a few weeks ago. The Cowboys have a very soft schedule left. Their only tough games are against the Giants. The Redskins, well, who knows. They probably hope that the Dolphins and Seahawks continue to win so they can get a higher pick the Draft next year. It is pretty clear Mike Shanahan doesn't care for either Rex Grossman or John Beck. Grossman started last week and looked almost as bad as Beck did. The offense is right up there with the Jaguars and Browns as far as bad offenses go. How did they win 3 games? They don't win this one. The Cowboys walk all over the Redskins.

Dallas 34  Washington 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Another huge AFC North showdown. The Bengals were brought back down to earth a bit last week with their home loss to Pittsburgh. They competed the whole game which was a good sign. Andy Dalton made a couple rookie mistakes, including that interception had the end of the game. The Bengals may be without WR AJ. Green for this game. That would be a huge loss for the Bengals, as it takes away their main offensive threat. The Bengals also lost CB Leon Hall for the rest of the year with a torn ACL. That's a big loss for a good Bengals defense. Hall was their best corner, and now teams may be able to throw on them more often. The bad Ravens showed up again last week, getting beat by the Seahawks in Seattle. How do you only give Ray Rice five carries? He is your best offensive weapon, he should be touching the ball 20+ times a game. Joe Flacco shouldn't carry your offense, Ray Rice should. The Ravens defense should stack the box and force Dalton to beat them. I think the Ravens will re-focus on Ray Rice here. If they don't, the Ravens may start to question the thinking of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Ravens in another close one.

Baltimore 21  Cincinnati 20

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers
Don't look now, but the Cardinals have won two in a row with John Skelton at QB. He even threw for 3 touchdowns last week against a pretty good Eagles secondary. Do they even go back to Kolb when he gets healthy? The Cardinals suspect defense also shut down Mike Vick last week. If they can shut down Vick, can they do the same to Alex Smith? The 49ers have won eight in a row and seem poised to lock up the NFC West by the beginning of December. Frank Gore may sit out this game, but they wouldn't drop too far off with Kendall Hunter in the backfield. Hunter already proved he can handle the workload in the backfield. Expect Smith to look for Vernon Davis a lot in this game. The 49ers defense shouldn't have a problem shutting down an injured Beanie Wells, but Larry Fitzgerald may have a good game with the 49ers secondary playing just average. I like the 49ers here to get to 9-1.

San Francisco 23  Arizona 17

Seattle Seahawks vs St. Louis Rams
The Seahawks shocked everyone last week with an upset of the Ravens. Marshawn Lynch is finally running like the feature running back everyone thought he could be when he was traded to Seattle. Lynch's moves to get the first down to seal the game for Baltimore were great. Expect another heavy dose of Lynch from the Seahawks in this game. Seattle may be without WRs Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin, as both men suffered concussions last week. The Rams picked up an ugly road win last week at Seattle. The Sam Bradford-Brandon Lloyd connection looks like it could be a good one in the future. The Rams should do everything they can to sign Lloyd in the off-season. Those two combined with Steven Jackson could form a nice trio for the Rams. The Rams defense has stepped up its game recently, so expect them to do everything they can to shut down Lynch and make Tavaris Jackson beat them. I like the Rams to win here. They're finally getting healthy on offense.

St. Louis 30  Seattle 20

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons
This may actually be the biggest game of the week as far as playoff implications go. Both of these teams are 5-4 and hanging on to their wild card lives. The Falcons are coming off an OT loss to New Orleans which saw them go for a 4th and 1 at their own 29 and not convert. I defended Mike Smith and still do, but a lot of people are questioning that decision. The Falcons are still a good team. They have the talent to make the playoffs, but they need to figure out who the primary threat is on offense and focus on that. This game, the Falcons should focus on their passing attack and take advantage of a weak Tennessee secondary. The Titans keep winning and sticking around in the playoff race despite no one talking about them. Chris Johnson has played surprisingly well the last couple games, but he faces a stiff test here in the Falcons front seven. And if that front seven can pressure Matt Hasselbeck it could be a long day for the Titans offense. I think the Falcons are the better team and they pull out the win here.

Atlanta 27  Tennessee 21

San Diego Chargers vs Chicago Bears
Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions. Lets start with the Chargers, losers of four straight after a hot 4-1 start. The Kansas City debacle may comeback to be the turning point of the season. Or you could go back to the week before where the Chargers lost a double digit second half lead against the Jets. Philip Rivers isn't the same Philip Rivers of recent years. Sure he's putting up big stats, but he's also making some bad throws and questionable decisions. The defense is also having problems stopping anything through the air, and the run defense was torched by Michael Bush last week. The Bears, meanwhile, have won four in a row and have looked like the same team that won the NFC North last year. Jay Cutler is getting time to throw and Matt Forte is arguably the best running back in the league this year. And Devin Hester is a serious threat on special teams. And with the problems the Chargers have on special teams, they may find it best to just punt away from Hester in this one. The Bears front seven will pressure Rivers and force him into the same mistakes he's been making. Bears win in a high scoring affair.

Chicago 35  San Diego 30

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
The Eagles are the drama darlings of the NFL. Last week DeSean Jackson was benched for missing a team meeting, and the offense struggled without the threat of his big play ability. Then Mike Vick suffered broken ribs during the game. When it happened remains a question we probably won't ever find out. And then there is the defense. The Big $$$ secondary was burned by a QB named John Skelton. This team may have packed it in already for all we know. The players may cost Andy Reid his job. The Giants lost on the road last week, starting their tough stretch 1-1. They hung around and were driving late but they couldn't find a way to get into the end zone. Eli Manning looks good when he has all of his weapons at his disposal. They held San Francisco in check early, but couldn't keep them contained the whole game. This is a big game for the Giants and a needed win. They have New Orleans and Green Bay back to back coming up, a loss here would hurt their division chances. But the Giants are the more complete team, are in better shape mentally, and have already beat Philadelphia in Philly. And with Mike Vick not likely to play, the Giants should roll rather easily here.

NY Giants 30  Philadelphia 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots
A few weeks ago this game looked promising after Kansas City won three straight and looked like a good team on offense again. But the last two games? They scored a combined 13 points and look like the same bad team that started the season. And now they lost Matt Cassel for likely the rest of the year with a hand injury. The defense got shredded by the Tim Tebow option. They won't have to worry about that this week, as Tom Brady will just throw the ball at will on them. The Patriots once again looked like the favorite in the AFC East last week against the Jets. They still don't have much of a running game to speak of, which could hurt later on. The defense looked improved last week and will gain more confidence this week playing a bad Chiefs offense. No reason to think the Patriots won't role here.

New England 41  Kansas City 17

My Vegas $$$ Picks
Last Week's Record: 1-3
Year to Date Record: 23-16-1

Buffalo +2 at Miami: Bills are the more talented team.

Chicago -3.5 vs San Diego: Bears are playing much better than the Chargers right now.

NY Giants -4 vs Philadelphia: No Vick pretty much means no chance for Philadelphia.

New England -15 vs Kansas City: Chiefs may not score 15 points.

Survivor Series Preview up probably early Saturday.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 10 Review

A promising week of NFL action lead to a few good games as well as a couple of unexpected blowouts. I will preview the rest of the year and the playoff race at the end. No power rankings this week.

Team of the Week: Chicago Bears
-Talk about making a statement. The Bears beat Philadelphia last Monday night in Philly. This week? They man-handled the upstart Detroit Lions in Chicago. Chicago now controls their own destiny in the NFC Wild Card Race. They split with the Lions, which could help them in the long run. They also have the tiebreaker over Atlanta thanks to their Week 1 victory over them. Jay Cutler, when given time, can find his open WRs. And what else can you say about Devin Hester. If you punt that man the ball and your coverage team does not get downfield in time, he can make a big play. The defense also stepped up huge in shutting down the Lions offense. I think right now they make the playoffs as a Wild Card. They've won four straight and are playing some of the best football in the NFL right now.

Game of the Week: New Orleans 26  Atlanta 23
-Of course, the big story of this game is Mike Smith's decision to go for a 4th and an inch on his own 29 yard line in over time. Pretty much everyone is bashing Smith today, but I'm not. How much did they need for a 1st down? A chain length? If your team can't pick that up, then they don't deserve to win the football game. If anything, I had a problem with the offensive package they brought out, with all 11 players bunched up together. Spread it out a bit. Give the idea that hey, maybe we will throw a play action pass in here. But the Falcons pretty much sold run, and they ran, and the Saints got the better push up front and stopped Michael Turner. It was a good game throughout. The Falcons had a chance to win the game late in the 4th but Matt Ryan couldn't find any open WRs in the end zone, so they settled for a field goal. The Saints now control their own destiny in the NFC South.

Dog of the Week: Buffalo Bills
-Sorry boys, but you've disappointed your home town these last two weeks. Fans were ready to get over the Jets loss, but then you follow it up with an even worse loss to the Cowboys? That loss was worse than the two Super Bowl losses. The secondary was getting thrown on at will. I'm pretty sure I could have completed a couple passes against them. The secondary was suppose to be the strength of the defense. They can't get any pressure on the QB. And the offense has come to a complete stand still. The passing attack is getting shut down. Of course, when the defense puts you in a whole and can't get off the field, you have to throw to get back into the game. I thought this team was different from the 2008 team that started 5-1 and finished 7-9, but I don't know now. I don't even know if they can beat the Dolphins next week.

Other Week 10 Notes
-I almost gave the Dog of the Week award to Eagles WR DeSean Jackson. Jackson missed a team meeting on Saturday and was told to stay home Sunday as he was not going to be active for the game against Arizona. Jackson has been somewhat absent the last couple weeks from the Eagles offensive attack, so it wasn't too big of a loss. But it just adds to the joke that is the Eagles season. The team is now 3-6 and has pretty much no shot of making the playoffs. Some people are saying this may have to do with Jackson's on-going contract dispute with the Eagles, but I doubt the teams would go that far to have it affect their chance to win a football game. While Jackson has struggled in recent weeks, he is still a game changer with big play ability. The Eagles are a comedy of errors this year, and it may cost Andy Reid his job.

-Who is the best team in the AFC? It may just be the Houston Texans. Four straight wins headed into their bye next week. They've dominated every opponent they faced in that stretch too. They are clearly the class of the AFC South this year. They already beat their biggest competition, the Tennessee Titans, 41-7 in Week 7. And they are doing all of this without their best playmaker on offense, Andre Johnson. They have the number one rated defense in the NFL, without their best defensive playmaker Mario Williams. The Texans are 7-3 and currently the top seed in the AFC. But can they keep it up now with Matt Leinart at the helm? It's a good thing they have a two game lead on the Titans. Leinart is very unproven and never looked good anyways under center in Arizona. I still think the Texans win the division. But it gets tricky near the end. This is Matt Leinart's shot at redemption.

-Are the Denver Broncos about to revolutionize offense as we know it in the NFL? Tim Tebow threw eight passes against Kansas City, completing only two of them. But the Broncos still won 17-10 and are only a game out in the AFC West. The Broncos have brought the option offense into the NFL. Lots of teams think they are above that type of offense, but if it works with the personnel package you have, why not use it? Tebow is not going to win you games with his arm, so play to his strengths. Although I will admit, that TD pass to Eric Decker was a pretty good pass. I'm sure teams will begin to stack the box against Tebow, but it is tough to defend against the option if you don't have time to prepare for it. That's the problem the Jets might run into this week. They are down after a bad loss to the Patriots at home, and only have 3 days to prepare for the Broncos Thursday night. Denver has a legitimate shot at winning the AFC West.

-And just when you think the Patriots are down for the count, they get right back up and KO you with a surprise roundhouse. The Patriots knew it was a must win against the Jets, and they brought their A game on BOTH sides of the ball. I'm still not sold on their defense. Mark Sanchez didn't show up to play Sunday night. The defense was confused by the offensive looks of the Patriots. Tom Brady took advantage of the Jets safeties. The Jets now fall back down to earth, and as I said above, only have three days to prepare for Tim Tebow and the Broncos option offense. The Patriots have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. They play at Philadelphia, which doesn't look tough anymore, as well as at Denver and the Option and home to Buffalo. It's quite conceivable they could run the table and go 13-3, even with their terrible defense.

-So if Houston and New England are the favorites in their division, who is the favorite in the AFC North. Right now, I guess you have to say Pittsburgh again. But it almost changes by the hour. The Bengals were knocked down a peg after their home loss to Pittsburgh. The Ravens, who many people considered the favorite after beating the Steelers last week, lost on the road to Seattle. Next week's game between Cincinnati and Baltimore is big for both teams. The loser of that came falls to 6-4 and into a potential tie with the likes of the NY Jets, Buffalo Bills, and Tennessee Titans. The winner goes to 7-3 and has the inside track on the first Wild Card Spot, and if it is Baltimore that wins, they move back into first place in the AFC North. The Bengals lost Cornerback Leon Hall for the year with a torn ACL, which is a big blow to the defense. The Bengals have a tougher schedule with two games against Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, and Houston coming to town. The AFC Playoff race is a jumbled mess at this point.

Hey I'm Just Sayin...
-The 49ers Defense is good, but can their offense hang with the Packers?

-Do the Cardinals stick with John Skelton or go back to Kevin Kolb?

-Hey Mike Shanahan, any chance I could get a shot at playing QB?

-Will the Colts even come back to play after their bye week?

-Cam Newton, I just traded for you in my fantasy league. Don't falter now.

-Tony Sparano isn't coaching for his job. He's coaching to screw the next coach out of Andrew Luck.

The Head Coaching Hot Seat: The Top 5!
1. Tony Sparano, Miami: These last couple wins are nice, but I still don't think Sparano is around after this season. The fans want a big name in Miami. They can't sell out the stadium. Look for either Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, or maybe even Jeff Fisher.

2. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis: I know, Peyton Manning isn't playing. But if the Colts finish 0-16, you almost have to fire Caldwell. There is still talent on that team despite the injuries and loss of Manning. But Caldwell just can't seem to motivate that team and that may force a change in Indy.

3. Todd Haley, Kansas City: Haley is coming off a division title, but the honeymoon ended quickly after a bad start. Sure he lost Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, but there's no excuses for Matt Cassel's poor play the last two weeks, or all season for that matter. Look for a potential new coach/QB combo next year.

4. Andy Reid, Philadelphia: I still don't think Reid gets fired at the end of the year, but if he continues to lose to terrible teams, he may just get the ax. The Philly front office may feel the overwhelming pressure from fans and the team thinking that Reid has lost control of the team and can't manage all of the ego that he has.

5a. Ken Wisenhunt, Arizona: Wisenhunt got his QB this year in Kevin Kolb. He still has Beanie Wells at running back and Larry Fitzgerald at WR. But the Cardinals are struggling in a bad division and can't seem to fin any rhythm on offense. They pulled off a couple wins in a row, but that was without Kolb at QB. They blew a big lead against Baltimore and the NY Giants. Wisenhunt may need a big second half and signs of progress to save his job.

5b. Norv Turner, San Diego: It almost seems like Turner is on the hot seat every year. There is a lot of talent in San Diego, but they can never seem to put it together come playoff time. The Chargers are struggling more than ever this year. They are 4-5 in a down year for the AFC West. Philip Rivers is having an off year, and the defense is having problems stopping people, specifically through the air. This may be Turner's last chance to right the ship in San Diego.

Looking Into the Playoff Picture
With 7 weeks left in the NFL season, lets take a look at the playoff picture and where I think every team will finish. I will list the current standings, then underneath each team their remaining schedules. Black bold means a win, red means a loss.

AFC

1. Houston Texans: 7-3

Bye, at Jacksonville, vs Atlanta, at Cincinnati, vs Carolina, at Indianapolis, vs Tennessee

Final Record, 11-5: There are some tough match-ups for the Texans left, especially the back to back games against Atlanta and Cincinnati. And now with Matt Schaub out, those match-ups look even tougher. I thought the Texans had a chance to win out, but not with Matt Leinart at QB. The Texans will still win the division because they have more talent than anyone else in the AFC South, but they will now lose a few games.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-3

Bye, at Kansas City, vs Cincinnati, vs Cleveland, at San Francisco, vs St. Louis, at Cleveland

Final Record, 12-4: The Steelers benefit from playing the lowly Cleveland Browns twice in there last 6 games, as well as having the Rams come into town late in the year. Right now the Steelers are playing at Kansas City Sunday night, but I think that might be flexed out of prime time. Monday night against San Fran will be tough, especially if the 49ers are still fighting for home field.

3. New England Patriots: 6-3

vs Kansas City, at Philadelphia, vs Indianapolis, at Washington, at Denver, vs Miami, vs Buffalo

Final Record, 12-4: As I said, I think the Patriots have a really easy schedule from here on out. I gave them a loss in Philadelphia because I don't think they match up well against Philly. Now I'm sure Philly will find a way to lose that game, but I like the match-up in their favor. I was also tempted with the Denver game to give the Pats a loss, but I think Bellicheck will find a way to keep Tebow in check.

4. Oakland Raiders: 5-4

at Minnesota, vs Chicago, at Miami, at Green Bay, vs Detroit, at Kansas City, vs San Diego

Final Record, 9-7: I was thinking of looking at the whole AFC West, but I'm pretty sure this record will be good enough to win the AFC West. The Chiefs might not win another game, Denver has a brutal schedule ahead, and I think teams will figure out how to stop the option sooner rather than later, and San Diego will lose at least three more games. So I'm giving this to Oakland almost by default. I don't know if they can't beat Baltimore, or even the Jets for a second time, but being in the Black Hole will help.

5. Baltimore Ravens: 6-3

vs Cincinnati, vs San Francisco, at Cleveland, vs Indianapolis, at San Diego, vs Cleveland, at Cincinnati

Final Record, 11-5: Baltimore is really tough to predict. You think they would beat Cleveland both times, but they might lose one of them. Could they actually struggle against Indianapolis? I think the Ravens are a veteran enough team to win late down the stretch. They need to get Joe Flacco right or else they won't have any kind of chance to win a playoff game. The Ravens are my Super Bowl pick from the AFC, and I'm still sticking by them.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: 6-3

at Baltimore, vs Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, vs Houston, at St. Louis, vs Arizona, vs Baltimore

Final Record, 9-7: The loss of CB Leon Hall is going to hurt this team, no questions asked. He is their top corner and a cornerstone of the defense. The Bengals showed they can hang with the big boys against Pittsburgh, but I don't know if they can do it for the long haul. Pittsburgh and Houston back-to-back is tough, and going to St. Louis late has all the signs of a trap game. The Bengals were a nice early story, but I think they falter down the stretch.

7. NY Jets: 5-4

at Denver, vs Buffalo, at Washington, vs Kansas City, at Philadelphia, vs NY Giants, at Miami

Final Record, 10-6: This coming week against Denver is a big game. Can the Jets solve the option offense in time? After that, they already proved they are better than the Bills. Washington and Kansas City have no offense to speak of. I think going to Philly makes it tougher for the Jets, as they struggle on the road. The Giants have enough weapons to expose the defense. But I think in the end, the Jets get in because they will have the tiebreaker over the Bills.

8. Buffalo Bills: 5-4

at Miami, at NY Jets, vs Tennessee, at San Diego, vs Miami, vs Denver, at New England

Final Record, 10-6: If the Bills don't beat Miami this week, then they may lose out. This team has taken a few knockout blows in the last couple weeks, so they need this one bad. The Bills should win their last 3 home games. They can beat San Diego on the road. It may come down to the last week against San Diego, and even if the Pats have a seed wrapped, you don't think they still have revenge on their mind against Buffalo. The Bills just miss out.

9. Tennessee Titans: 5-4

at Atlanta, vs Tampa Bay, at Buffalo, vs New Orleans, at Indianapolis, vs Jacksonville, at Houston

Final Record, 8-8: The Titans have a brutal schedule late. They did a good job of shutting down Cam Newton, but the Falcons and Saints offenses are a different story. Houston already wiped the floor with Tennessee in Tennessee, no reason they couldn't do it again in Houston. The Titans will probably win the games they are suppose to win, but lose the ones they are suppose to lose.

FINAL AFC STANDINGS

1. Pittsburgh Steelers  12-4

2. New England Patriots  12-4

3. Houston Texans  11-5

4. Oakland Raiders  9-7

5. Baltimore Ravens  11-5

6. New York Jets  10-6

--------------------------------------------

7. Buffalo Bills  10-6

8. Cincinnati Bengals  9-7

9. Tennessee Titans  8-8

NFC Playoff Picture

1. Green Bay Packers: 9-0

vs Tampa Bay, at Detroit, at NY Giants, vs Oakland, at Kansas City, vs Chicago, vs Detroit

Final Record, 15-1: I really thought about giving the Packers a perfect record. Three weeks ago I would have thought they lose at Detroit on Thansgiving, but I don't think that happens anymore. I think the Giants pass rush will do just enough to disrupt Aaron Rodgers and not allow him to throw at will on the Giants secondary. The Packers are a great offensive teams with defensive flaws in their secondary which might be a problem come January.

2. San Francisco 49ers: 8-1

vs Arizona, at Baltimore, vs St. Louis, at Arizona, vs Pittsburgh, at Seattle, at St. Louis

Final Record, 15-1: The 49ers must love the fact that 5 of their last 7 games are against divisional opponents. They face the AFC North's two best teams, but they can beat both of them. Baltimore is very up and down, and they get Pittsburgh at home which will be a plus. I think the 49ers win out. Their defense is that good. This is why I wanted Jim Harbaugh in Buffalo. He took pretty much the same group of guys from last year's team, adopted to their strengths, and got them playing winning football. And in this scenario, the 49ers would get home field in the NFC due to a better record in common games compared to Green Bay. San Fran beat the Giants, Green Bay wouldn't in my scenario.

3. New Orleans Saints: 7-3

Bye, vs NY Giants, vs Detroit, at Tennessee, at Minnesota, vs Atlanta, vs Carolina

Final Record, 13-3: Another win out scenario. These aren't the same Saints of old. They can be beat, but I don't see it. It helps to have two weeks to prepare for the Giants. Detroit looks like they could be on a downfall, and having Atlanta again in the Superdome helps. There is a blue print to stop the Saints offense, but I don't know if any of these teams have the personnel to stop it. I think the Giants do, but the Saints have two weeks to prepare for the Giants which is a big help for them.

4. New York Giants: 6-3

vs Philadelphia, at New Orleans, vs Green Bay, at Dallas, vs Washington, at NY Jets, vs Dallas

Final Record, 11-5: The Giants have a brutal end schedule, but they should still win the division. They get a wounded Philadelphia team next week at home. New Orleans and Green Bay back to back is tough, and if they can get a split there that would be great. I think they split with Dallas because the Cowboys are good enough to win at least one game. But the Giants still win the division in the end.

5. Detroit Lions: 6-3

vs Carolina, vs Green Bay, at New Orleans, vs Minnesota, at Oakland, vs San Diego, at Green Bay

Final Record, 10-6: The Lions started off hot and were the darlings of the NFC. But they slowed down recently and have a rough end schedule to take care of. They have a back-to-back slate against New Orleans and Green Bay as well. The final game at Green Bay could be the deciding game, and I expect the Packers to still be fighting for home field in Week 17. The Lions were a good story at first, but they've been exposed as of late, especially for their lack of a running game with Jahvid Best out.

6. Chicago Bears: 6-3

vs San Diego, at Oakland, vs Kansas City, at Denver, vs Seattle, at Green Bay, at Minnesota

Final Record, 11-5: I think the Bears have finally turned the corner, but I think they lose one of those weird games like they have a tendency to do at times. I picked the Denver game because it seems like the best spot to do so. The Bears are playing some good football and I don't see how they miss the playoffs with this schedule, especially with the AFC West four weeks in a row. But Mike Martz has finally found a way to mold an offense around Jay Cutler, and with Matt Forte in the back field and the always dangerous Devin Hester, this team could be a threat in January.

7. Dallas Cowboys: 5-4

at Washington, vs Miami, at Arizona, vs NY Giants, at Tampa Bay, vs Philadelphia, at NY Giants

Final Record, 11-5: Another team that benefits from a lackluster end of the season schedule. There would really be no excuses for the Cowboys to lose the next few games. All of them are games they should win. The Giants game at home will be a big one. If they don't win that one, then they might as well kiss a chance at the division good bye. That Tampa Bay game may be a tricky one if the Bucs could ever get their stuff together and show the promise they had last year. I think the Cowboys finish strong though and find a way to get into the playoffs.

8. Atlanta Falcons: 5-4

vs Tennessee, vs Minnesota, at Houston, at Carolina, vs Jacksonville, at New Orleans, vs Tampa Bay

Final Record, 10-6: Despite getting shut down Sunday by Tennessee, I've maintained all along that the Panthers could play spoiler the rest of the year. I think they have a good shot of doing it here. They hung with the Falcons for the most part in Atlanta, and I think they win in Carolina. The home loss to New Orleans may hurt, but like I said above I defend Mike Smith's decision. If your offense can't get a quarter of a yard, you don't deserve to win that football game. But unfortunately, that decision keeps the Falcons out of the playoffs.

FINAL NFC STANDINGS

1. San Francisco 49ers  15-1

2. Green Bay Packers  15-1

3. New Orleans Saints  13-3

4. New York Giants  11-5

5. Dallas Cowboys  11-5

6. Chicago Bears  11-5

-------------------------------------

7. Atlanta Falcons  10-6

8. Detroit Lions  10-6

Three Games I'd Like To See Next Week

NY Jets vs Denver Broncos: Can the Jets shut down the Broncos Option Offense?

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens: Which Ravens team will show up, and can the Bengals rebound?

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons: Two teams fighting for their playoff lives.

Until Next Time,

Justin C

Follow Me on Twitter @JCWonka

NFL Week 10 Picks

All 32 teams are playing this week. Plus we have our first Thursday night game of the year. Another solid set of games as well. Lets get to it.

Last Week's Record: 8-6
Year to Date Record: 84-46

Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers
Two teams on big slides here. Ever since the Raiders lost Jason Campbell they've been on a slide. The Raiders have lost two games in a row since losing him, both to AFC West opponents. The Raiders swept the AFC West last year but haven't won a single game in it this year. And now, people are starting to question if the power Hue Jackson has received since the passing of former owner Al Davis has gone to his head. Jackson pretty much benched WR Darieus Heyward-Bay and TE Kevin Boss last week. Jackson said the offensive packages but in place for the game didn't fit their strengths. Yeah sure. Plus Carson Palmer didn't look to great in his debut. The Chargers have lost 3 games in a row and there appears to be something getting to Philip Rivers. He's having one of the worst years of his career and it's affecting the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers actually had a chance to beat the Packers last week if it wasn't for Rivers two pick-6's. Both of these teams need this game. I think the loss of Darren McFadden for another week hurts the Raiders more than they think, and there is too much questioning of Hue Jackson going on. Chargers win a close one.

San Diego 26  Oakland 24

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles
This was suppose to be Kevin Kolb's big return to Philadelphia. But Kolb is unlikely to play due to a foot injury. The Cardinals won their first game since Week 1 last week against St. Louis thanks to an amazing Patrick Peterson 99 yard punt return for a touchdown in overtime. But the Cardinals still looked bad offensively with John Skeleton at QB. Philadelphia was upset by the Chicago Bears at home on Monday night football. That loss put the Eagles at 3-5 and all but shut the door on their playoff chances. It's going to take at least 10 wins to get into the playoffs in the NFC, and I don't know if this Eagles team can win 7 of their last 8. They have all the talent in the world but can't seem to mesh together as a team. But they start a potential comeback with a win here. Mike Vick should tear a poor Cardinals secondary to shreds and the Eagles defense will double Larry Fitzgerald and pressure John Skeleton all day long.

Philadelphia 31  Arizona 13

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers
Tennessee just can't seem to put everything together for an extended period of time. They beat Baltimore at home in Week 2, but they haven't beaten any other team that is better than them this year. They are the classic definition of a mediocre team. They beat the bad teams but can't beat the good teams. And of course, Chris Johnson is playing terrible. Johnson had his first decent game last week, getting over 100 yards from scrimmage in defeat. It's sad that that is considered good now for Johnson. The guy used to run for over 100 yards a game on a regular basis. The Titans pass defense got beaten badly by Andy Dalton last week, giving up 3 touchdowns to 3 different WRs. That's bad news heading into this week's match-up with the Carolina Panthers. Cam Newton spreads the ball around a lot. Plus he runs the ball a lot. Newton should be able to find open WRs all day. The Panthers are my pick for "Late Season Spoilers" in the NFL. They could be the team that squashes playoff hopefuls chances in the second half. Their offense is legit and their defense can hang with offenses. It won't shut teams down but it can limit them. The Panthers win here with Cam Newton running wild on the Titans defense.

Carolina 34  Tennessee 27

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Texans seem to be coming together. After losing two in a row, they've reeled off 3 straight wins. The offense is still going even without star WR Andre Johnson. And that's because of their new two-headed monster at RB in Adrian Foster and Ben Tate. It's a smart move by Texans Coach Gary Kubiak. Foster has been a bit injury prone in his short career, and having Tate help share the work load will keep Foster healthy and limit his touches heading into the playoffs. And trust me, the Texans will make the playoffs. There is no one else in the division that is better than them. The defense is a bit shaky and it may hurt them come playoff time, but no one can compete with the Texans in the AFC South. The Buccaneers have struggled a bit this year after high expectations coming into the season. The young Tampa team is 4-4 and not playing as well as they did last year during their 10-6 season. Josh Freeman isn't playing as well, and Mike Williams has hit a wall. The defense took a big hit losing DT Gerald McCoy for the year. They signed Albert Haynesworth, but you have to question if he has anything left after being cut by New England. I don't think Tampa has the same magic that they had last year. Houston wins here because of their offense.

Houston 27  Tampa Bay 21

Washington Redskins vs Miami Dolphins
It seems that these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Dolphins have played hard the last few weeks and it finally paid off with a big win against Kansas City last week. They shut down a red hot Chiefs team. Reggie Bush has looked really good, and Matt Moore looked competent under center last week. Plus the defense came alive and pressured Matt Cassel into bad decisions. The Redskins, meanwhile, have looked terrible offensively since handing the reigns to Jon Beck. They've scored a combined 44 points in the last 4 weeks, including getting shut out by Buffalo. The only bright spot has been youngster Roy Helu who played well last week against San Francisco. You have to wonder if the Redskins will even win another game this year because they are so bad on offense. You know both of these teams want Andrew Luck, especially Mike Shanahan. Maybe they will just take knees and intentional safeties all game? Who knows. But the Dolphins are playing the better football of the two, and they win their second in a row here.

Miami 20  Washington 12

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
If the Colts have a chance to win a game this year, this game is it. The Colts have looked downright dreadful the last 3 weeks. Before the New Orleans blowout games were at least being kept close. Now it doesn't even look like the Colts care anymore. But if they have any pride, they should be able to compete here. Jacksonville's defense has improved in recent weeks so the Colts might have some difficulty moving the ball. While Jacksonville's defense has improved, their offense is still stuck in neutral. Blaine Gabbert still hasn't improved too much since becoming the starting QB. The offense still hasn't scored more than 20 points with Gabbert under center. Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to run free here against a shabby Colts defense. While many think the Colts have packed it in, I like their chances to win here before the bye week.

Indianapolis 21  Jacksonville 19

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Don't look now, but Tim Tebow has the Broncos one game out of first place in the AFC West. Tebow again didn't have great stats or look good against Oakland, but he did enough to get the job done against the Raiders. Now Tebow faces another road test against the Kansas City Chiefs, who were just picked apart by Matt Moore and the Dolphins. The good news for Tim Tebow is that Willis McGahee looked really good in his return from his hand injury, running for 163 yards and two scores. The defense also picked off Carson Palmer three times, an improvement after getting torn up by Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions a week earlier. The Chiefs were embarrassed at home by Miami after a big win the week before on Monday night against San Diego. The Chiefs were lucky to win that game, and they couldn't carry the momentum over to the next week. Poor Todd Haley had to shave his beard off, and now he has to get this Chiefs team refocused for this big division showdown. The Chiefs have a BRUTAL five game schedule after this: at New England on Monday night, home to Pittsburgh on Sunday night (although this could be flexed), at Chicago, at NY Jets, home to Green Bay. They need this one bad, but they don't get it. The Broncos keep winning, and the media keeps praising Tim Tebow.

Denver 30  Kansas City 23

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys
The Bills received a big butt kicking last week at the hands of the NY Jets. They were out matched in every aspect of the game last week against the NY Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick made some bad throws, the offense couldn't get going, and the defense couldn't get off the field. The Bills are still a good football team, but these next two weeks will show just how far they have come this year. The Bills next three games are all on the road, where they have struggled this year and are only 1-2. But Ryan Fitzpatrick should find more openings against Dallas. The Cowboys don't have the same personnel the Jets do to stop the Bills offense. The Cowboys are coming off another one of those games where they beat a weaker team, this time Seattle, and face a good team the next week in the Bills. After the Cowboys beat the Rams easily, they were then demolished by the Eagles. After they beat the Redskins they blew a big lead late against Detroit. Tony Romo will be without Miles Austin for the next few weeks, but Romo should focus on handing the ball off to DeMarco Murray here and looking for Jason Witten, as the Bills have struggled to stop the run and tight ends in coverage. This one is close to the end, but I'm still not sold on the Cowboys. The Bills rebound after last week's ugly loss.

Buffalo 28  Dallas 27

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
This should be a good game. The winner takes the lead in the race to win the NFC South. The Saints have struggled a bit in recent weeks. Take away the Colts blowout, and all of their recent games have been close. They were beaten rather easily by the Rams, which is a bad thing. Tampa Bay kept last week's game close throughout and Tampa also beat the Bucs in Tampa a few weeks ago. Drew Brees still has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but he's been struggling a bit. The Falcons, meanwhile, have won three straight heading into this match-up. Rookie WR Julio Jones returned from injury last week and finally scored his first two touchdowns of his career in a breakout game for him. Jones give QB Matt Ryan another weapon to look for in his arsenal. The defense is also playing much better. I thought the Falcons were going to struggle after a poor start, but they rebounded nicely and seem to be back to last season's form. The Falcons are playing really good football, the Saints are not. Give me the Falcons here.

Atlanta 31  New Orleans 21

St. Louis Rams vs Cleveland Browns
The Rams looked brutal again last week against Arizona after lighting up the Saints the week before. Sam Bradford threw for a lot of yards, but couldn't get his team in the end zone. The Rams continue to disappoint this year after having high expectations. Injuries have been a major reason, as well as a brutal early schedule. Expect a heavy dose of Steven Jackson here, as the Browns have one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Browns are also disappointing on offense. The "Madden Curse" has taken down Peyton Hillis, and he's become a bigger distraction then he needs to be with his contract situation. Colt McCoy isn't playing well either. This could be an ugly game. I think the Rams have more talent, so I'm picking them to win.

St. Louis 17  Cleveland 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Well, time to find out what these Bengals are really made of. Their first division test against the main stays at the top of it. The Bengals just won't go away. They beat the Titans last week to improve to 6-2 overall and a tie for first atop the AFC North. Andy Dalton isn't playing like a rookie. If it wasn't for Cam Newton, he would be the Rookie of the Year in the NFL hands down. And the defense is playing great football as well. They haven't allowed more than 24 points all year in a game, which is outstanding considering some of the high scores we've seen in the league so far this year. The Steelers are coming off a disappointing home loss to Baltimore which saw them blow a lead with less than 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You have to think that this will motivate the Steelers a bit here. Ben Roethlisberger, no matter who he plays, has found his WRs with ease and that should continue here. There are just too many weapons at Pittsburgh's disposal for Cincinnati to stop, so I'm taking the Steelers here. The Bengals downfall begins.

Pittsburgh 27  Cincinnati 20

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks
Just when you think the Ravens are falling apart, they rebound and beat the Steelers for the second time this year. You have to now consider them the favorites in the AFC North, especially since they have the tiebreaker over the Steelers. Joe Flacco looked terrible for two weeks, then he lead a game winning drive to win the game against Pittsburgh. Ray Rice should still be the focal point of the offense, but if Flacco continues to improve the Ravens may become the favorites in the AFC again. Seattle has pretty much lost all of their home field advantage with their terrible play this year. They have no NFL QB on their roster. No WRs, and the defense can't stop the pass. This should be an easy one for Baltimore, even though they struggled against Jacksonville and Arizona. But the Ravens have turned a corner starting with last week's win.

Baltimore 38  Seattle 21

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers
The Giants started the rough stretch of their schedule exactly how they needed to, with a win at New England. Eli Manning lead another late comeback and the Giants continued to maintain a two game lead in the NFC East. The defense pressured Tom Brady and there's no reason to think they can't do the same against Alex Smith. The Giants also beat the Patriots without RB Ahmad Bradshaw and WR Hakeem Nicks. Both of those men may be out again this week, and they may actually hurt the Giants because the 49ers have a much better defense than the Patriots do. San Francisco has matched every challenge thrown at them this year, with their only loss coming in overtime to Dallas. The 49ers are for real, and not just a by-product of the terrible NFC West. Jim Harbaugh has lit a fire under these players and they seem to be taking to his coaching style. But Frank Gore has been limited in practice all week with an ankle injury. If he doesn't play because that hurts the 49ers, because then the Giants can focus even more on shutting down Alex Smith. I really like how the Giants have come together and think they pull off another big win on the road here.

NY Giants 24  San Francisco 20

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
Just when you think the Bears are done, they come back and win a big game in Philadelphia. The Bears are playing some good football in recent weeks. They've won 3 in a row since losing to Detroit in Detroit on Monday Night Football. The offensive line has done a better job of protecting Jay Cutler in recent weeks, and the team continues to rely on Matt Forte who leads all NFL players in yards from scrimmage. I didn't think the Bears would be good at all this year, but they are quickly proving me wrong. The Lions had a bye week to rest up and prepare for this big game. They dismantled the Broncos the week before their bye, which is something they needed after losing two straight home games. Matthew Stafford continues to rely on Calvin Johnson the most, but he has also spread the ball out more to some of his targets. The Lions defense, specifically their pass rush, is also improved. This game is a real toss up to me. The Bears are riding the momentum of their huge win in Philly, but the Lions have had two weeks to prepare for this one. I think the Lions are the better team, but the Bears win here because they have played the better football in the last month.

Chicago 23  Detroit 20

New England Patriots vs New York Jets
How the tides have turned since these teams last match-up. The Jets had lost two in a row while the Patriots were 3-1. Now, the Jets are on a three game winning streak and the Patriots have lost two in a row. This is not the same Patriots team we have seen in recent years. Sure, they still have Tom Brady and Bill Bellicheck, but the defense is nothing like it was during the Championship years. They can't stop anything in the secondary at all. The organization has missed on several of their defensive draft picks in recent years. Tom Brady can't do everything for this team. Lots of people know that the offense is now one dimensional. Defenses don't need to worry about stopping the run game because they don't have won. You can't win games in January with no running game. The Jets have rediscovered their run game in recent weeks and that has helped ease the pressure on Mark Sanchez. Sanchez has played better in recent weeks and so have his WRs, specifically Plaxico Burress. This has helped ease the pressure on their defense. The defense didn't have to worry about staying on the field long against the Bills as the offense was able to continue drives and not go with quick 3-and-outs. It's rare that the Patriots lose three games in a row, but I think it happens here. The Jets are the better team and the Patriots are struggling. Hell, they may MISS the playoffs.

NY Jets 31  New England 28

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
The Vikings have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Christian Ponder had one week last time and almost beat the Packers. Of course that was at home. This one is in Lambeau, on Monday night. Aaron Rodgers is throwing touchdown passes at will and is easily the favorite for MVP. Rodgers just has so many weapons at his disposal and defenses have a hard time focusing on just one to stop. Teams can beat Green Bay if they have a good secondary and pass rush, which is something the Vikings do not have. They also need to have an offense that can put up points in bunches, which is again something the Vikings don't have. Adrian Peterson will score a couple touchdowns, but this one is all Packers.

Green Bay 42  Minnesota 23

My Vegas $$$ Picks
Last Week's Record: 3-1
Year to Date Record: 22-13-1

Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas: Cowboys aren't that good, Bills aren't that bad.

Green Bay -13.5 vs Minnesota: Packers are two TDs better than Minnesota, especially at home.

Carolina -3.5 vs Tennessee: Titans offense can't hang with Panthers.

Indianapolis +3 vs Jacksonville: If the Colts don't win this week, then they might not at all.

That's it from me today.

Until Next Time,
Justin C
Follow Me On Twitter @JCWonka